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strikeJul 22, 2026

A new front is opening in the Iran war. Oil faces ‘no way out’ | CNN Business

Summary

The Houthis’ blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb strait couldn’t have come at a worse time for the oil market. Iran’s proxies in Yemen have threatened to cut off a major bypass of the Strait of Hormuz, through which oil tanker traffic has slowed dramatically in recent days. So far, the Houthis have been unable or unwilling to enforce the blockade that the militant group announced Tuesday. But the threat alone has persuaded some ships to abandon their plans to exit the Red Sea heading south. An effective Houthi blockade of Bab al-Mandeb would create a new front in the war with Iran, potentially requiring US military intervention that could then erode US ability to help ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. It also could prevent the Saudis from getting diesel to Europe at a crucial time for the fuel market. Oil prices have already surged $20 a barrel this month after war broke out again in the Middle East. It could rise more if the workaround no longer works. Bab al-Mandeb Like the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb is an exceedingly narrow waterway through which a significant chunk of the global economy transits. It’s just 14 miles wide at its narrowest point between Saudi Arabia and Djibouti, about 40% narrower than Hormuz. Bab al-Mandeb isn’t as crucial as the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of oil – 20% of the world’s daily supply – typically transited before the war. But Bab al-Mandeb is no slouch: About 6.2 million barrels of oil have been traveling through that strait every day over the past month, according to Kpler. A significant chunk of that oil would normally have been destined for the Persian Gulf, but Saudi Arabia instead has sent it via its massive East-West pipeline to its major Red Sea port of Yanbu. The Saudis have diverted roughly 4 million to 5 million barrels of oil per day from the Persian Gulf through Yanbu, according to Helima Croft, head of global strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “If that route becomes inoperable, then the oil supply disruption becomes more serious and we start talking again about a ‘no way out’ situation,” Croft said. Taking 4 million barrels off the market would be roughly comparable to the amount that China stopped importing during the war – an action oil analysts say has helped keep energy prices relatively low despite the record-smashing oil supply shock. A full blockade of Bab al-Mandeb could send oil through that price ceiling, at least $5 to $10 a barrel higher – above $100 a barrel, according to Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. The biggest loser(s) If ships are unable or unwilling to transit the Red Sea heading south, their only path would be north through the Suez Canal. But that would let the ships out in the Mediterranean Sea instead of the Indian Ocean, which isn’t exactly a great path to get Saudi Oil to its biggest customer: Southeast Asia. About 2.5 million to 3.5 million barrels of Saudi oil heads out of Yanbu each day through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Asian countries, which don’t produce much oil, have been hit hardest by the crude supply crunch during the Iran war. Saudi Arabia’s ability to get oil out via an alternate path had alleviated a lot of that stress. Europe also can’t be too happy about the Houthis’ threat. Saudi Arabia ships roughly 230,000 barrels of diesel through the Suez Canal from refineries close to Yemen, putting them at risk of Houthi attack, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. Diesel has surged more than 40 cents a barrel over the past couple weeks after war broke out again in the Middle East and Ukraine bombarded Russian refineries with drone strikes. Already working Houthi militants on Tuesday broadcast to Saudi vessels that they should avoid the Red Sea, and some ships have been taking the message seriously – with good reason: Houthis attacked ships in the area earlier in the war. Five tankers made U-turns after the announcement, according to Windward Intelligence. A tanker that departed Yanbu carrying oil destined for China Tuesday turned back at the Yemen border under Houthi threats, a risk manager for a Fortune 500 company told CNN. The risk manager requested anonymity to discuss sensitive business interests. President Donald Trump said in the Oval Office Tuesday that the US military could become involved if the Houthis take more serious action. “So far, it hasn’t happened. Might happen, but we take care of things,” he said. “We’ve done that with the Houthis before, and we haven’t heard from them in a while since we did what we did originally.” But the US Navy is busy blockading Iranian ports and is struggling to persuade shipping companies to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran struck multiple oil tankers over the past couple days, slowing strait traffic to just a handful of crossings – down from roughly 50 to 70 per day shortly after Iran and the United States signed their Memorandum of Understanding in mid-June. If America’s military needs to fight the war on a new front, it could stretch its ability to help guide crude through either chokepoint. CNN’s Davis Winkie contributed to this report

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  • David GoldmanBy David Goldman

    The Houthis’ blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb strait couldn’t have come at a worse time for the oil market. Iran’s proxies in Yemen have threatened to cut off a major bypass of the Strait of Hormuz, through which oil tanker traffic has slowed dramatically in recent days. So far, the

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Top Israeli Minister: 'Best For Us' If US Fights Iran While Israel Sits Out New Round of War

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“The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States," far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said in a session at the Katif Conference for National Responsibility, which endorses Jewish settlement in Palestinian territories. "The current situation is the best one for us.” Bezalel Smotrich leads the Religious Zionism party and wants Israel to annex the West Bank and Gaza (MENAHEM KAHANA / AFP)

Smotrich is generally regarded as the second-most powerful cabinet member in Israel, and is a vital linchpin in Netanyahu's government that took power in January 2023. Lacking an outright majority, Netanyahu was forced to build a ruling coalition that gives unprecedented power to religious and ultra-nationalist extremists. Smotrich leads the Religious Zionism party. He personally aspires to make Israel a theocracy, wants Israel to annex the West Bank and Gaza while barring most Palestinians from citizenship, and has said it would be "just and moral" to starve two million Palestinian men, women and children in Gaza.

In his latest remarks, Smotrich candidly acknowledged that Israel and the United States have different goals vis a vis Iran, but said America's continued military engagement furthers the Israeli agenda. “[We] must remember that the ultimate goal of Israel, and not necessarily the United States, is to undermine and weaken the regime in Iran – to the point of overthrowing it,” Smotrich said. Army SGT Michael Swinton was killed July 19 when a controlled detonation of an Iranian drone went terribly wrong (Mia Gonzalez-Swinton via Guardian)

Disregarding the widespread victimization of innocents that the strategy entails, Smotrich said destruction of Iran's economy will help precipitate the Iranian government's collapse. "Currently, inflation in Iran is at 85 percent, food inflation of over 134 percent in a total of four months, and the Iranian rial is trading at an exchange rate of 1.9 million to the dollar - and it's going up." He then reiterated that "the current situation is good for us, and there's no point in pushing ourselves inward."

Footage of the Iranian ballistic missile strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan last night. At least two missiles hit the base, killing two American service members. pic.twitter.com/8tOm6yyXwe — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 18, 2026 Here's how Israeli journalist Hagai Amit recently described the benefits of Israel allowing the United States to plunge forward alone in the war that Israel urged America to start:

It reduces the risk of [Israeli] casualties and allows daily life to continue largely as normal, without midnight sirens, trips to bomb shelters or major disruptions. The Finance Ministry is also relieved not to have to burden the state budget with billions of additional shekels for air operations and the interception of ballistic missiles.

Meanwhile, as Amit warmly describes the cost savings for Israel, various analysts say America's cost of the Iran quagmire is now close to or even exceeding $100 billion, which is upwards of triple what the Pentagon has owned up to at this point. 1LT Tyler Feehan and PVT Isabella Gonzales were two of three Army soldiers killed in the Iranian strike on US forces at base in Jordan

Of course, the highest price is being paid by American service members who've been thrown into an unconstitutionally-initiated war launched on false premises. Four more US soldiers have been killed since Trump re-escalated the war. In addition to US Army SGT Michael Swinton being killed in Iraq when a controlled detonation of an Iranian drone went wrong, three more soldiers were killed in an Iranian strike that hit prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.

Initially, the Pentagon confirmed only two fatalities in Jordan: 19-year-old PVT Isabella Gonzales and 1LT Tyler Feehan. The third was classified as MIA, but the Pentagon is now saying SGT Angel Rampersad is "believed to be deceased."  The grim implication is that Rampersad's body was devastated by an Iranian missile -- nearly five months after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that Iran's military had been "made combat-ineffective," and almost two months after Sen. Ted Cruz said US forces had "destroy[ed] all of their missiles and drones."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/22/2026 - 12:05

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The Jordanian military has issued a series of statements saying that its air defense system has once again intercepted multiple missiles that entered Jordanian airspace from abroad. The Jordanian government emphasized that safeguarding national sovereignty and airspace security is the air forces' top priority, and called on the international community to de-escalate regional tensions as soon as possible to prevent further spillover of the conflict.

For Jordan, Aqaba is not only a tourist city, but also plays a vital role as the country's only outlet to the sea, and most of the country's import and export goods are transported through here. If the regional security situation remains tense, it will not only upset the tourism industry, but could also have a ripple effect on the country's logistics, energy supply, and overall economy, said affected residents.

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CAIRO — A declared blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthi rebels has the potential to widen the Iran war and further disrupt global oil supplies and international trade. The rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked shipping in retaliation for the kingdom’s blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on the international airport in Yemen’s rebel-held capital, Sanaa.

The Houthis claim to have forced six ships to reroute on Tuesday, but there was no independent confirmation. Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a vital shipping chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Around 12% of the world’s trade, including a fourth of global container traffic, passes through the narrows, moving between Europe and Asia via Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The strait has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has severely limited shipping out of the Persian Gulf. The Houthis say they will only stop vessels connected to Saudi Arabia or going in and out of its Red Sea ports.

But during a similar blockade announced against Israel over the war in Gaza, the rebels attacked many vessels with little or no connection to that conflict. The threat alone could keep international shippers from using the route. Sporadic attacks could largely block the waterway The Houthis don’t control the part of Yemen’s coastline along Bab el-Mandeb — that’s in the hands of its opponents in the country’s civil war.

But they hold territory less than 100 kilometers (60 miles) away. Three Houthi officials told the AP on Tuesday that the group has planned for months how to disrupt shipping in the strait. Those plans include the use of naval mines, explosive-laden boats, drones and helicopters to allow fighters to board ships, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to media.

They said vessels would first be warned not to cross designated boundaries in the strait. If ships ignore the warnings, the Houthis would resort to military action. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown that even sporadic attacks on ships can be enough to effectively close a critical waterway, by driving up risks and insurance premiums.

Global trade could be disrupted at a second chokepoint “If Bab el-Mandeb comes under pressure at the same time as shipping in the Gulf, you have disruption around two of the world’s most important maritime routes at once,” Clionadh Raleigh, the founder of ACLED, a conflict monitoring service, said Tuesday.

More than 7 million barrels of petroleum a day transited Bab el-Mandeb in June, compared to around 4 million before the Iran war, Allison Minor, the director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration, wrote in an analysis published Monday.

Saudi Arabia has been recently exporting some 4 million barrels of oil a day through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, blunting the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has still rattled economies around the world. Saudi Arabia could still get crude to market without using Bab el-Mandeb, by shipping up to 2.

5 million barrels a day across the Red Sea to Egypt, whose SUMED pipeline can carry it to the Mediterranean. It could also ship 1 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal. International shippers could also reroute, as they did at the height of the war in Gaza.

But that means going the long way around the Cape of Good Hope off South Africa, adding one or two weeks to voyages — and raising costs. Attacks could draw retaliation and reignite Yemen’s war The Houthis attacked over 100 vessels at the height of the war in Gaza, before a punishing U.

S. and Israeli air campaign put an end to the attacks in early 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump brushed off the latest threat. “So far, it hasn’t happened,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. “I think that if there is something like that, we’ll just have to take care of business.

” The Houthis also run the risk of reigniting the war with Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen, where major fighting ended with a truce in 2022. Saudi Arabia’s military says it will keep Bab el-Mandeb open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen. Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesperson. Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when the rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen, forcing the government into exile. Saudi Arabia has led an international coalition fighting the rebels and also imposed an air and sea blockade on Houthi-held parts of Yemen, which had eased in recent years.

The Houthis say Saudi Arabia struck the airport in Sanaa earlier this month in an attempt to stop a flight carrying Houthi leaders back from Iran, where they had attended the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The plane landed safely at another airport.

The Houthis then launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport in the most significant confrontation in years. The Houthis say closing Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi traffic aims to break the coalition’s blockade. Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the blockade also benefits the Houthis’ ally, Iran, at a time when the U.

S. has resumed daily airstrikes. ″From Iran’s perspective, opening additional pressure points across the region gives it more leverage,” Nagi said. “The Houthis provide Tehran with influence over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.

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Iran warns Bulgaria against hosting US warplanes Published July 22, 2026, 11:20 a.m. ET See more of our coverage in your search results.Add The New York Post on Google Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman warned Bulgaria on Tuesday not to allow the US to use the European country’s territory for military operations against Iran.

Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said any activity that facilitates US attacks on Iran would amount to complicity in what he described as “aggression and war crimes”, according to Iranian state media quoted by Reuters. The warning follows word from the Bulgarian government that it would seek parliamentary approval to station up to eight U.

S. tanker aircraft at an air base in Bulgaria, a member of NATO and the European Union. Baghaei urged Bulgaria not to become “an accomplice of aggressors and lawbreakers”, they said. The tanker aircraft are mainly used for airborne refuelling of other aircraft, including during strikes.

Follow The Post’s coverage of the war in Iran: - Trump vows to destroy one Iranian bridge or power plant for every shot Tehran takes at Strait of Hormuz shipping - Rubio says US remains open to Iran talks but warns there ‘will be consequences’ - Fourth soldier believed to be killed in Iran attack ID’d as New Yorker – as US launches latest rounds of strikes - Trump warns Iran of much greater destruction if war continues: ‘They haven’t seen anything yet’ Bulgaria’s government aims to station the U.

S. aircraft at the Bezmer military facility, about 260 km (160 miles) southeast of the capital Sofia. The U.S. and Iran have intensified strikes since an interim ceasefire deal signed a month ago unraveled, raising the possibility of a return to all-out war.

Bulgaria’s government has called for hostilities involving Iran to end. It has not announced a decision to host U.S. military aircraft amid an internal debate on the issue.