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متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeApr 10, 2026

As the US and Israel's war with Iran simmers on, are we heading towards World War Three?

Summary

The US-Israeli war in Iran, Iran's retaliation across the Middle East, Israel's war in Gaza, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in Africa: It's not hard to see why many are concerned about the potential for another world war. After World War II ended in 1945, countries established the United Nations to prevent future conflict and promote peace. For a while, it worked. But now as world leaders defy the UN's recommendations and military security alliances such as NATO stand on shaky ground, post-war peace strategies are coming into question. Adding to concerns of a potential World War III, are US President Donald Trump's escalating threats against Iran and Iran's retaliation across the Middle East keeping the war, which started on February 28, simmering. However, whether we actually are headed towards another world war, from a technical point of view, is more nuanced. What is a world war? There is no clear definition of what constitutes a world war. The United Nations does not have one, but here is how some dictionaries define it: - Oxford: "A war involving many nations of the world" - Cambridge: "A war in which large forces from many countries fight" - Merriam-Webster: "A war engaged in by all or most of the principal nations of the world" David Kilcullen, who served in the Australian army for 22 years and worked as a diplomat for almost 30 years with both the Australian and US governments, said a world war usually involves overlapping conflicts and countries. "When you get multiple campaigns, usually in different continents, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and you have all the same combatants fighting in multiple campaigns at the same time in different continents, that's definitely a world war," he said. How close are we to another world war? Kilcullen said there is a potential for the conflict to expand into a world war if it connects with the Russian invasion of Ukraine or if China or North Korea use the situation as an opportunity to further their own agendas in Taiwan and South Korea, respectively. But he noted that we usually don't know we're in a world war until after the fact. "It's been in the eye of the beholder," he said. "If you think of World War II in retrospect, that looks to us like a world war, but at the time... it was really just a European war. "It was only when Hitler invaded Russia and then the Japanese attacked the US that suddenly it went from being a European war to being a world war." Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, who said he has spent the last 50 years studying global events that affect markets, laid out his 13 steps to a WW3 in his latest newsletter. He said the world is alreadt at step nine, which is when several multi-theatre conflicts happen simultaneously. Step nine is followed by countries demanding internal support for war, direct military combat between major powers, a big increase in taxes and debt with some markets shutting down, and finally one side winning the war against another. "Virtually nobody is talking about the fact that we are in the early stages of a world war that isn't going to end anytime soon," he said in a social media post. What would a world war mean for Australia? Australia has deployed military assets in the Middle East to defend citizens and civilians. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this week signed off on keeping the E-7A Wedgetail in the region "a period of time", but reiterated that Australia was not involved in any offensive capacity. While Australia is geographically placed away from the global conflicts, Kilcullen said it would be unable to distance itself fully from a world war due to its dependencies on global trade. "And that's the reason we've always tried to have a big ally, originally the British and then the Americans," he said. "That would be even worse, because we would definitely be in that war one way or another," he said. "The timeline that most people think is likely for a Chinese move on Taiwan could be as soon as next April, so we could be in the last 12 months before a really, really major conflict." NEVER MISS A STORY: Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms. - Download the 9NEWS App here via Apple and Google Play - Make 9News your preferred source on Google by ticking this box here - Sign up to our breaking newsletter here

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  • Yashee SharmaBy Yashee Sharma

    The US-Israeli war in Iran, Iran's retaliation across the Middle East, Israel's war in Gaza, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in Africa: It's not hard to see why many are concerned about the potential for another world war. After World War II ended in 1945, countries

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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

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The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on the Turkish bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sirketi, alleging it facilitated the transfer of Iranian oil revenues into cash and gold. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated these measures are part of "Operation Economic Outcast," an initiative launched following more than six months of conflict to pressure Iran.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

Location: Iran