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متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeMar 31, 2026

Dow jumps 200 points to start April as traders bet Middle East conflict will soon end: Live updates

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Dow jumps 200 points to start April as traders bet Middle East conflict will soon end: Live updates Stocks rose on Wednesday, while oil prices declined to start the month, as hope grew that an end to the U.S.-Iran war was on the horizon. The S&P 500 advanced 0.72% and closed at 6,575.32, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.16% and settled at 21,840.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 224.23 points, or 0.48%, to end at 46,565.74. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social Wednesday morning that Iran's president has asked the U.S. for a ceasefire. However, the U.S. will consider the offer when the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear," Trump added, writing that "until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!" This comes after the president told reporters at the White House late Tuesday that he expects the U.S. military forces will leave Iran in "two or three weeks." Oil prices eased following that comment. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down 1.24% to close at $100.12 per barrel and Brent crude futures lost 2.7% to settle at $101.16 a barrel. "The market is kind of just sniffing out that there's probably some type of resolution in the next couple of weeks," said Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist and head of multi-asset solutions at Madison Investments. Optimism around a potential end to the war sent stocks soaring on Tuesday, the final trading day of March. The moves came after an unconfirmed report said that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was open to ending the war with guarantees. He made similar remarks earlier in March, saying in an X post that the "only way to end this war ... is recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression." The market may not be out of the woods yet, to be sure. According to Ryan, unless there's "some type of all-clear announcement," trading should "remain volatile" in the short term. Investors will get more clues on the path forward for the U.S.-Iran war Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET, with Trump set to deliver an address "to the nation to provide an important update." Stocks end higher on Wednesday The three leading U.S. indexes finished with gains on Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to close the session at 6,575.32, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.16% to 21,840.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher by 224.23 points, or 0.48%, to end at 46,565.74. — Sean Conlon Industrials sector leads S&P 500 higher Nine out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were in positive territory in afternoon trading Wednesday, supporting the broad market index's gains. Industrials was the top-performing sector, seeing a rise of 1.9%. Communication services was next in line with a gain of 1.8%. Materials, information technology and consumer discretionary also all saw gains of more than 1%. Energy and consumer staples were the only two groups in the red, losing 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively. The S&P 500 was last up 0.9%. — Sean Conlon Market is seeing 'oversold rally,' says Renaissance's deGraaf The stock market should be able to rise around 1.5% higher following the strong Tuesday rally, according to Jeff deGraaf, chairman and head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research. "This is an oversold rally that was sparked by some news and some optimism," deGraaf said Wednesday on CNBC's "Money Movers." "But there's more to do." The S&P 500 notched its best day since May in Tuesday session with Wall Street hoping that the U.S.-Iran war could wind down. The broad index added 0.5% in afternoon trading Wednesday. To be sure, deGraaf noted that market breadth has not been as strong as he would typically like to see. — Alex Harring Oil funds see record trading volume amid U.S.-Iran war Exchange-traded funds tracking oil saw record-setting trading volumes in March as the U.S.-Iran war sent crude prices soaring. More than 1.4 billion shares of the United States Oil Fund (USO) — which tracks American spot prices — exchanged hands in the month, according to FactSet. That exceed the high below 800 million last seen in April 2020. The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), which follows the global crude benchmark, saw trading volume surpass 211 million. The prior monthly high set in 2022 was under 112 million. Both funds saw their biggest monthly gains on record in March. The USO ETF climbed more than 55%, while the BNO added more than 49%. — Alex Harring 5 stocks in the S&P 500 trade at new 52-week highs On Wednesday, five stocks in the S&P 500 traded at new 52-week highs. Tickers that hit this milestone included: - Pfizer trading at levels not seen since November 2024 - Ross Stores trading at all-time high levels since its IPO in August 1985 - Equinix trading at levels not seen since November 2024 - Sempra trading at all-time high levels not seen since June 1998 when Sempra was created through the merger of Pacific Enterprises and Enova - Entergy trading at all-time high levels back to when it began trading on the NYSE in 1949 On the other hand, 10 stocks in the index traded at new 52-week lows, such as: - Nike trading at lows not seen since October 2014 - Visa trading at lows not seen since November 2024 - Global Payments trading at lows not seen since April 2016 - Automatic Data Processing trading at lows not seen since June 2022 - Fidelity National Information trading at lows not seen since October 2013 - Broadridge Financial trading at lows not seen since June 2023 - CoStar Group trading at lows not seen since February 2019 - Insulet trading at lows not seen since September 2024 - Progressive trading at lows not seen since March 2024 - TransDigm trading at lows not seen since February 2024 — Lisa Kailai Han and Gina Francolla Nike shares head for worst day in around a year following earnings Nike shares are heading for their worst day in roughly a year after the athletic retailer posted a weak outlook. The Oregon-based firm's shares tumbled 14.3% in afternoon trading. If that holds, it would mark the worst day since early April of 2025, when the stock dropped 14.4%. Nike's guidance overshadowed a stronger-than-expected report for the third quarter. Shares are now down nearly 30% in 2026, on track for their fifth-straight negative year. — Alex Harring SpaceX confidentially files for IPO Elon Musk's SpaceX has confidentially filed for an initial public offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission, sources confirmed to CNBC's David Faber. Bloomberg first reported the development on Wednesday. The report said the filing puts the company on track for a June listing, and that a representative for SpaceX didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. The company merged with Musk's xAI in February, creating a combined entity that he valued at the time at $1.25 trillion. — Lora Kolodny and Davis Giangiulio Eli Lilly jumps after FDA approves its GLP-1 pill Shares of Eli Lilly rose 5% in midday Wednesday trading after the FDA approved its GLP-1 pill Foundayo. The pill will start shipping from the company's direct-to-consumer platform LillyDirect on Monday. Lilly added it will be available at pharmacies and on telehealth platforms shortly after that initial launch. Analysts estimate Foundayo sales will reach $14.79 billion by 2030, according to FactSet. — Angelica Peebles, Annika Kim Constantino and Davis Giangiulio Intel surges 9% after announcing it will buy back stake in Ireland chip plant in $14.2 billion deal Shares of Intel popped on Wednesday after the semiconductor manufacturer announced that it will repurchase a 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 joint venture from Apollo for $14.2 billion. Intel stock was last trading 9% higher. The repurchase will be funded through a mix of cash on hand and roughly $6.5 billion in new debt. The Ireland Fab 34 facility is central to Intel's global manufacturing footprint and produces chips using its latest process technologies, Intel 3 and Intel 4. The move unwinds a 2024 deal in which Apollo invested $11.2 billion into the facility, providing Intel with equity-like capital while preserving the semiconductor manufacturer's balance sheet strength. — Lisa Kailai Han ISM manufacturing tops estimates as prices index jumps Factory activity in the U.S. expanded in March, boosted by a gain in production, though inflationary impacts from the Iran war were evident, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM manufacturing index, a measure of firms reporting expansion for the period, hit 52.7 for the month, 0.3 points above February and slightly better than the 52.4 Dow Jones consensus estimate. Within the survey, the production index increased 1.6 points to 55.1 and supplier deliveries rose 3.8 points to 58.9. However, the prices index soared to 78.3, an increase of 7.8 points. Employment was little changed at 48.7. A reading above 50 in the ISM survey represents growth. — Jeff Cox HSBC upgrades Bank of America on strong credit record, EPS outlook Bank of America is trading at a discount, and investors would be wise to scoop up shares of the bank, according to HSBC Global Investment Research. The research arm of HSBC upgraded Bank of America stock to buy from hold. However, it lowered its price target on shares to $55 from $57, with the aim of incorporating "higher costs of equity on the back of greater macro uncertainties," according to its analysts' recent note to clients. "For BAC, we feel its leadership position across financial services businesses, better-than-average EPS growth outlook, and strong credit track record are no longer adequately reflected in its valuation," HSBC analyst Saul Martinez said Tuesday in a note to clients. The analyst added that "material multi-year ROE expansion is now less clearly priced in for universal banks," largely because of investors' increased focus on "downside macroeconomic risks (weaker growth/higher inflation) and credit concerns, especially around lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) and private credit exposure." Bank of America's call falls in line with consensus on the Street. Of the 27 analysts covering the stock, 23 have a buy or strong buy on shares. The stock has fallen 10% since the beginning of this year, underperforming the overall market. — Liz Napolitano Stocks open higher on Wednesday The three major averages began Wednesday's session in the green. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% shortly after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 363 points, or 0.8%. — Sean Conlon St. Louis Fed's Musalem sees rates steady 'for some time' St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said Wednesday he believes interest rates should held steady amid a "highly uncertain" economic backdrop. "The real policy rate, that is, the nominal rate adjusted for expected inflation, was already in the neutral range before the recent increase in energy prices and has declined further since," he said in remarks before the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. "I also believe the current policy rate appropriately balances the risks to our dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices and will likely remain appropriate for some time," he added. Musalem is a nonvoting participant at Federal Open Market Committee meetings this year. He will vote again in 2028. — Jeff Cox Oil prices fall to around $100 Crude prices declined on Wednesday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures falling to around $100 per barrel, as investors assessed the possibility of an end to the Iran conflict within weeks. WTI futures were last down 1.40% at $99.96 a barrel, as of 8:50 a.m. ET. Brent futures were down 2% to $101.89 a barrel. — Anniek Bao Retail sales rose 0.3% in February, better than forecast Retail sales were better than expected in February as consumers kept up a solid pace of spending ahead of the Iran war, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The headline sales number rose 0.6% for the month, according to figures adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.5%. Excluding auto-related expenditures, sales rose 0.5%, compared to the 0.3% estimate. On an annual basis, sales were up 3.7%. Clothing and related sales rose 2% for the month, leading all categories. Other sectors seeing gains included health care (2.3%), sporting goods, music and book stores (1.3%), motor vehicles and parts (1.2%) and miscellaneous (1.1%). Food and beverage stores and furniture stores both reported drops of 1%. Control group sales, which excludes a number of items and feeds directly into GDP calculations, increased 0.5%. — Jeff Cox Nike, Dave & Buster's Entertainment, PVH among the stocks making moves before the bell Check out the companies making the biggest moves premarket: - Nike — The athletic apparel stock slumped 10% after its North American revenue came in at $5.03 billion, while analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected $5.04 billion. However, Nike posted fiscal third-quarter earnings of 35 cents per share and $11.28 billion in revenue. That exceeded the expected earnings of 28 cents per share and the anticipated $11.24 billion in revenue. The stock also was weighed by downgrades from JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. - Dave & Buster's Entertainment — Shares rose 7% after management said the company expects an increase in same-store sales, revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization during 2026. Dave & Buster's posted a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 35 cents per share and revenue of $529.6 million. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected a profit of 39 cents per share and $555.9 million in revenue. - PVH — The clothing company, which owns brands Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, added 1% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.82 per share and revenue of $2.51 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of $3.31 per share and $2.43 billion in revenue, according to FactSet. Read the full list of stocks here. — Lisa Kailai Han and Davis Giangiulio Private sector hiring is better than expected in March, according to ADP Private sector employment growth was a bit better than expected in March, but health care and construction continued to provide nearly all the momentum, payrolls processing company ADP reported Wednesday. Job growth totaled 62,000 for the month, down just 4,000 from February's upwardly revised level but above the Dow Jones consensus for 39,000. ADP's report does not include government employees. Like February's report, two sectors essentially provided all the gains. Read more. — Jeff Cox Iran threatens attacks on Nvidia, Apple and other tech giants Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened attacks on a swath of U.S. tech companies with operations in the Middle East, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and Google. The IRGC warned on Tuesday that 18 tech companies would be considered as "legitimate targets" in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Attacks on those companies would begin from 8 p.m. on Wednesday, April 1, Tehran time (12:30 p.m. EDT), the IRGC said in a post on Telegram translated by Google, warning employees at those companies to leave workplaces immediately to protect their lives. "From now on, for every assassination, an American company will be destroyed," they said in an IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel. Read more. — Kai Nicol-Schwarz Bitcoin ekes out March gain, snaps 5-month losing streak Tuesday's broad market rally lifted bitcoin into positive territory to close out March trading. The flagship cryptocurrency rose 2% on Tuesday to end the month up 1.43% at $67,802.36, per Coin Metrics. That was bitcoin's first positive month in six. However, it still ended the first quarter down 22.36%, marking its second straight quarterly decline and its first back-to-back drop since 2022. Similarly, ether rose more than 3% Tuesday, ending the month up 6.7% at $2,095.73 — its first positive month in seven. It also ended down 29.3% for the quarter, its second straight quarterly loss. — Tanaya Macheel and Gina Francolla Trump to deliver address on Iran President Donald Trump is set to deliver an address on the Iran war on Wednesday night, the White House said. This will come after Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. will "be leaving [Iran] very soon." — Fred Imbert European stocks rebound Shares listed in Europe kicked off the new trading month with a strong rebound, after notching their worst month since 2022 in March. Shortly after the opening bell, the regional Stoxx 600 was seen trading 2% higher, with all major bourses and sectors besides oil and gas stocks trading in the green. The moves come after President Donald Trump said Tuesday that American forces would leave Iran in "two or three weeks," adding that the U.S. would end its war "whether we have a deal or not." — Joseph Wilkins and Chloe Taylor Asia markets surge on hopes that Iran war could end soon Asia-Pacific markets rebounded on Wednesday, with major markets mostly closing in positive territory on hopes that the Iran war, which has crippled energy supplies to the region, could end soon. South Korea's Kospi led gains in Asia, surging 8.44% to end at 5,478.7. The rise was the Kospi's largest gain since March 5, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 6.06% to close at 1,116.18. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 5.24% to 53,739.68, led by financial stocks, while the broad-based Topix added 4.95% and ended at 3,670.9. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 1.88% in its final hour of trade, powered by basic materials stocks, while mainland China's CSI 300 rose 1.71% to end at 4,526.06. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 2.24% and finished at 8,671.8, driven by a rise in educational services stocks. — Lim Hui Jie Asia markets rebound on hopes Iran war could end soon Asia markets rebounded Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the U.S. could leave Iran in about "two or three weeks." South Korea's Kospi led gains in the region, surging 6.3%, while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 5%, after data showed South Korean exports in March jumped 48.3% from a year earlier, beating Reuters poll estimates of 44.9%. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 3.85%, led by financial stocks, while the broad-based Topix added 3.55%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.95%, powered by basic materials stocks, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 rose 1.34%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 1.7%, driven by a rise in educational services stocks. — Lim Hui Jie Crypto asset manager CoinShares to debut on Nasdaq Wednesday Crypto investment firm CoinShares will start trading on the Nasdaq Wednesday. CoinShares will make its public debut through a merger with Vine Hill Capital, a special purpose acquisition company. The deal, which closed late on Tuesday, was first announced in September and values the business at about $1.2 billion. Read more on CoinShares' debut from CNBC's Tanaya Macheel here. — Darla Mercado Energy is the only sector out of 11 to close March higher Of the 11 GICS sectors, energy was the only one to close March in positive territory. Month to date, the sector rose 10.3%. It closed the quarter with a 37.2% surge. March's biggest laggards were industrial stocks, down 8.5%, followed by the health care and consumer staples sectors, off 8.3% and 7.7%, respectively. — Lisa Kailai Han Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: Nike, Dave & Buster's and more These are the stocks moving the most in extended hours trading: - Nike — The athletic apparel stock tumbled almost 9% after its North America revenue came in at $5.03 billion, while analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected $5.04 billion. The company also offered a weak sales outlook for its current quarter. - Dave & Buster's Entertainment — Shares rose 6% after management said the company expects an increase in same store sales, revenue and adjusted EBITDA during 2026. - RH — The home furnishings stock plunged 18%. RH said it sees full-year revenue growth ranging from 4% to 8%, missing the Street's estimate of 8.8%. Read the full list of stocks moving here. — Lisa Kailai Han Stock futures are little changed Stock futures traded just below flat on Tuesday night. Shortly after 6 p.m. ET, futures tied to all three major averages fell less than 0.1%. — Lisa Kailai Han

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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

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