متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeJul 17, 2026

Escalation of US-Iran Hostilities Pushes Crude Oil Sharply Higher

Summary

August WTI crude oil (CLQ26) on Friday closed up +3.54 (+4.48%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ26) closed up +0.1080 (+3.29%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied sharply on Friday, with crude posting a 5-week high and gasoline posting a 2-month high. Crude prices surged on Friday amid heightened concerns that the escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran could lead to a full-blown war that threatens crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices raced to their highs Friday afternoon after Axios reported that the Trump administration notified Israel it is sending more refueling planes to the country, a possible sign that US military operations could expand in the coming days.Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The US launched fresh strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive day on Friday, hitting coastal surveillance and air defense sites, military logistics infrastructure, and maritime assets. Iran responded by attacking US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, with Kuwait saying a desalination and electricity plant were hit, with many power-generation units sustaining damage. The Kuwaiti armed forces said it intercepted 32 Iranian drones targeting "vital" institutions. President Trump pledged to intensify the bombardment until Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that President Trump is leaning toward expanding military operations and discussed the seizure of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that US forces struck multiple bridges to cut supply routes to an Iranian port city and naval base used to support attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned on Wednesday that it's too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply in recent days. According to Bloomberg calculations based on vessel-tracking data and information from Kpler and Vortexa, the seven-day moving average of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian supplies, has slumped to about 5.5 million bpd through Wednesday from 9.4 million bpd before the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire. Crude oil and products also have support from strength in the crude crack spread. The crack spread rose to a record high on Friday, potentially persuading refiners to boost their crude oil purchases and refine it into gasoline and distillates. Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.91 million bpd in the first 10 days of July, the lowest in 21 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries. As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports. Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks. Signs of mounting global supplies are negative for crude prices, after the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report last Friday that the United Arab Emirates boosted crude oil production to an all-time high of 4.1 million bpd in June. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on June 17 that the Iran war’s impact on global oil demand will be much deeper than previously anticipated, saying world oil consumption will decline by -1.1 million bpd this year, a larger drop than a previous estimate of -420,000 bpd. The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) last Tuesday raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September. The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On Sunday, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult, as Middle East producers are still restarting output curtailed by the war in the region. OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -32% w/w to 82.85 million bbl in the week ended July 10. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 10 were -6.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -8.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 10 was unchanged w/w to 13.861 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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  • BarchartBy Barchart

    August WTI crude oil (CLQ26) on Friday closed up +3.54 (+4.48%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ26) closed up +0.1080 (+3.29%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied sharply on Friday, with crude posting a 5-week high and gasoline posting a 2-month high. Crude prices surged on Frid

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will. While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf.

It is raising questions about the strategy for the conflict's next phase. The intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, killed more American troops and sent U.S. gasoline prices back up, posing more problems for Republicans hoping to get reelected.

The Latest: Seeking calm for his country, Lebanon’s president will meet with Trump at the White House The landmark meeting between Joseph Aoun and Trump comes as Lebanon and Israel continue to hold rare direct talks mediated by Washington in a bid to bring about long-term calm in Lebanon after months of war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.

Lebanon hopes the talks will lead to Israeli troops withdrawing from large swaths of southern Lebanon, and for the Lebanese military to receive support to assert full control in areas where Hezbollah militants had held sway. Lebanon and Israel announced a “framework agreement” on June 26, setting a plan for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon as well as the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Aoun is scheduled to arrive at the White House at 11 a.m. Trump’s Justice seeking phone records of reporters’ mother and spouses Subpoenas for phone records of New York Times reporters now include the mother of one journalist and the spouses of two others as the Justice Department seeks to unmask the confidential sources of reporters who wrote about Trump’s Qatari-gifted Air Force One jet.

The Times’ lawyers have moved to quash the subpoenas, noting that the mother in question is a mental health professional with confidential client relationships and that one of the two spouses is the general counsel of a law firm. The Justice Department has previously said that the reporters are not the targets of the investigation and asserted in a new legal filing Tuesday that it had followed its own protocols in issuing the subpoenas.

U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian is scheduled to hear arguments Thursday. Appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to withhold recordings and transcripts of ghostwriter interviews The appellate panel’s 2-1 ruling late Monday found “substantial” public interest in disclosing what former President Joe Biden wants to keep under wraps.

Redactions to the recordings would help protect Biden’s privacy, the majority noted. The judges suspended their decision until Aug. 3 to allow more time for Biden to consider another appeal. Mark Zwonitzer, who worked with Biden on his two memoirs, interviewed the Democrat at his home in 2016 and 2017, before his presidency.

Biden’s lawyers say the conversations were candid, personal and intended to remain private. The recordings were obtained by special counsel Robert Hur, who investigated Biden’s handling of classified documents from his time as a senator from Delaware and as vice president.

Republicans demanded the material after Hur declined to file charges against the then-president. Civilian infrastructure now targeted by both the US and Iran Both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

Kuwait’s Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy Ministry said Tehran struck desalination and power plants for a fourth straight day on Monday night, causing fires and damage. Some 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water comes from desalination, making the attacks a matter of life and death for the tiny nation.

U.S. strikes have been hitting electrical equipment in Iran as well, and Iranian officials also have said Americans targeted water facilities. US command says its broad strikes are in response to Iran’s attacks on shipping The U.

S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in across six different provinces. Tanker attacks expand, forcing crew to abandon ship Traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd’s List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Iranian official meets mediators in Pakistan as attacks rage An Iranian official began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage the collapsed interim deal between Iran and the United States, even as both countries continued to launch attacks for a 10th day of renewed fighting.

The visit by Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni comes as Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the deal. However, it remains unclear just what new arrangement could be reached to end the fighting.

Momeni met Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Momeni later met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan’s political leadership and Munir, who serves as both the chief of army staff and defense forces, have worked to persuade the United States and Iran back to resume negotiations.

— By Munir Ahmed The limits of intensifying attacks emerge as US and Iran dig in The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will.

While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf. It is raising questions about the strategy for the next phase of the conflict as intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, left additional American troops dead and sent U.

S. gasoline prices back up — posing new problems for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Even with glimmers of hope for talks, the sides could be headed back to all-out war, with Trump warning that “every time Iran kills an American Soldier” going forward, “they will pay for that killing many times over.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
1 source

The head of the International Energy Agency stated on July 21 that escalation in Middle East hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure has heightened supply security concerns, while noting that markets retain cushioning factors including higher exports and alternative routing of Saudi and UAE crude.

He also cited threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as an additional risk. Reports indicate that Houthi declarations regarding potential Red Sea port blockades and shipping attacks prompted a restrained initial market response amid ongoing mediation references by Iran.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

Brent crude futures rose 1.8% to $90.84 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate contracts gained around 1.7-1.8% on Tuesday. Reports described a tanker struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, with reduced vessel crossings, alongside statements from a UBS analyst citing lower exports and Red Sea concerns, and from an Iranian official to Reuters regarding a proposed 10-day ceasefire.

U.S. and Iranian military actions were also referenced in connection with the events.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyEURussiaChina
1 source

US stock futures rose, with Nasdaq futures gaining 1.4% and S&P futures up 0.5% as of 7:20 a.m. ET, led by semiconductor stocks after gains in Japan and South Korea. A report indicated TSMC plans price increases, while overnight events included a Houthi-imposed blockade on Saudi Arabia amid tensions involving Iran.

Trading showed higher commodity prices, a steeper yield curve, and a flat dollar, with upcoming data releases including the ADP weekly employment change and Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index.

Location: Arak