Summary

Europe will face oil, kerosine shortages if Iran war continues: Rabobank If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts much longer, European countries will risk running into oil and kerosene shortages before the end of this year, Financieele Dagblad reports based on a stress test by Rabobank. Defense Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz said on Tuesday that the Netherlands is prepared to do more to secure the Strait of Hormuz, an important shipping route for oil and natural gas. For the time being, European oil reserves are large enough to absorb the consequences of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran, Rabobank concluded based on its own stress test. The bank stressed that it cannot predict when countries will run out of their stocks. A lot depends on how much high prices and rationing will decrease demand. But shortages are inevitable if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not pick up again within a few months. The flow of oil and oil products through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 14 percent of global demand. Only a limited portion of this can still be transported via pipelines. Once shortages start looming, a “substantial reduction in demand” will be inevitable, Rabobank said. Shortly after the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran in late February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published suggestions on how to reduce fuel usage, including working from home, no driving on Sundays, and lower speed limits on the highways. Residents of the Netherlands support several of these measures. Getting shipping traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz again is a priority for many world leaders. The Netherlands is prepared to do more to ensure the Strait remains safe for shipping once a ceasefire is in place, Defense Minister Yeşilgöz told ANP on Tuesday following a video meeting with Defense Ministers from countries in the Hormuz coalition. The Netherlands is prepared to send ships in addition to its current assistance with military planning, Yeşilgöz said. “One could consider mine fighting vehicles, divers, or a frigate,” she said. “It depends on what the defensive mission will look like after a ceasefire.” “Blocking or obstructing free passage is unacceptable, so we will take our responsibility,” Yeşilgöz said. In theory, the assistance can be arranged quickly, but the Hormuz coalition must determine when the time is right. “We all hope that is soon,” the Minister said.