متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeMay 10, 2026

Eyes on the Strait of Hormuz: Oil Prices Tumble

Summary

Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. Image: Supplied Financial markets across the globe await the possibility of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported that “As of May 8, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping due to an ongoing blockade following the outbreak of conflict between the US/Israel and Iran in late February 2026. While negotiations are ongoing, Iran has stated it will not reopen the waterway without its permission, suggesting a full reopening may not occur until the second half of 2026. This statement from Iran stopped a sharp decrease in the oil price on Friday. Markets were optimistic from last Tuesday to Thursday that the strait may be opened within the coming week. In reaction, the Brent oil price fell sharply from $113 last Monday to as low as $97 on intra-day trade on Thursday (7 May). This optimism saw the prices for precious metals recover quickly, and the Rand exchange rate appreciated strongly. The gold price increased last week by $184 to close Friday at $4,707, whilst the price of platinum shot up by $82 per ounce to $2,052 on Friday. The Rand exchange rate improved by 40 US cents from $16,80 last Monday to close at $16,40 last Friday. At one stage last Wednesday, the Rand traded as low as R16,26/$. This is only 30 cents weaker than the R15,96 the day before the Iran attack by the U.S. and Israel. The JSE share indices followed the same pattern, led by the JSE metal and mining index. The index improved by 6,65% last week. This strong increase pushed the Top 40 index higher by 4,8% last Thursday but given the uncertainty around the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the index ended the week 2,7% higher. The ALSI followed the same pattern, advancing quickly by 3,5% over the week until Thursday but lost 1,06% on Friday. Fuel Prices Given the sharp increase in the Brent oil price and the sharp depreciation in the Rand/$ exchange rate, the price for petrol was increased by R3,27 per litre and that for diesel by R5,26 per litre last Wednesday. The Minister of Finance, Mr Enoch Godongwana, renewed the lower fuel levy of R3,00 per litre for petrol and increased the lower fuel levy for diesel to R3,93 per litre. Both the price of petrol at R26,63 and diesel at R31,17 reached record prices last Wednesday. Many analysts feared that these prices may even rise again at the beginning of June, especially if the lower fuel levy expires. This will have a severe effect on prices throughout the economy, given the massive downstream effects on food and other input costs in the economy. The MPC of the Reserve Bank has already forecasted that the inflation rate for South Africa is expected to quickly increase from 3,1% in March to 5,0% by the second part of the year. Under such a scenario, a 50-basis point increase in interest rates was envisaged. The strong recovery in the oil price last Thursday and Friday, to levels just above $100 per barrel, and the appreciation of the Rand by 40 cents/$ had changed these fears. By last Friday, the price of diesel had already recovered by R2,48 cents per litre, whilst the price for petrol was still under recovered by 83 cents per litre. It is now expected that this more favourable position may improve over the next three weeks and that motorists may experience lower prices in June, especially for diesel. This coming week, financial markets will still be mostly affected by the events of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It was announced on Friday that the US economy added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This figure significantly exceeded the market forecast of 62,000. Together with the higher fuel prices in the US and the inflation rate for April that will be announced this Tuesday and is expected to remain at 2,3%, it is now a given that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet next week. The US will also release its retail sales for April this coming Thursday. Elsewhere, the UK will announce its economic growth rate (GDP) (preliminary estimation) for Q1 2025 on Thursday. Domestically, STATSSA will release the latest mining production figures for March on Thursday. Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education.

Perspectives

Iranian Official

In response to the unprovoked aggression launched by the US and Israel against Iran in late February 2026, the Islamic Republic has exercised its sovereign authority to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting any external dictates on its territorial waters. This act of resistance affirms Iran's right to control access through the waterway and conditions any reopening on its own terms, potentially not before the second half of 2026. By upholding this stance, Iran has thwarted market speculation and foreign pressure aimed at undermining its defensive measures.

Israeli

Israel's defensive campaign against Iran's nuclear and proxy network, launched in February 2026, remains essential to counter the regime's existential threat of strangling global energy routes. By maintaining its illegal blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran continues to weaponize shipping lanes, driving oil prices and exposing the direct costs of unchecked Iranian aggression.

Neutral

Financial markets have reacted to reports of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed to most commercial shipping as of May 8, 2026, following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel in late February 2026. According to CNBC, Iran has indicated that reopening would require its approval and may not occur until the second half of 2026. Oil prices fell from $113 to as low as $97 per barrel midweek before stabilizing, while gold rose $184 to $4,707 per ounce, platinum increased $82 to $2,052 per ounce, and the rand strengthened by 40 US cents to R16.40 against the dollar.

Western

Western and Israeli forces conducted precision strikes against Iranian military targets in late February 2026 to neutralize Tehran's threats and proxy networks, resulting in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic. Negotiations continue toward a controlled reopening aligned with coalition security objectives, though Iranian obstruction has delayed full transit until at least the second half of 2026. Temporary market optimism over a potential early reopening drove Brent crude down from $113 to $97, while gold, platinum, and the Rand saw corresponding gains.

Pro-Peace

The US/Israel-Iran conflict that erupted in late February 2026 has kept the Strait of Hormuz blockaded, strangling commercial shipping and inflicting mounting civilian hardship through disrupted food, medicine, and fuel supplies across the region. Iran’s insistence on controlled reopening only after negotiations highlights how military escalation continues to exact a human toll, with fleeting market optimism over a possible May reopening proving illusory. Diplomatic channels must be urgently pursued to end the blockade and avert further casualties rather than prolonging a standoff that benefits no one but arms suppliers.

Global South

In the aftermath of the US and Israeli February 2026 strikes on Iran, Tehran’s sovereign decision to maintain the Strait of Hormuz blockade has laid bare neo-colonial efforts to dominate energy routes vital to Global South economies. This assertion of control halted a steep Brent crude decline from $113 to $97 per barrel, lifted gold and platinum prices, and allowed the Rand to recover modestly from R16.80 to R16.40, revealing how Western-initiated conflicts inflict disproportionate costs on non-aligned states. The episode further exposes the impotence of international institutions in restraining such interventions.

Actors involved

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Sources

  • Louis HarmseBy Louis Harmse

    Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. Image: Supplied Financial markets across the globe await the possibility of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported that “As of May 8, 2026, the Str

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strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks A tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations says on Tuesday - Hormuz was deserted on Jul 21, with no ships observed transiting, data shows.

PHOTO: REUTERS [SINGAPORE] Another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as renewed hostilities empty the waterway, while a threat by Houthi rebels to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea heightened regional maritime risks. The Kaifan, an oil products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker, was the vessel attacked in the strait, according to security consultancy EOS Risk Group.

The ship was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations said earlier on Tuesday (Jul 21), without naming the tanker. Kuwait Oil Tanker did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment, and ship tracking data shows Kaifan last signalled its location more than a month ago near Sohar, Oman.

The attack on the Kuwaiti tanker follows strikes in recent days on vessels owned by Dynacom Tankers Management. Hormuz was deserted on Tuesday, with no ships observed transiting, data shows. Iran’s recent spate of attacks has focused on oil tankers shuttling through the strait along the Omani coast, often with their transponders turned off.

Earlier strikes have affected major operators such as South Korea’s Sinokor Group and Greece’s Dynacom, which have been instrumental in sustaining crude flows during much of the war with tankers sailing through Hormuz dark. In the week ended Jul 19, Hormuz crossings averaged seven tankers each day, compared with 16 per day a week earlier, said Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research for S&P Global Energy.

“Ship operators remain increasingly cautious, with risk tolerances continuing to be tested,” he said. An empty Sinokor supertanker, Plata Singapore, that was sailing towards the Gulf of Oman with the aim of reaching Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, deviated from its path on Sunday, according to ship tracking data.

The vessel is currently in the Arabian Sea. The South Korean company did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. The threat by Iran-backed Houthi militants to blockade Saudi Arabia’s maritime traffic has added another element of risk.

Shipowners with vessels seeking to transit the Red Sea were advised to review their affiliations with the kingdom, with at least one supertanker in nearby waters switching its broadcast to say that it belongs to the Indian government. The India-flagged supertanker, Desh Viraat, which is half-filled with crude from Fujairah, began sailing southwest earlier this week towards Bab el Mandeb in the Gulf of Aden, signalling it had armed guards onboard.

Soon after the Houthi threat on Monday, it switched that signal to “Govt. of India Await”, making clear that it has links to New Delhi. Desh Viraat’s owner, the Shipping Corporation of India, did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

“Companies maintaining regular Saudi trade should consider their exposure elevated, particularly for vessels calling at Red Sea ports,” maritime risk company Marisks said in a note to clients late on Monday that was seen by Bloomberg News. Even though it remains to be seen whether the Houthis will carry through with their threat, “for shipowners, risks have heightened”, said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage.

“If you have an alternate voyage to take, then you will take that and avoid those in the region.” BLOOMBERG Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox.

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranUN
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US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.

The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.

Location: Strait of Hormuz