Forum: Economic and political costs of war continue to mount

Summary

Forum: Economic and political costs of war continue to mount Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox The ongoing US-Iran conflict has laid bare a hard truth: Battlefield dominance does not mean strategic victory. Despite the success of Operation Epic Fury in crippling Iran’s conventional forces, Washington remains in a geopolitical stalemate, unable to compel the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy artery. By early April, US and Israeli strikes had degraded roughly 80 per cent of Iran’s air defences and neutralised its traditional surface fleet. Washington claimed total aerial dominance. Yet, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralysed. Iran’s leverage is not military, but geographical and asymmetric. Even a “defeated” Iran can maintain a blockade using drifting mines, fast-attack craft and selective shipping controls. These are cheap, low-tech and devastatingly effective. Clearing these waters is a painstaking manual process. By imposing a “tollbooth” scheme, reportedly charging upwards of US$2 million (S$2.55 million) per transit, Iran is attempting to rewrite international law. If a tollbooth scheme for the Strait of Hormuz is allowed, it could open the door to others in places such as the Malacca Strait. For a small nation like Singapore, the unravelling of the present international law regime, of which the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is part of, is an existential threat. Strategically, the US misread Hormuz as a side issue rather than Iran’s strongest card. Consequently, global energy markets, not military briefings, are now the ultimate judge of the conflict’s outcome. Singaporeans have been impacted by the war in terms of higher electricity tariffs, with warnings of sharper hikes to follow. Our national strategy must remain rooted in resilience: strengthening our energy ties with partners like Australia and ensuring our stockpiles can withstand a prolonged “no-flow” scenario in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is a cautionary tale for the 21st century. Firepower alone cannot secure the global commons. Leaders must weigh the limits of dominance before the first strike, because while the US may have won the battles of February and March, the economic and political costs of the closed strait continue to mount for the world’s trading nations. Geography, it seems, has trumped the fury. Keith Wong