Iran is increasingly relying on the Houthis in Yemen and allied militias in Iraq to pressure Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the Gulf, according to regional officials and experts. In July, Saudi Arabia and the US struck Iran-backed Iraqi militias after the groups were blamed for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities claimed by the Houthis.

Two Saudi officials and a senior Iraqi security official told Reuters that Houthi representatives had worked from an operations room run by Iraqi militias to plan and carry out the two-day drone attack. Officials from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces denied involvement.

The shift comes after several of Iran’s most important regional allies and partners suffered major losses in the wars that followed Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Israel severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, while US and Israeli strikes also targeted Iran and allied groups elsewhere in the region.

Regional officials and experts say Tehran has increasingly relied on the Houthis and Iraqi militias to pressure Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the Gulf. Geopolitics · Middle East Conflict Yemen on the Brink: Civil War & Global Oil Shipping How Houthi escalation and Red Sea shipping threats threaten regional stability and global energy markets.

40M+ Population 150K Past Casualties Buckling Ceasefire Yemen is moving closer to a return to civil war as a 2022 ceasefire with the internationally recognized government and Saudi-backed coalition buckles. Over 40 million residents fear a renewal of the conflict that previously brought widespread famine and humanitarian crisis.

Red Sea Port of Mokha Residents report that Houthi rebels have entered the key Red Sea port of Mokha, previously held by the government. This endangers a crucial entry point for food and humanitarian assistance in a country where many remain hungry and beyond the reach of aid.

Bab el-Mandeb Approach If the Houthis take Mokha, it marks a significant step toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait, creating further complications for vital Red Sea shipping lanes as global traffic diverts away from the targeted Strait of Hormuz. Testing Blockades Weeks ago, the Houthis tested a Saudi-led blockade of rebel-held areas.

In response, Saudi airstrikes hit the international airport in the rebel-held capital of Sanaa, following Houthi attacks on oil facilities and utilities in Saudi Arabia that wounded dozens. Targeting Saudi Oil Alternatives With the Iran war choking the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis are targeting Saudi efforts to ship oil via the Red Sea, aligning with Tehran's war aims to limit oil shipments from the Gulf and inflict economic pain on US-allied Saudi Arabia.

$1 Trillion Red Sea Goods >$100 Crude Oil / Bbl Expanding Houthi Control Analyst Ahmed Nagi notes that the Houthis now control a much larger stretch of the western coast, bringing them closer to Bab al-Mandeb and posing a flashing danger sign for global energy consumers already rattled by high crude prices.

The immediate threat is now concentrated on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Four Yemeni government military sources told Reuters on Thursday that the Houthis had seized Mocha, a historic port city about 80 km from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Associated Press reported that two residents said Houthi forces had entered and spread across the city, although it could not independently verify their accounts.

The Houthis have also advanced towards the strategic Hanish Islands, according to Yemeni government sources, while government forces and their allies are moving south towards Dhubab. The town sits directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opposite the island of Perim.

Story continues below this ad Control of Dhubab and Perim would give either side a crucial position from which to influence traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Key shipping route at risk Bab el-Mandeb links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a critical route for ships carrying oil, fuel and other goods between Asia, Europe and the Middle East via the Suez Canal.

Its importance has increased as the conflict with Iran has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Gulf oil exports. Saudi Arabia has been sending more oil through the Red Sea as an alternative to the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

But the alternative route is now also coming under pressure from the Houthis. Story continues below this ad The Houthis have attacked Saudi oil facilities and shipping in the Red Sea and declared a naval blockade against Saudi shipping. Yemen risks return to full-scale civil war The fighting also raises the risk of Yemen returning to full-scale civil war.

A UN-brokered truce in 2022 largely stopped years of major fighting between the Houthis and forces supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government. Recent clashes are now threatening that fragile calm. More than 20,000 people have been displaced by fighting in Taiz and Hodeida over the past two weeks, according to Yemeni government data cited by Reuters.

Hundreds of women and children also left Mocha on Thursday. Story continues below this ad Saudi Arabia says recent Houthi attacks on civilian and economic sites in its south have wounded 73 people, including women and children. The Houthis, meanwhile, said Saudi strikes hit several provinces in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia has not confirmed those strikes. Saudi warning sent to Iran Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources told Reuters that Pakistan conveyed a Saudi warning to Tehran asking it to rein in the Houthis. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran does not control the Houthis.

Two other Iranian sources, however, told the news agency that Tehran had instructed the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding and weapons. Story continues below this ad The Houthi advance towards Bab el-Mandeb therefore adds another danger to the regional conflict: Yemen risks sliding back into full-scale war while another major route for global oil and trade comes under growing pressure.

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President Trump stated that the U.S. will continue targeting Iranian tankers as the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz enters its seventh month, despite initial administration estimates predicting a much shorter timeline. While Trump publicly asserted that the war would end immediately after the upcoming election, a Wall Street Journal report indicates that senior advisors have privately warned him the conflict could extend through the remainder of his term.

Four Yemeni government military sources said the Houthis had gained further leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern outlet of the Red Sea and one of the world's most important shipping routes, and were launching attacks on the strategic islands of Hanish.

The Houthis entered the current war alongside Iran with an attack on Israel on March 28, but largely stayed quiet before declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in July and stepping up attacks on the south of the kingdom in September. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has relied on the Red Sea shipping route since the Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil used to flow.

Riyadh and Tehran, despite a China-brokered thawing of relations, have long been regional rivals and deeply distrust one another. Tensions in the region were high on Thursday, with Saudi civil defence authorities issuing emergency alerts in the southwestern city of Khamis Mushait for the fourth time in 24 hours, as the Houthis attacked.

Pakistan has delivered a Saudi warning to Iran to rein in its Yemeni Houthi allies in an effort to prevent the crisis from spiralling, Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources said. A senior Iranian official confirmed that Pakistan conveyed the message to Tehran on Tuesday and its response was that "Iran does not control the Houthis".

The escalating conflict in Yemen between Saudi Arabia's Yemeni allies in the internationally backed government and the Houthis, comes as Iran and the United States staged their biggest declared wave of tit-for-tat attacks on shipping in the Gulf region since the war began in February.

The U.S. President threatened again to attack a site associated with the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. Brent crude prices hovered above $100 a barrel as supply routes through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remained heavily disrupted.

AXIS OF RESISTANCESeen as part of a regional alliance known as the "Axis of Resistance" backed by Iran, the Houthis have also rallied behind the Palestinians in the Gaza war, lobbing drones and missiles at Israel and attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Yemeni government forces and their allies are relocating south along the Red Sea coast to Dhubab, which sits directly on the strait, across from the island of Perim, government military sources said. Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said.

Bab el-Mandeb, or the Gate of Tears, named for its perilous navigation conditions, lies between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast, making it a major prize for the Houthis, who control Yemen's most populous areas and much of the north.

It is one of the world's most important routes for crude oil and fuel from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal, or the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline on Egypt's Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.

TRUMP NAMES DEADLINE TO END WARThe war and subsequent increase in fuel prices have helped drive Trump's popularity to record lows. The president said Tehran was trying to influence the November U.S. mid-term elections, which will determine whether his Republican Party retains control of Congress.

"I think war is going to end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election," Trump told reporters on Wednesday. Trump has previously set deadlines for the war to end. The Wall Street Journal reported later that top White House advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have privately warned Trump that the conflict could extend through the remainder of his presidency, which ends in January 2029.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers, the latest in a series of tit-for-tat strikes that have signalled scant chance of an imminent end to hostilities.

Trump said in a speech at the mid-term Republican convention on Wednesday the U.S. may hit Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily fortified site that hosts two deeply buried tunnel complexes near Iran's damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility. The U.S.

and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in February partly due to concerns over Tehran's nuclear programme. Iran says its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes. In recent weeks Washington had cited increasing success guiding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of global oil supplies before the war.

But a resumption of fighting this month appears to have set back any such gradual reopening. Just seven vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, half the 10-day average, preliminary ship-tracking data showed on Thursday.

According to four Yemeni government military sources, Iran-aligned Houthi militants seized control of the port city of Mocha on Thursday, a move they state increases leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While unverified, the report suggests these actions pose a potential threat to Red Sea shipping routes, particularly amid heightened regional tensions and recent Saudi civil defense alerts.