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متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeApr 15, 2026

Iran-Israel ceasefire: Why America’s amateur diplomats are set up to fail

Summary

The first reason is that the US in the second term of Donald Trump relies not on professional diplomats and experts but on amateurs who may have the trust of the president but are otherwise out of their depth. The second is that Trump, as strategist-in-chief, keeps giving his negotiators objectives so implausible, confused or contradictory that even the wiliest diplomats in history — a Klemens von Metternich in the 19th century, say, or a Henry Kissinger in the 20th — would come up empty. In some cases, he even seems intent on setting up specific underlings to fail. That would explain why he suddenly put his vice president, JD Vance, in charge of the talks with Iran. Also Read| Trump says Iran talks may resume 'over the next two days' in Pakistan The amateurism is a problem all by itself, and is part of Trump’s full-bore assault against professionalism across government. From the start of his second term, those officials who would in a normal administration play leading roles in diplomacy have been relegated to bit parts, while the president’s friends and family members have taken the leads. Marco Rubio, who was not in Islamabad, is a notable example. He’s the secretary of state as well as the national security adviser (only Kissinger has ever combined both functions simultaneously). But while Rubio has displayed impressive talents of political survival and has the president’s ear on matters such as Venezuela and Cuba, he has been on the sidelines in dealing with the three big conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran. On those, the unofficial title of top diplomat instead belongs to “special envoy” Steve Witkoff. He’s a real-estate tycoon from New York who has been friends with Trump for decades (he was golfing with the president during the second assassination attempt) but had no experience or credentials in diplomacy before the second Trump administration. It shows. For example, Witkoff spent much of last year shuttling to Moscow to speak to his Russian contacts and President Vladimir Putin, while somehow neglecting ever to visit Kyiv. When in Russia, he generally sidestepped the US embassy and its experts, at times not even using American translators, and relied on the Kremlin’s interpretation instead. He became notorious for an interview with Tucker Carlson in which he regurgitated Putin’s talking points and propaganda almost word for word and didn’t seem to understand that Russia was the aggressor and Ukraine the victim. The president has paired Witkoff with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. He had helped broker the Abraham Accords in Trump’s first term but had been planning during the second to focus on his vast investment funds (with much of the money coming from the Middle East). Trump had different ideas, and Kushner and Witkoff have been hopscotching between negotiations on Ukraine, Gaza and Iran. Also Read| After unsuccessful US-Iran talks, what next for Trump? They were still engaged in talks with Tehran’s envoys last June, when Trump abruptly started bombing, and again in February, when he launched the war. At various points, Witkoff and Kushner didn’t seem to understand what the Iranian side was offering to them, because they lacked expertise on the arcana of nuclear physics and the like. They’ve been more successful in Gaza, where they secured a tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. But then they overhyped that baby step as the beginning of a renaissance for Gaza and the region, as though they were selling a glitzy real-estate project. Somehow, the Board of Peace that was supposed to manage the rebuilding of Gaza and point toward a long-term solution — albeit without including any Palestinians — has become distracted with other matters, not least the aggrandizement of Trump. Veterans of traditional diplomacy such as Aaron David Miller and Daniel Kurtzer give Witkoff and Kushner an F and consider the administration’s diplomatic process a “hot mess.” Only so much blame can be assigned to those tasked to execute strategy, however. The bigger question has to be whether that strategy is realistic and coherent. It is not, and that is the president’s fault. How could anybody, even a modern-day Metternich, negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, when the American commander-in-chief keeps applying more pressure on the invaded country and less, if any, on the invader? And what could even a Kissinger, say, do in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict when Trump keeps deferring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, instead of reining in Israeli settler violence in the West Bank and the like? In launching his “military operation” against Iran (ominously echoing Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine), Trump appears to have been unduly swayed by Netanyahu, while ignoring whatever timid objections his own advisers expressed. The most explicit objector was Vance, who has been consistently opposed to foreign adventurism, and to this Iran war in particular. If it turns into disaster (and it’s well on the way), Vance could look prescient. That doesn’t sit well with the boss. And so Witkoff and Kushner were dispatched to Islamabad as part of a delegation that was now led by the vice president. Holed up for 21 exhausting hours with their Iranian counterparts, the American amateur trio had to hold multiple opposed ideas in their minds at the same time while retaining the ability to function. They had to hew to Trump’s line that the US was already victorious, even as the Iranians clearly believe that they are now stronger than they had been before Feb. 28. They had to haggle about suspensions on Iran’s nuclear program — 20 years, or perhaps only five? — while avoiding any impression that they were negotiating anything resembling the Obama-era agreement that Trump derided and unilaterally quit in his first term. At a luncheon before the talks, Trump had made a joke to an audience that included Vance. He wants a deal, the president said, but “if it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance. If it does happen, I’m taking full credit.” Trump may be a masterful tactician in the game of me-first-politics. But he’s a woeful strategist in the immeasurably greater game of America First geopolitics. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Explore More Stories

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  • SECTIONS Iran-Israel ceasefire Why America’s amateur diplomats are set up; BloombergBy SECTIONS Iran-Israel ceasefire Why America’s amateur diplomats are set up; Bloomberg

    The first reason is that the US in the second term of Donald Trump relies not on professional diplomats and experts but on amateurs who may have the trust of the president but are otherwise out of their depth. The second is that Trump, as strategist-in-chief, keeps giving his neg

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Japan’s Defense Ministry said Friday that Iran used its geographical advantage to “inflict unbearable costs at a relatively low military expense,” effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz by indicating that it had laid naval mines, Kyodo News reported.

The ministry said Japan would strengthen its defense capabilities based on lessons from the US-Iran war, including by using defense equipment also operated by allies and like-minded partners to help ensure rapid supplies from other countries. It also stressed the need to maintain sufficient missile stockpiles and be prepared to quickly increase defense equipment production in an emergency, according to its first report analyzing the Iran war since February.

The US-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28, with attacks targeting military, nuclear and infrastructure sites across the country. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and US military facilities across the region. READ: EU joins US-led campaign to isolate Iran financially: Treasury chief Bessent Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 concerning freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but its implementation has stalled amid disagreements over security arrangements in the strait.

The Japanese report also said the country should take its own geographical characteristics into account when developing combat strategies, including the fact that it is surrounded by sea. The report noted the US use of AI to accelerate decision-making and operations, citing attacks on around 1,000 targets within 24 hours, while also highlighting the risk of AI making incorrect judgments.

“It is important to establish a process that maximizes the benefits of AI while ensuring appropriate human involvement,” the ministry said. The report comes ahead of a planned revision of Japan’s key security documents by the end of this year.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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A major offensive by Yemen's Houthis to seize control of the gateway to the Red Sea has left more than 120 people dead, sources told AFP Friday, the country's deadliest clashes in years. Fighting erupted on Thursday, after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a ground assault along with rocket and drone attacks near coastal areas, vying for control of the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait at the Red Sea's southern entrance.

Yemen, embroiled in more than a decade of civil conflict, in July became the latest country to be drawn into the Middle East war as the Houthis upended a 2022 truce with the Saudi-backed government. Since then, the Houthis have imposed a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and repeatedly attacked its ships in the Red Sea -- a vital alternative route for oil exports after Iran all but halted Gulf shipments by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

The rebels are now trying to tighten their hold over the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, which they have disrupted with attacks on passing vessels since the Gaza war broke out in 2023. The Houthi offensive aims to cut off the government-held port city of Mokha, under fire for weeks, and advance towards areas bordering the Bab al-Mandab, military sources told AFP.

The rebels have seized elevated sites overlooking government positions near the Red Sea and the city of Taiz further inland, a military source and a Taiz official told AFP, requesting anonymity. The Houthis could target ships from these elevated positions, they said.

The toll rose to 129 on Friday, according to an AFP tally compiled from several sources, up from an earlier count of 81. A Yemeni military official speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP that 66 of his men had been killed, while medical and military sources close to the Houthis said at least 62 militants had died.

Another medical source said a civilian had also been killed. Although the Houthis do not control areas bordering Bab al-Mandab, they hold the key port city of Hodeida north of Mokha. "They are going for Bab al-Mandab," said Mohammed al-Basha, of the US-based risk advisory Basha Report.

The Houthis want to control the hills overlooking Bab al-Mandab and Mokha before attacking the coast, a Yemeni official in Aden, the government's base since it was ousted from the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, in 2014. The government has sent reinforcements to Taiz from Aden on Saudi orders, he said.

"The Houthis feel that if they capture Bab al-Mandab or Mokha port they will be in a better position of power to negotiate with the government and the Saudis," Basha added. With Iran's closure of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint has gained increased importance as a transit route for oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of crude.

The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea -- and, via the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean -- to the Indian Ocean. In July, a fragile truce between the Houthis and the government fell apart after the rebels welcomed an Iranian plane to Sanaa, setting off a spate of attacks.

They later announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and began hitting its ships and territory.

Location: Tyre
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If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Israel started bombing Iran's nuclear facilities the next day, soon joined by the U.

S. Iran's uranium-enrichment plants were destroyed or badly damaged. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

FRESH DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

"(The board) requests the (IAEA) Director General to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions ... to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations," said the latest resolution draft seen by Reuters.

It also "reiterates its call upon Iran to urgently remedy its non-compliance with its Safeguards Agreement by taking all steps deemed necessary by the Agency and the Board, so that the Director General can provide the necessary assurances regarding the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations".

The draft has not yet been formally submitted to the board and negotiations over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. Whenever the four powers have submitted a draft resolution on Iran in recent years, it has passed. Concrete action by the Security Council against Iran is unlikely since Tehran's allies Russia and China are permanent, veto-wielding members.

IAEA CONCERNS OVER ENRICHMENT Iran has often retaliated following IAEA board resolutions against it by escalating its nuclear activities or scaling back cooperation with the IAEA, but its options for both are currently extremely limited. It is unclear what other repercussions there might be on Tehran's conflict with the U.

S. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes. Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb.

The IAEA has said the amount it has enriched to that level is of serious concern. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to that level before its sites were bombed. That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem