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متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeApr 7, 2026

Iran war raises risk of nuclear disaster in the Middle East

Summary

How close is the Middle East to a nuclear catastrophe? A war launched by the US and Israel with the stated aim of preventing a nuclear crisis could end up causing one. With repeated strikes reported near the Russian-built Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran, discussions about the US potentially forcibly taking Iranian uranium reserves, and seemingly zero room for compromise, the likelihood of radioactive fallout across the Middle East is steadily increasing. Strikes getting closer to Bushehr reactor Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, Tehran has reported four separate military strikes near its Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant on the Persian Gulf coast. The facility’s roughly-square territory spans some 500 meters across, with a single reactor unit located at its center. In the most recent incident on April 4, one of the projectiles landed just 75 metres from the site’s perimeter, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported, citing satellite imagery analysis. In mid-March, the UN nuclear watchdog reported that an attack had destroyed a structure around 350 metres from the reactor. Risking damage to Bushehr site ‘suicidal’ The plant was constructed by Russian specialists and still hosts a Russian team, although operator Rosatom has reduced staffing to a skeleton crew since hostilities began. The company stated that the March 17 strike marked the first time a weapon landed within the facility’s protected zone, hitting near a meteorological building. On the first day of the conflict, Rosatom chief Aleksey Likhachev warned that an operational nuclear power plant “is not a practice target,” stressing that military activity near such installations is “unacceptable and suicidal.” Russia’s Foreign Ministry also condemned the incidents near Bushehr, warning on April 6 that “the shadow of a radiological disaster more severe than Chernobyl now looms over the Persian Gulf” and surrounding areas. Worst case scenario for Bushehr Modern nuclear power plants are designed with multiple layers of protection to prevent the release of radioactive material. However, disasters such as Chernobyl in 1986 – caused by a catastrophic reactor failure during a botch experiment – and Fukushima in 2011 – triggered by a natural disaster – demonstrate that severe accidents remain possible and warrant abundance of caution. The recent incidents near Bushehr serve as “a stark reminder: a strike could trigger a nuclear accident, with health impacts that would devastate generations,” World Health Organization head Tedros Ghebreyesus cautioned, echoing calls from the IAEA for deescalation. I join the @iaeaorg in raising the alarm again over the safety of nuclear facilities in #Iran.The latest incident involving the Bushehr nuclear power plant is a stark reminder: a strike could trigger a nuclear accident, with health impacts that would devastate generations.… https://t.co/mvFRC23EpT— Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) April 5, 2026 A worst-case scenario involving a large-scale release of radioactive material from Bushehr could render not only parts of Iran but also neighboring states such as Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE uninhabitable, even without direct fallout, according to Peter Kuznick, director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University. “If Cesium-137 contaminates water supplies, it becomes extremely difficult to remove,” he explained to RT. Some regional countries get 100% of their drinking water from desalination systems that would likely be compromised, should Bushehr be seriously damaged. “This war is so reckless and out of control at this point that anything is possible,” he said. As in Ukraine, so in Iran Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has criticized what he described as a lack of Western condemnation over threats to Bushehr, compared to accusations of Russia related to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. The formerly Ukrainian facility, under Russian control since 2022, has faced repeated attacks or nearby incidents as Kiev continues to pursue its recapture. The IAEA maintains a monitoring mission at the site but does not assign blame for strikes, citing limitations of its mandate – a policy it also follows in Iran. Supporters of Kiev lay the blame squarely on Moscow. Threats beyond Bushehr The stated justification for the US-Israeli campaign is that Iran was allegedly close to acquiring nuclear weapons – despite the damage the two nations inflicted on its nuclear infrastructure last year. The administration of US President Donald Trump argues that Iran has no right to a civilian nuclear program, a position that conflicts with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Tehran has long denied any intention to develop nuclear weapons, citing religious prohibitions against weapons of mass destruction. However, the targeted assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening shot of the war may have shifted political calculations in Iran. Ahmad Naderi, an influential MP, has urged Iran to follow North Korea’s example, arguing that “if we were also armed with nuclear weapons, Trump would not dare to threaten bombing.” The NPT’s core deal is that a signatory gets IAEA help in building up the nuclear industry in exchange for oversight preventing weaponization. The US and Israel have ignored the international agency’s mandate to strike Iran’s Natanz enrichment site attacked on March 21. Meanwhile, attacks on industrial facilities have raised additional concerns. The Khuzestan Steel Production Factory, attacked in late March, uses radioactive isotopes for gauging, the IAEA warned, noting that no breach of sealed sources was detected. Hunt for the uranium stockpile The greatest contamination risk may stem from Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, believed to be stored in underground facilities in Isfahan and Natanz following the US-Israeli attacks last summer. The IAEA estimated in June 2025 that Iran possessed over 440 kg of uranium hexafluoride enriched to 60%, while some assessments suggest the stockpile could be larger by as much as 100kg. There has been speculation that a large-scale US military operation – officially described as a rescue mission for aircrew of an F-15E jet downed in Iran on April 3 – may have been linked to efforts to locate and secure the uranium. The mission involved around 150 aircraft, including transport planes that were stuck on the ground and destroyed to avoid capture, according to American officials. Emerging evidence suggests that U.S. operations south of Isfahan (marked in red on the map) were unrelated to any pilot rescue mission. The downed American pilot was reportedly located in southwest Iran, near Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province (marked in blue on the map), not… https://t.co/xcyFel3Plgpic.twitter.com/5pZezRrNYb— Arash Reisinezhad (@arashreisi) April 5, 2026 The other nation with nuclear sites Israel, widely believed to possess a nuclear arsenal, faces similar vulnerabilities. Following the attack on Natanz on March 21, Iran retaliated with strikes near Dimona and Arad, two towns close to the heavily fortified Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center. “Our air defense system is among the best in the world, but it is not hermetic,” a senior Israeli air defense commander commented. “There are errors and malfunctions.” The implied threat to the facility was later reinforced in an Iranian AI propaganda video depicting the country’s new leader considering a direct attack on the Iranian nuclear reactor. First appearance of the new Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei in an AI-generated video. The main message: the Nuclear Research Center in Dimona. pic.twitter.com/sXXtAwk6Uc— Baxtiyar Goran ☀️ (@BaxtiyarGoran) April 5, 2026 Running up the escalation ladder Although already highly destructive, the conflict still has significant room for escalation, including the potential use of nuclear weapons. The US used the option in 1945 against Japan, a nation that refused to admit defeat at a moment when a Soviet ground attack was becoming increasingly possible. Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) made the use of nukes a taboo during the Cold War. Israeli officials and pro-war aid reportedly swayed Trump aides with a promise that his political legacy would be secured if he were to do what no president had done before him and launch a regime-change war against Tehran. “Trump has broken every custom, every norm, every tradition, every international law, most US laws,” Kuznick noted “The same psychology applies to the nuclear taboo.” Likewise, Israel came close to using nuclear weapons during the 1973 Yom Kippur War but ultimately then-Prime Minister Golda Meir refrained after battlefield conditions shifted against Egyptian and Syrian forces. What decisions Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu might take, should the latter’s 40-year dream of crushing Iran slip away, is becoming an increasingly concerning question. Netenyhu - ""Teaming up with US allows Israel to do what I’ve been wishing to do for 40 years"' pic.twitter.com/8t3HXsg0ZZ— Ounka (@OunkaOnX) March 1, 2026

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

Location: Iran