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متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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diplomacyAug 26, 2026

Iranian crude exports, war, sanctions and signs of a fragile recovery

Summary

Iran's crude exports have traced one of the more dramatic arcs in oil markets. This week's chart maps that journey from the promise of the 2015 nuclear deal to the collapse that followed and the tentative signs of recovery now emerging in the latest data from June 2026.

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diplomacyUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

Iran and Oman reach Hormuz deal, but reopening hinges on US compliance The Revolutionary Guards said the waterway ‘will not be opened under any circumstances’ if Washington failed to accept the demands Iran and Oman have reached agreement on their share of the Strait of Hormuz and its revenues, but the vital waterway will not be reopened if the US does not accept their conditions, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday.

Iran and Oman have held on-and-off talks for weeks about controlling traffic through the strait, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war began in February. Most shipping has since been shut down, driving global energy prices higher, as Tehran and Washington have tried to assert control over the channel, imposing separate blockades.

“The Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and the country of Oman … We have been in negotiations with Oman for about a month, and we have reached results that are acceptable to both sides,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said in comments published by Iranian state media.

“In these negotiations, agreements have been reached regarding the share of each country in the waters of the strait and the share of Iran and Oman in its revenues,” Mohebbi added. The IRGC accused the US of seeking to obstruct the negotiations between Iran and Oman and said this had caused the agreement to be delayed.

“If the United States stops obstructing and returns to the agreement, we can open the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the agreement reached … If the United States does not accept our conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened under any circumstances,” Mohebbi said.

Location: Iran
diplomacyUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

Ships anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on August 10, 2026. /VCG Ships anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on August 10, 2026. /VCG Editor's note: Professor Wang Jin is a Middle East expert and CGTN Commentator.

The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN. The impact of the new round of US sanctions on Iran has long extended beyond the bilateral relationship between the United States and Iran. The sanctions will not only deepen Iran's economic and livelihood difficulties, but will also transmit their effects across the region and the wider world through energy, trade, finance and supply chains.

As the costs of sanctions continue to spill over, the United States is seeking to achieve its strategic objectives through economic pressure, but it may ultimately shift the risks and costs onto its allies and developing countries, creating a situation in which "the United States exerts the pressure while the world bears the cost.

" The US sanctions against Iran, as well as the threatened new round of sanctions, will further aggravate Iran's economic difficulties and place additional pressure on people's livelihoods. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February, Iran's domestic economy has continued to deteriorate.

Recently, the Iranian rial fell below the level of 2 million rials per US dollar, while prices inside Iran have risen rapidly and the cost of living for ordinary people has increased. Against this backdrop, a new round of US pressure on Iran will further exacerbate the country's economic difficulties and the hardships faced by its population.

Fresh US sanctions on Iran will further spread anxiety across international energy markets. As the intensity of the US-Iran conflict has gradually declined, there have been widespread expectations that the two sides could resume dialogue, and the United States had even hoped to gradually lift its blockade and sanctions against Iran.

However, instead of reducing its military pressure on Iran, Washington has further increased economic pressure, expanding and strengthening the scope, areas and instruments of sanctions. This has raised concerns within the international community that the US-Iran conflict could erupt again.

Against this backdrop, heightened fears will continue to push up international crude oil prices, while anxiety in international energy markets will further contribute to keeping energy prices at elevated levels. US financial sanctions against Iran, particularly the demand that other countries choose sides, will further increase production costs in international energy markets.

Although the United States has maintained an economic blockade against Iran for a long time, countries in the region have continued to preserve economic ties with Iran through various channels, maintaining close relations with the country in finance, transportation, manufacturing, chemicals, energy, infrastructure and other sectors.

As the United States increases pressure on Iran, particularly by demanding that other countries choose sides, regional countries will be forced to readjust their economic relations with Iran. Under US pressure, they may have to reduce or restructure their economic ties with Iran.

Given the war and the negative impact that the US-Iran conflict has had on regional economies since late February, countries in the region, particularly the Gulf states, will inevitably incur new economic costs as they adjust their relations with Iran.

This will further affect fluctuations in international economic and energy markets. More importantly, the new US sanctions have consequences for the United States itself. The expansion of sanctions against Iran will keep international energy prices elevated for an extended period.

As an important component of the international energy system, the petrochemical industry will see its prices remain high, further driving up production costs in other sectors. This will be particularly significant for agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, which are closely linked to the petrochemical industry.

Persistently high fertilizer prices will in turn increase agricultural production costs and push up global food prices. For the United States itself, the prolonged instability in the Middle East and the continued escalation of sanctions against Iran will inevitably increase agricultural production costs, driving up domestic agricultural prices and further fueling inflation.

This will increase the cost of living for Americans and contribute to growing public dissatisfaction, ultimately producing adverse effects on the US economy and domestic political situation. For the United States, however, the greatest damage caused by the new round of economic sanctions against Iran and their broader economic consequences will ultimately be borne by developing countries.

The United States can shift the costs of rising prices onto its regional allies, particularly by requiring the Gulf Arab states to shoulder the enormous costs associated with US economic reconstruction, military reconstruction and sanctions against Iran.

As price increases and inflationary pressures within the United States intensify, the costs will ultimately be redistributed through the US-dominated financial and economic systems, forcing developing countries to bear the consequences of economic pressures generated by Washington.

The United States does not need to directly "pay" for sanctions against Iran, while costs generated by economic sanctions will ultimately be borne by the whole world.

Location: Iran
diplomacyUnverifiedIran
1 source

The resumption of hostilities follows recent shifts in U.S. sanctions policy toward Iran, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding (MoU) and OFAC's issuance of General License X (GL X), which temporarily authorized certain transactions involving Iranian-origin oil and petroleum products.

On July 7, 2026, OFAC revoked those authorizations through General License X1 (GL X1) and ...

Location: Tehran