Oil prices rose today, extending a multi-day rally, on media reports the US will extend its blockade of Iranian ports, likely prolonging supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region. US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported last night, citing US officials. Trump will opt to continue to squeeze Iran's economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports, the report said. Brent crude futures for June rose $1.11, or 1%, to $112.37 a barrel early this morning, climbing for an eighth day. The June contract expires tomorrow and the more active July contract was at $105.32, up 0.88%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June rose 51 cents, or 0.51%, to $100.44 a barrel after gaining 3.7% in the previous session, climbing for seven out of the last eight days. "The recent rise in oil prices has been driven by the Strait blockade. If Trump is prepared to extend the blockade, supply disruptions would worsen further and continue to push oil prices higher," said Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures. Investors were also assessing the ramifications of the United Arab Emirates' surprise decision to quit OPEC. Analysts did not expect any major near-term impact on the market by the move. There must be a resolution in the Persian Gulf that allows for uninhibited energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz once again before UAE's output increase to realise, ING analysts wrote in a note today. They said in the medium to longer term the UAE's decision means more supply for the market, which suggests that the Brent forward curve should move into deeper backwardation. Despite a ceasefire in the US-Israeli war with Iran, the conflict is deadlocked as both sides seek a formal end to the fighting. Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, and the US blockaded Iranian ports. The US is pressing Iran to end what it says is a nuclear weapons programme, while Iran wants some form of reparations for the latest round of fighting, an easing of economic sanctions and some form of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Hormuz shutdown is prompting pulls from global inventories, with market sources saying last night that the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude oil inventories fell for a second week. Crude stocks fell by 1.79 million barrels in the week ended April 24, the sources said. Gasoline inventories fell by 8.47 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.60 million barrels.
Oil prices rose today, extending a multi-day rally, on media reports the US will extend its blockade of Iranian ports, likely prolonging supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region. US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockad…
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International mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, according to a senior Iranian official cited in reports. The measure is described as intended to reduce hostilities and allow renewed talks on a prior interim agreement.
Both sides are assessing next steps in the current regional security situation.
Reports indicate that a US-Iran ceasefire has broken down amid renewed fighting, with the potential impact of mediation efforts by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman remaining unclear. Earlier diplomatic steps included a June memorandum of understanding between the parties for further negotiations and talks hosted in Geneva in February.
The summary also references Europe’s historical role in diplomacy, including the 1814-15 Congress of Vienna.
Donald Trump stated in a Fox News interview that his representatives had spoken with Iranian officials an hour earlier and that those officials wanted to make a deal to end the conflict, though he noted they had broken prior agreements and expressed uncertainty about whether one would be reached.
He added that people do not want to die and that Iran would need to proceed carefully to avoid further losses. The remarks come amid an ongoing US-Iran conflict that has involved casualties and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with some social media users criticizing the repetition of similar statements.
Why the Iran-US ceasefire is falling apart Iran and the US have resumed fighting because they don’t see each other as ‘reliable negotiating partners’, says analyst Ali Vaez. Neither Iran nor the United States seems able to deliver a “knockout blow at an acceptable price” to the other side, and both know “they have no choice other than engaging in diplomacy”, but they’re not ready to make uncomfortable concessions, argues Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at International Crisis Group.
Vaez tells host Steve Clemons that Tehran and Washington are trying to “enforce their own interpretation” of the ceasefire agreement they signed last month. President Trump has become “frustrated” with diplomacy because he’s not seeing “the kind of quick results that he likes to see”, Vaez says.