متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeJun 17, 2026

Oil little changed as investors weigh Hormuz uncertainty

Summary

Oil prices fell slightly today as investors gauged the impact of a US-Iran peace deal, while uncertainty over full resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz limited price declines. Both benchmarks were down about 0.2% early this morning, with Brent crude futures dipping 15 cents to $78.81 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate falling 12 cents to $75.93 a barrel. Both had fallen about 5% yesterday for a second session in a row to hit three-month lows, fuelled by hopes that a US-Iran deal would allow oil flows through the Strait. "Markets are broadly stripping out the embedded geopolitical risk premium in oil prices," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "That said, the path toward normalisation remains far from straightforward. While political agreements may be progressing, physical tanker traffic through the Strait has yet to fully recover," the analyst added. The deal would provide for the US to lift its blockade of Iran's ports, while Tehran would allow oil tanker traffic through the Strait, effectively blocked since US and Israel strikes on February 28. "Oil markets retreated on expectations the Strait of Hormuz would reopen following the peace agreement, but traders held off further selling pending details," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment. WTI is likely to stay volatile in a range of $10 above or below $80 a barrel, he added. Before the closure, about a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed through the Strait. Details of the interim peace deal began to emerge yesterday, with President Donald Trump saying it would rule out a nuclear weapon for Tehran and a US official saying it would allow Iran to sell oil upon signing. The memorandum of understanding, not yet public, extends by another 60 days a tenuous ceasefire agreed in April, so as to allow room for talks toward a permanent truce. Still, industry officials say a full return to pre-war production and refining levels is likely to take weeks, months or even years. Israel has distanced itself from both the April ceasefire and the latest US-Iran pact, fuelling uncertainty about whether it will hold. Israeli drone strikes targeted three vehicles in southern Lebanon yesterday, killing at least four and wounding others, Lebanon's National News Agency said, prompting a rare public rebuke from Trump. China's crude oil throughput fell 9.1% in May on the year to its lowest in almost four years, data showed, also signalling that refiners were starting to draw on stockpiles amid the Iran war. The American Petroleum Institute report showed US crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels in the week ended June 12, the sources said. It exceeded expectations for a draw of 4.6 million barrels, with official numbers due from the Energy Information Administration later today.

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    Oil prices fell slightly today as investors gauged the impact of a US-Iran peace deal, while uncertainty over full resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz limited price declines. Both benchmarks were down about 0.2% early this morning, with Brent crude futures dipping

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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

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It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

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A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.

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Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

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