متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeJul 21, 2026

Oil prices to hit $120 soon? Goldman Sachs makes big prediction as Hormuz concerns loom

Summary

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming tensions in the Middle East ease. However, the risks to its forecasts remain "tilted to the upside" due to potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and possibly the Red Sea, analysts said. Global energy markets have faced renewed volatility this month, with Brent climbing back above $91 per barrel amid fresh fighting between the U.S. and Iran and a threat by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to blockade shipments from Saudi Arabia. Red Sea routes have played a key role in enabling Persian Gulf crude cargoes affected by disruptions to reach buyers. Also read: Relieved that crude has finally fallen? The real warning signs just began flashing elsewhere Goldman Sachs said lower global inventories in the second quarter have increased the oil market's vulnerability to supply shocks. However, weaker Chinese imports and greater demand elasticity could limit the potential for further price gains. Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as markets weighed reports of renewed diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran, including a proposed 10-day ceasefire, against continued military exchanges and a threat by Yemen's Houthis to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. Crude oil price today A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had received a 10-day ceasefire proposal from mediators. The initiative aims to preserve the interim agreement signed on June 17 and create a path toward a lasting deal to end the conflict that began on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. The diplomatic push followed another night of U.S. strikes on Iranian cities and retaliatory attacks by Iran's Revolutionary Guards on U.S. military assets across the region. U.S. Central Command later said on Monday that it had launched another round of strikes on Iran. The U.S. carried out its 10th consecutive day of strikes after President Donald Trump vowed that Iran "will pay" for the killing of American soldiers. Iran responded with attacks on Kuwait. The conflict began on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. Tehran retaliated with strikes on Israel and Gulf states that host U.S. military bases. U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, along with Israeli strikes on Lebanon during the conflict, have killed thousands of people and displaced millions. Also read:Oil is crude once again! Is $95 the new normal and what it means for Indian investors? Over the past week, Trump has also threatened to widen the scope of U.S. strikes in Iran to include energy facilities and bridges. The 1949 Geneva Conventions, which set rules for humanitarian conduct during war, prohibit attacks on sites considered essential to civilian life. Following Trump's earlier threats to target such infrastructure, international law experts in the U.S. said earlier this year that such attacks could potentially constitute war crimes. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price

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  • Veer SharmaBy Veer Sharma

    Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming tensions in the Middle East ease. However, the risks to its forecasts remain "tilted to the upside" due to potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz

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strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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Iran-backed Houthis threaten Red Sea blockade against Saudi Arabia The war in Iran could soon expand to the Red Sea after Iranian-supported Houthi forces announced that they would block shipping from Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally. The Houthis, a political-religious faction in Yemen, announced the blockade July 20.

The group controls a narrow waterway known as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. It’s connected to the southern part of the Red Sea and has been used as an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and natural gas.

The Iran war has limited ship travel through the strait. Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could trigger a fresh surge in crude prices, disrupt fuel supplies and add strain on the global economy, Reuters reported. Here's the critical shipping route Can't see our graphics?

Click here to reload the page. Iran had been pressing the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States continued to attack Iranian power infrastructure, a move that would put two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk, according to Reuters.

A full closure of Bab el-Mandeb could reduce global oil supply by 7% because it would leave most Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region, adding to the 10% cut in oil flows from the war in the Gulf. Ship traffic slows in Bab el-Mandeb Strait The United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17.

That included 60 days for negotiations on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and on Iranian nuclear and missile systems. The ceasefire ended July 8 when President Donald Trump said it was over after fighting renewed. Iran has retained control of the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated U.

S. strikes. Chokepoints in the world's global oil supply Because of the massive amounts of petroleum, other liquids and liquified natural gas that flow through them, chokepoints – narrow passages along popular international maritime routes – are vital to the world's energy trade and security.

The simultaneous disruption of several transportation routes, including energy, shipping and air cargo, is expected to increase global inflation and put key world economies at risk of stagflation. That's on top of existing political and tariff disputes, according to Oilprice.

com. The Houthis said the blockade against Saudi Arabia was in retaliation for what they called the country’s long-running blockade or “siege” of Yemen’s airports and ports. The latest incident came July 13, when Yemeni government forces attacked Sanaa airport in Yemen to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a delegation of Houthis from landing.

17 US military deaths reported in Iran war The confirmed U.S. military death toll in the war with Iran rose to 17 after two American soldiers were killed in Jordan, the Pentagon announced July 19. The service members were identified as 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Pvt.

Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas. Their deaths are the latest in a conflict that has claimed American lives across the Middle East since March. Trump has said the U.S. military campaign has left Iran "very badly damaged" with "very little left" militarily.

Contributing: Fernando Cervantes Jr.

strikeUnverifiedIranProxy
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Houthi forces have announced a blockade on Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, describing it as retaliation for a Saudi-imposed blockade on Yemen and an airstrike on Sanaa's airport. The strait accounts for roughly 12 percent of global maritime trade.

Reports indicate Saudi Arabia has rerouted some oil exports via the Red Sea amid separate tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

Israeli officials assessed that the United States may expand strikes on Iranian infrastructure and officials, potentially prompting Iranian retaliation against Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a six-hour security consultation on Monday night, during which he spoke briefly with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

US Central Command has conducted strikes on roughly 1,000 targets in Iran over 10 days, and President Trump stated that US forces would target the Pickaxe Mountain area near Natanz.

Location: Jerusalem
strikeUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

President Donald Trump stated at the White House that U.S. operations against Iran would continue and could target sites linked to its nuclear program, including Pickaxe Mountain, while asserting that Iran seeks a ceasefire but that fighting is ongoing.

Pope Leo XIV called for an end to the conflict, urging rejection of violence and noting harm to civilians. Claims of specific damage levels and impending strikes remain attributed to the president's remarks.

Location: Iran