strikeMay 12, 2026

OPINION | The Iran conflict shifts to a high-stakes battle for control over Hormuz

Summary

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central battleground of the Iran conflict. The passage of a handful of oil and gas tankers in recent days, apparently with Tehran’s consent, hints at tacit acceptance of its control. This foreshadows a more dangerous phase in what is fast turning into a Hormuz war. Tehran’s near-complete closure of the vital trade artery since the joint Israeli-US airstrikes on February 28 and the reciprocal US naval blockade imposed last month have sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Countries, particularly in Asia, have struggled with the sudden loss of more than 13 per cent of global oil supply and roughly a fifth of liquefied natural gas flows. Thus, many welcomed the news that three very large crude carriers (VLCC), each hauling around two million barrels of Iraqi oil headed for Asia, slipped through last week with their tracking systems switched off, according to Kpler shipping data, with some indications the transits were coordinated with Tehran. Qatar also shipped its first two LNG cargoes since the war began. The LNG is being sold to Pakistan - the primary mediator in US-Iran negotiations - under a government-to-government deal, according to sources familiar with the matter. They said Iran had approved the shipment to help build confidence with Qatar and Pakistan. There are also signs that other vessels, including oil tankers, have transited the strait in recent weeks with their transponders switched off. It remains unclear whether those passages were sanctioned by Iran or whether shipowners paid informal tolls to secure safe passage. Several, however, appeared to have travelled along shipping lanes close to Iran's coastline. While this trickle of cargoes offers badly needed relief to import-dependent economies, it is not a signal that the global energy system is returning to normal – quite the opposite. The movements represent a mere fraction of the roughly 140 vessels that crossed Hormuz daily before the conflict, meaning global markets remain tight and vulnerable. More importantly, they point to an emerging new order. Iran is beginning to dictate not whether Hormuz is open or closed, but who gets to use it - an arrangement that could outlast the current conflict and sow the seeds of the next. Persian Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq - whose economies depend on the unhindered flow of hydrocarbons - will be alarmed by any system in which Tehran determines which cargoes reach global markets and on what terms. Buyers will be equally uneasy. Asian importers, already reeling from supply disruptions, will likely resist any framework that gives Tehran a direct lever over their energy security and economic stability. Above all, the US is unlikely to tolerate a settlement that cedes Tehran such sweeping political and economic leverage. President Donald Trump has insisted that transit return to its pre-war status as a condition for any permanent ceasefire. Allowing Iran to manage access to the strait would undermine Washington’s stated war aims and make any claim of victory hollow. Iran, for its part, will not be eager to relinquish its control over the chokepoint – and, by extension, the global economy. It is by far Tehran's most powerful weapon. With the US blockade having reportedly cost Iran roughly $3 billion so far, it will also need the revenue that selective transit fees can generate. The logic points to a bleak conclusion. If this selective, Iran-mediated transit pattern becomes entrenched, it risks hardening into a new normal that may persist even if a ceasefire is hammered out. Tehran may agree to reopen the strait to secure US concessions, but restoring full, unconditional freedom of navigation looks unlikely. Such a stasis would be inherently unstable - institutionalising disruption rather than resolving it. Renewed confrontation between Tehran and Washington - and potentially with gulf states - would become increasingly likely, as all sides tested the limits of who controls the flow of energy through the strait. US war aims have shifted repeatedly in recent months. Yet the conflict has essentially coalesced around a single defining question: who controls the Strait of Hormuz? That answer will likely shape the future of the gulf. (Reporting by Ron Bousso; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Perspectives

Iranian Official

The Islamic Republic of Iran has asserted its sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz in legitimate defense against foreign aggression, closing the vital artery following the joint Israeli-US airstrikes of February 28 and the unlawful US naval blockade. This act of resistance has exposed the vulnerability of global energy supplies to such provocations. Selective transits by certain tankers, approved by Tehran, reflect Iran's measured exercise of authority rather than any concession to external pressure.

Israeli

Iran's near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz after joint Israeli-US defensive strikes on February 28 exposes Tehran's strategy of leveraging proxy networks and maritime control to choke global energy supplies, directly threatening Israel's survival amid existential Iranian aggression. Selective tanker transits coordinated with Tehran, including Iraqi oil and Qatari LNG routed via Pakistan, reveal manipulative tactics to sustain pressure while evading accountability. These developments underscore the necessity of sustained Israeli actions to neutralize Iran's expanding threats.

Neutral

Reports indicate that tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz have included three VLCCs carrying Iraqi crude to Asia last week, with tracking systems disabled according to Kpler data, as well as initial Qatari LNG shipments to Pakistan under a government-to-government arrangement. Iranian approval for these movements has been cited by unnamed sources as a confidence-building measure, though such coordination remains unverified. These transits occurred amid restrictions on the strait following Israeli-US airstrikes on February 28 and a subsequent US naval blockade, which have reduced global oil and LNG flows.

Western

The Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of efforts to neutralize Iranian threats to global energy transit following joint US-Israeli precision strikes on February 28 and the subsequent naval blockade. Limited transits by VLCCs carrying Iraqi crude and Qatari LNG shipments to Pakistan, executed with disabled transponders, reflect Tehran’s constrained concessions under sustained pressure to reopen the vital artery. These operations prioritize strategic objectives of securing maritime access and mitigating the disruption of over 13% of global oil and 20% of LNG supplies.

Pro-Peace

The US-Israeli airstrikes and subsequent naval blockade have triggered a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, slashing global oil and LNG supplies and inflicting severe energy shortages on civilians across Asia, where households and essential services face rising costs and potential blackouts. These military moves risk further escalation and humanitarian fallout, even as limited tanker transits and Qatar’s LNG shipments to Pakistan—facilitated with Iranian approval—signal tentative confidence-building. Such steps underscore the urgent need for sustained diplomatic mediation by Pakistan and others to avert wider suffering and restore safe passage without violence.

Global South

Iran’s sovereign assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, in response to joint Israeli-US airstrikes and a subsequent American naval blockade, exposes the neo-colonial pattern of Western powers weaponizing energy routes against the Global South. The resulting cutoff of over 13% of global oil and a fifth of LNG flows has inflicted acute hardship on Asian economies, while selective tanker transits—including Iraqi crude to Asia and Qatari LNG routed via Pakistan—reveal how Tehran navigates these pressures through bilateral understandings rather than deference to ineffective multilateral institutions. Such dynamics underscore the failure of global governance to shield developing nations from externally imposed supply shocks.

Actors involved

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Sources

ReutersBy Reuters
The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central battleground of the Iran conflict. The passage of a handful of oil and gas tankers in recent days, apparently with Tehran’s consent, hints at tacit acceptance of its control. This foreshadows a more dangerous phase in what is fast t…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks

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Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks A tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations says on Tuesday - Hormuz was deserted on Jul 21, with no ships observed transiting, data shows.

PHOTO: REUTERS [SINGAPORE] Another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as renewed hostilities empty the waterway, while a threat by Houthi rebels to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea heightened regional maritime risks. The Kaifan, an oil products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker, was the vessel attacked in the strait, according to security consultancy EOS Risk Group.

The ship was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations said earlier on Tuesday (Jul 21), without naming the tanker. Kuwait Oil Tanker did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment, and ship tracking data shows Kaifan last signalled its location more than a month ago near Sohar, Oman.

The attack on the Kuwaiti tanker follows strikes in recent days on vessels owned by Dynacom Tankers Management. Hormuz was deserted on Tuesday, with no ships observed transiting, data shows. Iran’s recent spate of attacks has focused on oil tankers shuttling through the strait along the Omani coast, often with their transponders turned off.

Earlier strikes have affected major operators such as South Korea’s Sinokor Group and Greece’s Dynacom, which have been instrumental in sustaining crude flows during much of the war with tankers sailing through Hormuz dark. In the week ended Jul 19, Hormuz crossings averaged seven tankers each day, compared with 16 per day a week earlier, said Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research for S&P Global Energy.

“Ship operators remain increasingly cautious, with risk tolerances continuing to be tested,” he said. An empty Sinokor supertanker, Plata Singapore, that was sailing towards the Gulf of Oman with the aim of reaching Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, deviated from its path on Sunday, according to ship tracking data.

The vessel is currently in the Arabian Sea. The South Korean company did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. The threat by Iran-backed Houthi militants to blockade Saudi Arabia’s maritime traffic has added another element of risk.

Shipowners with vessels seeking to transit the Red Sea were advised to review their affiliations with the kingdom, with at least one supertanker in nearby waters switching its broadcast to say that it belongs to the Indian government. The India-flagged supertanker, Desh Viraat, which is half-filled with crude from Fujairah, began sailing southwest earlier this week towards Bab el Mandeb in the Gulf of Aden, signalling it had armed guards onboard.

Soon after the Houthi threat on Monday, it switched that signal to “Govt. of India Await”, making clear that it has links to New Delhi. Desh Viraat’s owner, the Shipping Corporation of India, did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

“Companies maintaining regular Saudi trade should consider their exposure elevated, particularly for vessels calling at Red Sea ports,” maritime risk company Marisks said in a note to clients late on Monday that was seen by Bloomberg News. Even though it remains to be seen whether the Houthis will carry through with their threat, “for shipowners, risks have heightened”, said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage.

“If you have an alternate voyage to take, then you will take that and avoid those in the region.” BLOOMBERG Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox.

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Oil prices to hit $120 soon? Goldman Sachs makes big prediction as Hormuz concerns loom

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Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

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Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

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