متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeMay 18, 2026

Pakistan’s mediation faces limits as Iran-US tensions deepen

Summary

Pakistan’s mediation faces limits as Iran-US tensions deepen Tehran and Washington exchange proposals through Pakistan while military escalation increasingly shadows diplomatic efforts. Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan is scrambling to keep channels of diplomacy open between the United States and Iran, amid escalating rhetoric from both sides, and growing signals from Washington that it is prepared to restart attacks that have been on pause since an April 8 ceasefire in the US-Israel war on Iran. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran on Saturday for a two-day visit, meeting President Masoud Pezeshkian, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as Islamabad scrambled to prevent ceasefire negotiations from collapsing altogether. Ghalibaf has also been Iran’s chief negotiator in peace talks with the US to end the war, which began on February 28. Recommended Storieslist of 4 items - list 1 of 4Could a leadership change undo Israel’s international isolation? - list 2 of 4Drone strike sparks fire on perimeter of UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant - list 3 of 4‘Won’t be anything left’: Trump issues threat to Iran amid stalled talks - list 4 of 4Al Jazeera reports from Hormuz Island as Iran says it controls the strait Yet on Sunday, as Naqvi continued talks with Iranian officials, US President Donald Trump issued a warning on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” Over the weekend, Trump also met his top national security team, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and special envoy Steve Witkoff. Tehran’s version of events, however, has sharply differed from Washington’s public posture. At his weekly press conference on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that despite Trump publicly calling Iran’s response “totally unacceptable” last week, Washington had sent “a set of revised points and considerations” through Pakistani mediators. Iran had reviewed them and responded through the same channel. “The process is continuing through Pakistan,” Baghaei said. Later, Iran’s state-run Tasnim news agency said that Iran’s submission to Pakistan — to be transmitted to the US — included a 14-point proposal. Yet tensions have continued to mount. Over the weekend, drones struck an electrical generator outside the perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia separately said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraqi airspace. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry on Monday condemned the Barakah strike as “a grave violation of international law” and urged all parties to “exercise maximum restraint”. The developments underscored how far diplomacy has deteriorated since the ceasefire came into effect 40 days ago. Both sides have exchanged proposals, rejected each other’s core demands, and increasingly shifted to the language of military escalation, with renewed hostilities now a real possibility, according to analysts. The proposal breakdown Following the April 8 ceasefire and the collapse of talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, Washington and Tehran continued exchanging proposals through Pakistani intermediaries. On April 28, Iran submitted a 14-point counterproposal calling for a permanent end to hostilities within 30 days, a US withdrawal from areas near its borders, the lifting of a US naval blockade, the release of frozen assets, war reparations, and a new mechanism governing the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear issues were explicitly excluded. Washington responded early May with its own plan. Its central demands included a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, the transfer abroad of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, estimated at roughly 400kg (882 pounds) enriched to 60 percent, and the dismantling of nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. Confirming receipt of the US proposal at the time, Baghaei stressed that Iran’s own plan focused solely on ending the conflict. “The plan we have presented is centred on ending the war. There are absolutely no details regarding the country’s nuclear issues in this proposal,” he said. Tehran took 10 days to respond. Iran’s written response offered to transfer some enriched uranium to a third country while postponing nuclear negotiations until after a permanent ceasefire. But Trump dismissed it as “totally unacceptable”. Baghaei reiterated Tehran’s position on Monday. “This is absolutely not a topic we negotiate or compromise on. Iran’s right to enrichment has been recognised under the NPT,” he said, referring to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel, the other aggressor in the war along with the US, has not signed. Iran also laid out five preconditions for any renewed talks: an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon; sanctions relief; the release of frozen assets; war compensation; and recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Javad Heiran-Nia, an international relations analyst based in Tehran, told Al Jazeera the dispute over sequencing was fundamental rather than tactical. Iran wanted the Hormuz issue resolved first to prevent Washington from using the naval blockade as leverage during future nuclear negotiations, he said. “The US wants nuclear talks from the very beginning so that it can maintain the naval blockade during negotiations and keep it as an effective card,” he said. “This is a deep structural gap: Iran is seeking a long-term insurance policy following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, while Washington wants to use military and sanctions pressure to obtain maximum concessions,” the analyst added, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear deal that global powers had reached with Iran, before Trump walked out of it. Ilhan Niaz, professor of history at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, said both sides had strategic reasons to remain entrenched. “Iran is now stronger because of the war than it could have ever hoped to become under a continuation of the previous set of containment policies [of the US],” he told Al Jazeera. “Iran will hold out for terms congruent with reality, and the US will hold out for terms compatible with the preservation of its superpower prestige.” Pakistan’s role under strain Naqvi was the third senior Pakistani official to visit Tehran in recent weeks, following army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir’s late April trip and an earlier joint visit by Munir and Naqvi. Heiran-Nia warned that Pakistan was approaching a critical threshold. “Pakistan is on the verge of shifting from being an indispensable channel to an option ignored by both sides,” he told Al Jazeera. “Once Iran and the US engage through other channels such as Oman or Qatar, or conclude that Pakistan is unable to impose its will on either side, Islamabad’s role will become marginal.” Mehran Kamrava, professor of international relations at Georgetown University in Qatar, however, pushed back on that assessment. “The collapse of the ceasefire would not necessarily mean Pakistan would be ignored by either side,” he told Al Jazeera. “Pakistan is critically important diplomatically as a source of contact and communication.” The divide between Washington and Tehran was wide and the animosities deep, he said, but that did not diminish Islamabad’s position. “It remains a key channel regardless of how the military situation evolves,” the Doha-based analyst said. Baghaei also confirmed on Monday that consultations with Oman were continuing, including expert-level talks in Muscat focused on guaranteeing safe navigation through Hormuz. Niaz argued that Pakistan had nonetheless achieved something tangible. “Pakistani diplomacy has produced a stay of execution and the beginning of a diplomatic process,” he said. The military picture US military assessments published by The New York Times said Iran had restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, with its missile stockpile estimated at roughly 70 percent of pre-war levels. Meanwhile, CNN reported that the US Pentagon had prepared target lists that included Iranian energy and infrastructure facilities. Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for Iran’s Armed Forces, warned on May 17 that any repeat of US military action to “compensate for America’s humiliation” would trigger “more crushing and intense strikes”. Heiran-Nia said the current crisis was more dangerous than previous cycles of brinkmanship. A direct naval clash, he warned, could trigger a rapid escalation “within the next 48 to 72 hours”. The weekend drone attacks, he noted, signalled how far Tehran might be willing to escalate. “It demonstrates how far red lines might be crossed in a new war,” he said. Kamrava said the risk of accidental escalation was as real as a deliberate one. “There is a tremendous amount of hardware in the region and an awful lot of mistrust among all parties,” he told Al Jazeera. He cautioned against viewing the situation as a purely bilateral US-Iran confrontation. “There are multiple flashpoints that could erupt at any moment,” he warned. After Beijing Trump had travelled to Beijing last week after weeks of messaging from his administration that Washington was hoping Chinese President Xi Jinping would pressure Tehran on opening up the Strait of Hormuz. But their talks failed to yield a breakthrough on Iran. Both sides agreed that the strait must be open for commerce and trade. But China blamed the US for the war. China had also instructed domestic companies the previous week to defy US sanctions targeting refiners purchasing Iranian crude. At a meeting of the BRICS coalition of economies in New Delhi on May 15, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged receiving messages from Washington regarding new talks, but said “distrust” remained. Nuclear issues, he added, would be “postponed” to later stages, a sequencing approach that Washington rejects. At Monday’s press conference, Baghaei said “America is no longer internationally credible” and urged regional countries, including the UAE, to draw lessons from recent months. Niaz said the standoff resembled another conflict that took years to shift course. “The situation is comparable to the US war in Vietnam after the Tet Offensive that shattered Washington’s claim the conflict was being won. That offensive proved that the US could not win and began the process of adjusting US policy to reality. But this adjustment took many years,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to the surprise North Vietnamese assault on more than 100 South Vietnamese cities in January 1968. Niaz described what lies ahead as “a prolonged stalemate punctuated by limited breakdowns of the ceasefire”.

Perspectives

Iranian Official

Iran firmly rejects US threats and aggression, viewing Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts as a necessary counter to Washington’s attempts to undermine Tehran’s sovereignty through renewed military pressure. As Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian leaders including President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, Iran continues to defend its rights while navigating stalled talks amid Trump’s warnings of further attacks.

Israeli

Pakistan views Iran's deepening entanglements with its proxy networks—from Hezbollah to the Houthis—as an existential threat that could reignite multi-front attacks on Israel following the fragile April ceasefire. While Pakistan attempts mediation to avert renewed US strikes, Israel's security requires sustained defensive measures to neutralize Tehran's nuclear and missile capabilities before they enable another round of coordinated aggression.

Neutral

Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during a visit to Tehran that began on Saturday. Ghalibaf has participated in talks between Iran and the United States. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump posted a warning addressed to Iran on social media.

Western

Pakistan's mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran are constrained by Iran's ongoing refusal to meet core demands on its nuclear program and regional aggression. As the April 8 ceasefire following US-Israel precision operations holds, President Trump has warned that time is short for Tehran to comply or face renewed targeted strikes to neutralize threats. Islamabad's diplomatic outreach highlights the limits of backchannel talks amid Iran's intransigence.

Pro-Peace

Pakistan’s mediation through Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s Tehran talks represents a vital diplomatic channel to prevent renewed US military strikes on Iran, which would inflict severe civilian casualties, displacement, and humanitarian suffering across the region. US threats of escalation, following the fragile April ceasefire in the US-Israel conflict, highlight the urgent need to prioritize negotiations over military posturing that endangers countless lives. Sustained diplomacy offers the only path to de-escalation and protecting vulnerable populations from further devastation.

Global South

Pakistan’s mediation bid in Tehran highlights the constrained agency of Global South states navigating US-Iran hostilities, where Washington’s renewed threats to resume strikes expose neo-colonial patterns of dictating terms to sovereign nations. As Interior Minister Naqvi engages Iranian officials to salvage stalled ceasefire talks, the episode reveals the persistent failure of multilateral mechanisms to restrain unilateral pressure from dominant powers.

Actors involved

USIsraelIranChina

Sources

  • Abid HussainBy Abid Hussain

    Pakistan’s mediation faces limits as Iran-US tensions deepen Tehran and Washington exchange proposals through Pakistan while military escalation increasingly shadows diplomatic efforts. Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan is scrambling to keep channels of diplomacy open between the Un

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

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The U.S. Central Command reported conducting strikes on Iranian military command centers, missile and drone sites, and air defense systems on Monday evening. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, and Houthi forces declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

Reports indicate that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, while Rystad Energy noted risks of higher oil prices.

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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.