Summary

As the United States' newly announced Project Freedom gets underway, two cargo vessels have safely passed through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. President Donald Trump said late Sunday that the U.S. military would "guide" shipping vessels through the vital trade route, announcing the new initiative just a few hours before it went into force. It is the latest U.S. attempt to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut to commercial traffic since the U.S. and Israel launched their initial attacks on Iran on February 28. Iran then quickly threatened to attack any ships it deemed unfriendly trying to travel through the strait and traffic in the waterway plummeting by up to 95 percent for weeks. Around one-fifth of the world's oil and gas and roughly one-third of global fertilizer supply—vital for growing food—usually journeys through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. last month placed its own blockade on Iranian ports but has so far been unsuccessful in dismantling Iran's control of the strait despite mounting pressure on Iran's economy, yoyoing global oil prices and growing fears for the welfare of trapped sailors and countries missing out on grain or humanitarian aid shipments. A fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran appeared to be at risk of shattering by early Tuesday, although Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the ceasefire—which has been in place since April 8—was "not over." Trump, meanwhile, said on Monday that the U.S. military had blown up seven Iranian "fast boats" trying to attack the U.S.-escorted shipping vessels, while Iranian state media denied that the U.S. had destroyed any Iranian vessels. The U.S. military said six Iranian "fast boats" were taken out, while Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency instead reported that five civilians were killed aboard two cargo vessels. The U.S. on Monday had also denied an Iranian claim that Tehran had struck a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz. Admiral Brad Cooper, the top commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, said Iran's military had launched "multiple cruise missiles, drones and small boats at ships we are protecting" but said the U.S. had intercepted all incoming attacks. Trump said Iran would be "blown off the face of the earth" if it targeted American ships, while Iran's military said U.S. forces "will be attacked if they intend to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz." In a similarly combative statement, Iran's influential parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Ghalibaf, said on Tuesday that Iran was "just getting started." What Is Project Freedom? Project Freedom is the name the U.S. government has given to its new plan to safely "guide" merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the U.S. military escort was a "humanitarian" gesture, while Hegseth described the escort as a "red, white and blue dome" stretching over the waterway. The U.S. military has said that an unspecified number of destroyers—U.S. warships equipped with long-range missiles able to strike targets on land or sea—and more than 100 aircraft will be involved. It's not clear how many of the aircraft will be advanced fighter jets that can launch various types of missiles, or planes used for surveillance. Drones of different types will be deployed as part of Project Freedom, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees American forces in the Middle East, said in a statement. It is likely to include unmanned systems that fly as well as ones that work on water and under the waves. Roughly 15,000 U.S. service members will participate, according to CENTCOM. Hegseth said Project Freedom would "protect innocent commercial shipping from Iranian aggression" and would be only a temporary measure. How Many Ships Are Stuck in the Gulf? Roughly 20,000 sailors, spread across around 2,000 ships, have been trapped around the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Nations' shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization, including different types of ships, from cargo vessels to oil tankers. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine, the U.S.'s top soldier, gave slightly different figures during a news conference alongside Hegseth on Tuesday, saying that roughly 22,500 mariners and 1,550 commercial ships are stuck in the gulf. Trump previously said the ships languishing around the gulf are "running low on food" and other necessities. Danish shipping giant Maersk has said that one of its U.S.-flagged ships has exited the strait with U.S. military protection. Another U.S.-flagged vessel has passed through the waterway since the start of Project Freedom. How Many US Ships Are Needed for Project Freedom? For U.S. Navy escorts to be effective in protecting much more vulnerable commercial ships, U.S. forces need more than just a couple of destroyers armed with missiles. U.S. warships need to be supported by planes and helicopters, as well as military systems based on land nearby, said retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, now a professor of practice of public administration and international affairs at Syracuse University. CENTCOM has also said that two of its aircraft carriers, each hosting dozens of aircraft, are involved in Project Freedom. Support for these warships from the air is "critical," Murrett told Newsweek. While fighter jets can help intercept any Iranian missiles trying to attack U.S. ships and cargo vessels, helicopters flying above can take on some of the other threats Iran poses. U.S. Apache and Seahawk helicopters targeted the Iranian "fast boats" earlier this week, Cooper said. It's hard to pinpoint how many warships, planes and helicopters are needed to accompany merchant ships through the strait, but it could take well over a month to clear the backlog of stranded ships, Murrett said. Only a handful would likely pass through the strait with U.S. protection each day, he said. The numbers also hinge on whether the shipping companies feel it's safe for their vessels to make the journey, whether insurers offer cover to these ships, and whether Iran tries to attack the U.S.-escorted tankers. What Can Iran Do Against Project Freedom? Iran has options, should it wish to retaliate against the new American plan. It can launch ballistic missile and airborne drone strikes on vessels making their way through the strait, deploy its "fast attack" boats or lay mines in the sea. Floating mines have been a major concern for the U.S. because they could explode on contact with commercial and military ships. Trump said on Monday that Iran had fired on several ships, damaging a South Korean cargo vessel, but that no other ships had been hit passing through the strait. Seoul said it was investigating the cause of an explosion aboard the HMM Namu vessel, and is considering joining Project Freedom, according to South Korean media. The United Arab Emirates said on Monday that Iran had launched missiles and drones at the country for the first time since the start of the April 8 ceasefire and that a drone had caused a fire at an oil port in the city of Fujairah. Three Indian nationals were injured, Indian and Emirati authorities said. The Emirati Defense Ministry has reported multiple drone and missiles barrages directed at the gulf state over the past day and said Iran had attacked a tanker linked to a state-owned oil company as it passed through the strait. The United Kingdom MaritimeTrade Operations (UKMTO) Centre, which is backed by the British military, said a tanker was hit by "unknown projectiles" north of Fujairah on Sunday, with no crew members injured. Iran has deployed "fast boats" throughout the conflict, and an unnamed Iranian security official told Reuters last month that these small vessels were now the "backbone" of Iran's naval strategy. They are small, fast boats that can be armed with weapons like machine guns or anti-ship missiles. Iran used "fast boats" to seize two containers ships trying to leave the strait in late April. Hegseth said on Tuesday that the U.S. needed to take the threat of small boats seriously. Oil Factor Against this backdrop, the U.S. has warned that Iran is running out of storage space for its oil supplies because of the U.S. blockade on exports from Iran's ports, ramping up the pressure on Tehran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that Iran could be forced to shut down its oil wells "in the next week." Iran's economy is deeply reliant on oil exports, most of which are sent out from Kharg Island, an island in the Persian Gulf. If Iran can't export its oil and runs out of storage, it may have to shutter its wells, although experts warn that it could permanently impact Iran's ability to extract oil.