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متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
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strikeSep 4, 2026

Rabobank: "The World As We Knew It No Longer Exists"

Summary

Rabobank: "The World As We Knew It No Longer Exists" Via Rabobank, As we move towards the end of another trading week, most action was again dominated by the now ubiquitous market bugbear of geopolitics. Central banks are trying to reassert themselves, but under that shadow, and as everything they understand starts to fall apart around them. Putin suggested he’s open to peace vs. Ukraine. That would be wonderful. It would also be remarkable given everything we have seen to date and the rumours we hear of imminent escalation – unless the peace is on his terms, of course. Notably, the Ukrainian press says another hard winter looms, which the government is not prepared for, and so does a possible new Russian northern front towards Kyiv. Trump considered declaring the Iran war over, again, days after he floated renaming Hormuz the Strait of America. We then got other stories pointing out that the White House thinks it’s better to pause this war until after the November midterms, then ramp things up again, as is our base case. The economic war vs. Iran obviously stays in place the while time. South Korea might send its forces to Hormuz to support the US, becoming the first ally to do so, showing US pressure on Seoul, which had many analysts’ eyes rolling, might achieve a result that could help reduce oil prices. Israel claimed regime change in Tehran is its main goal, which is close to being achieved, and that Hamas and Iran are planning attacks on its citizens globally over next few weeks that it will respond to directly should they occur. That is not to include the substantial risk that these two wars become openly conflated into one larger one on at least two fronts, as open and tacit cooperation between Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China is slowly noticed by a wider circle of Western experts. Even Argentina is rattling its sabre at the UK over the Falklands again, a claim the US may support if the British refuse to lead on NATO defence spending according to some – as the current UK is incapable of projecting a naval task force to the South Atlantic like it did back in 1982, speaking to a general western decline. It’s not for nothing that oil, while off yesterday’s peak, is likely to close the week with its largest weekly gain since July, as crack spreads remain staggeringly high and stocks of refined products such as diesel are staggering low. That is a structurally inflationary backdrop because refined products go into or into moving everything. It can only stop being structural if we know both wars are going to end; or that new refineries are going to be magically built years ahead of schedule; or that demand for everything is going to decline due to high prices, which is stagflationary. Neither of the first two are true, and the latter will have huge political consequences. From a geopolitical perspective, you can make peace on your opponent’s terms --but neither Ukraine with its drones nor Israel with its nukes will sign-- to bring oil down; or you can arm up to bring them and it down. Central banks are secondary to that dynamic except where they act on ‘second round effects’ or help on the peace or ‘arm up’ fronts. Markets can cheer another Fed speech from Waller that suggests that maybe rates don’t have to go up this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will. Markets can watch as JPY swings on heavy intervention again ahead of the BOJ almost certainly raising rates this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will. On which note, the BOJ looks like it’s being leaned on by Bessent to hike, who also wants to ensure JPY rises to stabilise US markets. Also watch the reported 155 level in JPY, beyond which we could see accumulated shorts unwound, pushing the currency even further. Indeed, when things unwind it’s a “slowly at first then all at once” non-linear process – and not just in markets, even if they then have to try and price for them. The Australian financial press just ran an op-ed calling for negative immigration, not lower net immigration, which would have been as unthinkable a few years ago as a collapsing housing market against which the RBA is likely to have to hike again. The same is happening in the US to some degree and various parties on the right in Europe are also talking about the same. Were it to occur, many political norms and economic assumptions built over the past few decades stop working. As VW sheds 50,000 jobs and closes plants, the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) argued the neo-mercantilist global backdrop leaves Europe vulnerable. It narrows EU options to: “international co-ordination”, i.e., a Plaza Accord for China; “strategic symmetry” to mirror China, requiring “the ECB to depart from its current policy of a freely floating exchange rate”; or “stronger trade defence measures”, i.e., tariffs, and maybe taxing capital inflows. It notes: “Clearly there is no easy pathway…This reflects the fundamental tension at the heart of this debate: the desire to maintain the international multilateral trade framework that has brought a great deal to Europe and to the world… At the same time, the issue of growing trade imbalances cannot be resolved within that framework, because it lacks the appropriate instruments.” It concludes four things, three of which are: Industrial policy is important, but by itself not enough to tackle strategic dependencies. Formulate a strategy that addresses both trade imbalances and innovation. Doing nothing also comes at a high price. Therefore, to address trade imbalances, all options need to be on the table, even if they are painful. Europe is lagging behind when it comes to applying and scaling up technological innovations. Commit to a coherent European innovation system. OpenAI claims it has overtaken Anthropic with its latest AI model, which is says could be considered to be “Artificial General Intelligence” or AGI. Is this marketing hype, or have we just had a true Manhattan Project moment that transforms everything? Who knows. But would you like to guess where equities, rates, FX, and commodities should sit if the US just developed a true AGI that can now improve itself at a non-linear rate? Now do it assuming we have two major, conflating, wars going on. In the US, Democrats refused to support a constitutional amendment to keep the Supreme Court capped at nine justices, as the Democratic Socialist Alliance refused to back populist Democrat AOC as a 2028 presidential candidate because she is ‘too mainstream.’ The DOJ also asked the Supreme Court to rule on the White House’s new executive order on mail-in voting, which could have a major impact on both the midterms and all subsequent US elections.   The fourth WRR conclusion I held back to the end was this: “The world as we knew it no longer exists. Dare to think outside existing frameworks.” Tyler Durden Fri, 09/04/2026 - 09:40

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Rabobank: "The World As We Knew It No Longer Exists" Via Rabobank, As we move towards the end of another trading week, most action was again dominated by the now ubiquitous market bugbear of geopolitics. Central banks are trying to reassert themselves, but under tha

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Friday said the conflict in Iran is “small potatoes” as he defended Vice President JD Vance for asserting that months of on-and-off attacks in the Middle East are not a “war.” Asked during an Oval Office exchange about Vance’s comments made a day earlier, Trump noted that U.

S. strikes on Iran are now “intermittent” and seemed to downplay the intensity of a war that's cost U.S. taxpayers more than $37.5 billion and left 18 U.S. service members dead. “I can understand what he’s saying,” said Trump. He added, “I call it a military conflict because it’s small potatoes for us.

It's not a big thing." Vance on Thursday, during a White House press briefing, rejected the use of the word “war” to describe the U.S. fighting with Iran and steered clear of predicting that the 6-month-old conflict would be over by November’s midterm elections, in which Republicans are trying to hang on to their narrow majorities in Congress.

“I wouldn’t call it a war,” Vance said after being asked during a White House press briefing about whether the fighting could end before voters cast their ballots in the Nov. 3 congressional elections. “Right now, there is no active shooting.” Vance’s assertion came even as Iran fired at U.

S. Gulf ally Kuwait on Thursday in retaliation for rounds of U.S. strikes on Iran earlier in the week. Trump in Friday's exchange with reporters added that the U.S. death toll in the Iran conflict is relatively lower than some other recent U.

S. wars. The U.S., along with Israel, have only carried out air strikes in the Iran war, which began on Feb. 28, and has not deployed troops into the country. “We did Venezuela and we did this. In Venezuela, we lost nobody,” said Trump, referring to the January U.

S. military operation to seize former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and spirit him to New York City to face federal drug trafficking charges. “And this, we lost 18 people. And, in Vietnam we lost 100,000 people. And in other conflicts, we lost tens of thousands of people.

” A total of 58,220 members of the U.S. armed forces died during the Vietnam War, according to records from the U.S. National Archives. Pressed by a reporter on describing the conflict as “small potatoes" when 18 U.S. service members have been killed, Trump responded by reiterating his argument that the conflict—one that he said at the outset of the war would last a matter of weeks—has led to the defanging of Iran's nuclear program.

“Iran will not have a nuclear weapon because if they did you probably wouldn’t be standing here,” Trump said.

strikeUnverifiedUSIran
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WASHINGTON (AP) — The widow of an airman killed on a combat mission in the Middle East said it took a viral social media post to get resolution from the Pentagon on issues related to her husband's benefits and basic pay months after his death.

Maj. Alex Klinner, 33, was one of six crew members of a KC-135 refueling aircraft that crashed in western Iraq in March while supporting operations against Iran. He's one of 18 U.S. service members killed, along with 790 wounded, since the war began more than six months ago.

The Air Force reached out to his widow, Libby Klinner, this week to clarify that his final paycheck would include hazard pay and combat-related tax breaks. This occurred after she voiced frustration on social media at being told by a military officer assigned to support her after her husband’s death that he was ineligible for those benefits because “we were not at war.

” “My husband lost his life because we’re in a war, and then I was told that because it’s not technically a war, we lose out on something,” Klinner told The Associated Press. “It all comes down to principle.” Trump administration is rejecting the ‘war’ label for current Iran operations Her post, made over the weekend, gained national attention.

Vice President JD Vance promised to look into her case after being asked about it during a White House briefing on Thursday. “We want to be as helpful as we can and ensure she gets everything that she is entitled to,” Vance said. “My message to her would be, ‘We love ya, we’re grateful for the sacrifice and we very much take very seriously our commitment to get you what you need to get.

’” In response to a separate question, Vance rejected the use of the word “war” to characterize U.S. fighting in Iran, saying that “there is no active shooting.” The military has launched strikes against targets in Iran twice this week, and Iran has retaliated by firing on U.

S. allies in the Gulf. On Friday, President Donald Trump called U.S. strikes “intermittent" and defended Vance's comments. “I call it a military conflict because it’s small potatoes for us,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

In late July, the Trump administration created a new, separate category in the Pentagon's casualty count system for those killed and wounded in renewed U.S.-Iran fighting. Pentagon officials said the change was necessary because “Operation Epic Fury,” the original name for combat operations against Tehran, had ended.

Since July 7, all U.S. casualties in the Middle East have been tallied under “Overseas Operations.” Widow says the Air Force has clarified the issues about her husband's pay Libby Klinner said Air Force officials contacted her this week to say they were initiating a review of her husband's pay.

The Air Force acknowledged to her Thursday that it had initially provided inaccurate information and clarified that she was receiving the full pay and benefits her husband was owed, she said. She said she was told that her husband's paycheck had already included but incorrectly itemized the combat-related hazard pay and tax breaks.

The pay incentives commonly known as “combat pay” are $225 per month and are not conditioned on a formal war declaration but just that the service member be in an area where there is “grave danger of physical injury” or be “killed, injured, or wounded by a hostile fire event,” according to a military website.

Alex Klinner’s final paycheck would have included half that amount since troops are paid twice per month. It is difficult to calculate how much in federal tax breaks Klinner would have been receiving without more information. Klinner declined to specify the amount of money she was initially told her husband, an eight-year Air Force veteran from Birmingham, Alabama, would be ineligible to receive.

The Air Force says it's committed to offering information and support The Air Force said officials spoke with Klinner this week to “ensure all her questions are fully addressed” and confirmed that “all eligible combat theater benefits were included” in her husband's pay.

“We remain committed to providing clear information and continued support to Mrs. Klinner, as well as all the families of the Airmen who died in the KC-135 crash,” the Air Force added. Broadly, errors in pay in the military are very common because service members can often gain or lose eligibility for a variety of payments depending on their deployment status, duty location or even family factors.

As a result, unlike their civilian counterparts, some troops can see their paychecks change many times a year depending on many factors — something that also increases the likelihood of errors. A GoFundMe for Libby Klinner and her three young children, launched in the days after her husband’s death, has raised more than $1.

5 million. Klinner said she hoped that by speaking out, other grieving families receive clear information from the outset. "I am very fortunate to have a significant support system around us and a platform to advocate for myself and for my kids.

Other families may not have those resources," she said. “If I can do anything to make this awful situation a little bit easier for someone else to navigate, then I am more than willing to do so.” ___ Brook reported from New Orleans.

Brook is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

strikeUnverifiedUSIran
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Vice President Vance has characterized the conflict with Iran as less than a "war," while expressing skepticism regarding reports that a U.S. strike targeted a wedding party. Concurrently, U.S. officials state that no major military operations are currently underway, leaving various strategic options open as the administration navigates the ongoing tension.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIranChina
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President Donald Trump on Friday labeled the Iran war “small potatoes,” the latest attempt to minimize a six-month conflict that caused a spike in gas prices and led to the deaths of 18 American service-members. “A lot of people don’t call it a war.

I call it a military conflict because it’s small potatoes for us. It’s not a big thing,” he said in the Oval Office. A day earlier, Vice President JD Vance said the conflict shouldn’t be termed a “war” since major combat operations ended months ago.

Trump similarly cast the conflict as periodic and low-grade, despite routine rounds of back-and-forth strikes. “I would say that it’s intermittent. You know, we do intermittent strikes,” Trump said, adding: “There’s a lot of truth that we’re not fighting right now.

There’s no fighting.” This week the US said it had targeted nearly 60 military targets around the Strait of Hormuz — including air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites — while simultaneously escorting ships through the waterway.

The administration had signaled it was moving past a military strategy, focusing instead on choking off Iran financially by applying sanctions on its trading partners. So far, however, the US has stopped short of punishing China, Tehran’s biggest economic lifeline.

Trump, who plans to host Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit this month, downplayed the assistance Beijing was providing. “They are not really involved. Very little involvement by China. China could have plenty of involvement,” he said. He also extolled potential new routes and pipelines that could bypass the Strait of Hormuz, including an overland alternative through Syria.

“They’re going to end up with a horrible strait that’s not really necessary any more,” he said. Trump also raised the prospect of a new operation soon to take out a suspected Iranian nuclear site south of Tehran. “We may hit Pickaxe very soon,” he said, referring to the underground facility where Iran is believed to have moved some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

But he still insisted the conflict was not a war. “It’s a military conflict, but it’s very intermittent. I could see somebody not calling it a war,” he said. He continued: “I don’t think it matters what you call it. What matters is the fact that we have had tremendous success.

” This story has been updated with additional details.