Instead, the Trump administration is preparing to rely more heavily on economic pressure, including a new sanctions campaign announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while maintaining a naval blockade around Iran. Also Read: United States pauses visa appointments worldwide until further notice The shift comes as Washington argues that its military operations have reduced Iran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage over global energy supplies.

The US Navy has cleared mines from the main shipping lane, while increasing numbers of tankers have been moving through the strait's southern channel. According to Axios, Rubio conveyed the administration's current strategy during calls with foreign counterparts.

The approach involves avoiding new military action against Iran for now, tightening economic pressure through sanctions and the naval blockade, and moving as much oil as possible through the Strait of Hormuz and into global markets. A US official said Rubio did not rule out military strikes if Iran attacks first, but made clear that Washington is not preparing to return to major combat operations at this stage.

Another US official said the removal of mines from the Strait of Hormuz marked a turning point in the conflict by weakening one of Iran's principal sources of leverage. "The Iranians have lost control over the strait. Now the U.S. controls it," the official said, according to Axios.

Also Read: Poll shows Trump’s Iran war loses support from Americans as anger grows US steps up economic pressureThe latest shift follows the Trump administration's new sanctions push against Iran. Bessent announced the campaign on Monday, targeting countries and entities that continue doing business with Tehran.

Axios reported that the expanded sanctions are expected to remain the main US tool against Iran at least until after the US midterm elections, although a fresh military campaign could again be considered later. The Treasury Department has broadened the scope of secondary sanctions to areas including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping.

It has also sanctioned dozens of entities, individuals and vessels linked to activities including oil smuggling and the procurement of nuclear and missile technology. The US blockade is also squeezing Iran's oil revenues. US officials told Axios that almost no tankers have been seen at Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, over the past two weeks.

"The Iranian economy is in free fall and the regime's military has been decimated," State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott told Axios, "and we are cutting off every financial lifeline the regime has remaining." He added, "The President has been clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and that he will use the tools necessary to ensure that objective is accomplished.

" Hormuz becomes a key pressure pointWashington's strategy is closely tied to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of the world's oil supplies traditionally moves. The US military has been operating a shipping corridor through the southern part of the strait, allowing tankers to move oil despite the wider conflict.

Axios reported last week that 15 to 20 tankers had been moving through the channel each night, carrying around 10 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half the pre-war volume. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said the US Navy had cleared all mines from the main international shipping lane.

US officials confirmed that the Navy had cleared the Traffic Separation Scheme, allowing ships to move in both directions through the central lane. The developments have further weakened Iran's ability to use the waterway as a bargaining chip, according to US officials.

They also raise questions over the relevance of a separate arrangement being discussed between Iran and Oman to restore safe navigation through the strait. Pakistan steps into diplomacyThe diplomatic track remains active despite Washington's decision to maintain economic pressure.

Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, travelled to Tehran on Sunday for talks with Iranian leaders. Pakistan has acted as a mediator between Washington and Tehran since the conflict began. According to Saudi-affiliated broadcaster Al Arabiya, Munir spoke with Trump before travelling to Iran and presented a possible new proposal to the Iranian side.

The White House did not deny that Trump had spoken with Munir, but said there were no current or scheduled negotiations between the US and Iran. US officials told Axios that the improved flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced Iran's leverage in any future negotiations.

"Right now we are not negotiating with Iran. We are squeezing them. The pressure could drive the Iranians back to the table," a US official said. What happens nextThe Trump administration's current strategy therefore combines economic pressure with a military posture designed to deter Iran from renewed attacks, rather than immediately expanding the conflict.

The possibility of military action remains open if Tehran attacks US forces, commercial shipping or allies. Axios reported that Washington's policy could remain focused on sanctions and economic pressure until after the midterm elections, when a renewed military campaign could again be considered.

Meanwhile, White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who have been involved in efforts to negotiate with Iran, are expected to visit US Central Command on Wednesday for briefings on developments, according to a source familiar with the plans.

The shift marks a notable change in emphasis for the Trump administration: rather than immediately escalating airstrikes, Washington is betting that the combination of the naval blockade, restored oil traffic through Hormuz and tougher sanctions can force Tehran back to the negotiating table.

The Commodities Feed: Oil falls as Strait of Hormuz talks advance - Published 02:46 - - - Commodities daily Oil prices remain under downward pressure as Iran and Oman talks on the Strait of Hormuz move forward and Pakistan signals some progress in talks with Iran to end the Middle East war Energy – Russia looking to extending diesel export ban Oil prices continue to retreat, with ICE Brent settling 3.

89% lower yesterday and breaking below $90/bbl. This downward pressure continued in early morning Asia trading today. The catalyst appears to be positive signals from Persian Gulf talks. Following a visit to Tehran, Pakistani officials say they have made significant progress on ending the war.

Meanwhile, Iran and Oman appear closer to an agreement on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, any agreement between these two parties does not mean we will see normalisation in oil flows through the key chokepoint. We would likely need to see the US lift its blockade on Iranian ports and ease sanctions on Iran before we see any move towards normalisation.

Oil‑flow surveillance has quietly become one of the market’s most critical risk metrics. Tankers are increasingly transiting the Strait of Hormuz with transponders switched off, complicating visibility just as there’s been a noticeable pickup in shuttle movements moving crude out of the Persian Gulf.

Together, these trends make real‑time tracking of Hormuz flows a far more consequential and challenging task for traders. The US claims that an average of 8-9m b/d of oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, which may be achievable over short time periods.

However, over a longer time frame, this number seems aggressive. Several ship-tracking estimates are coming in much lower, ranging from 2m b/d to around 6m b/d. Overnight API inventory data show US crude oil inventories rose by 4.2m barrels over the last week.

However, the products market tightened further, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 3.2m barrels and 500k barrels, respectively. Reports say Russia is considering extending its diesel export ban until 1 October amid ongoing attacks on refinery infrastructure in the country.

This has tightened the domestic fuel market. Russia originally announced an export ban on 8 July, which was then extended until 1 September. Russia is the second-largest diesel exporter. So, the extended ban matters for the market, particularly given the tightness we are seeing globally in middle distillates.

Agriculture – Russia considers suspending grain export duty Russia's Agriculture Ministry is considering suspending floating export duties on wheat, barley, and corn until the end of 2026. The proposal comes amid continued disruptions in shipments from the Azov Sea and Black Sea, which account for over 70% Content DisclaimerThis publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.

The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.

Go for gold, US dollar or Singapore stocks as Middle East conflict escalates? - Gold could continue to rise as it often benefits from geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. PHOTO: AFP SINGAPORE – Financial markets have been on a roller coaster since the United States and Israel first launched military strikes against Iran on Feb 28, killing its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior commanders.

Tensions continued to rise through the week, with the US torpedoing an Iranian naval ship in international waters in the Indian Ocean – making it one of about 20 vessels the US military said it has struck – as Iran retaliated across the Persian Gulf by striking US bases, surrounding Gulf cities and oil facilities.

The escalating conflict has jolted global energy markets with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz all but halted, affecting a fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas. On March 6, the US warned that firepower over Iran could surge “dramatically” while Israel declared it is moving into the “next phase” of war.

With volatility likely to persist, investors seeking to optimise returns or hedge their portfolios against further uncertainty may want to consider holding the following three assets. 1. Opportunity in Singapore stocks Investors seeking regional diversification may want to consider Singapore stocks, Mr Afdhal Rahman, executive director of wealth advisory at OCBC Bank, said in a March 3 note to clients.

The Straits Times Index (STI) has held up relatively well compared with other global markets amid the recent volatility. The benchmark fell to a one-month low of around 4,775 points on March 4 before rebounding to close at 4,848.25 on March 6, 4.4 per cent higher so far this year.

Mr Rahman said Singapore’s market has outperformed global equities on a total-return basis over the past five years and is increasingly viewed as a regional safe haven, supported by a stable currency and resilient economy, as well as predictable policies that are positive for the market.

In the Singapore Budget 2026 unveiled on Feb 12, for example, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced an expansion of its Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) by $1.5 billion to $6.5 billion. The EQDP was launched in July 2025 as a $5 billion MAS initiative to invest in and boost the vibrancy of the Singapore stock market.

Some $3.95 billion has so far been allocated to nine fund managers to invest in local stocks. Mr Rahman noted that large-cap stocks could benefit from solid earnings and reliable dividends, while small- and mid-cap counters may continue to draw support from initiatives including the EQDP.

He said the STI’s dividend yield of about 4 per cent to 5 per cent could also appeal to investors looking for regular income, adding that actively managed funds can help investors find opportunities across different Singapore stocks. Analysts at Citi Research noted on March 3 that certain sectors have historically shown resilience or even a mildly positive relationship with rising oil prices.

Specifically, OCBC Bank, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Keppel, SATS and City Developments were identified as top picks for the next six to 12 months. 2. More upside for gold Investors worried about market uncertainty can consider safe haven assets such as gold for some stability, Mr Rahman said.

However, those who already hold a lot of gold – especially after prices climbed sharply over the past year – may want to spread their investments across other assets that have recently fallen in price. Gold typically makes up about 4 per cent of a balanced investment portfolio, he added.

Pictet Wealth Management said in a March 4 note that gold could continue to rise as the metal often benefits from geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. However, prices tend to fall back once the situation stabilises. Gold prices, which jumped when the US and Israel first struck Iran, have dropped about 3 per cent this week to US$5,106 an ounce on March 6.

Mr Carsten Menke, head of next generation research at Julius Baer, said the decline was surprising given the rise in risk aversion, though investors buying up the US dollar and selling their holdings in gold may be driving the drop. Commodities such as gold are priced in US dollars, meaning a stronger dollar can make the metal less attractive and more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Still, Mr Menke said that while gold has not always held gains after geopolitical shocks, it is still widely seen as a safe haven asset that can help stabilise portfolios during periods of financial market volatility. 3. Riding a stronger US dollar The other asset that has seen inflows since the start of hostilities on Feb 28 is the US dollar, which seems to have reclaimed its safe haven mantle.

The US dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies – is on course for a 1.4 per cent gain this week, offsetting declines earlier in the year and bringing the currency to a net gain for 2026. The greenback has strengthened against regional currencies.

The Singapore dollar has fallen by 1.14 per cent against the US currency over the week, trading at 1.2783 at 10.35am on March 6. Aside from its appeal as a safe haven asset, the US dollar has risen against major and regional currencies due to concerns that higher oil prices could keep US inflation high, reducing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, Maybank head of foreign exchange research Saktiandi Supaat said.

He noted that markets now see only a 37 per cent chance of a rate cut in June, compared with 50 per cent a month ago. When prices rise too quickly, the Fed keeps interest rates high to slow spending and borrowing. RBC Wealth Management forecasts that should the war drag on, oil prices could reach US$100 per barrel compared with US$83 per barrel on March 6, while global natural gas prices, which have spiked more than 50 per cent, could at least hit their highest level since the first quarter of 2023.

Still, analysts at MUFG said the US dollar could weaken later in 2026 if Mr Kevin Warsh, who is expected to succeed Mr Jerome Powell as Fed chairman, supports further rate cuts after taking office. This story was first published in The Straits Times on March 6, 2026.

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The Stoxx 600 index rose 0.35% on Tuesday, closing at 656.48 points, driven by a US sanctions package on Iran that market participants viewed as less severe than anticipated and by declining oil prices. Sector leaders included healthcare, which gained 1.

2% on strong results from Novo Nordisk, and industrials, which rose 1.1% following production updates from Melrose Industries. Iran has indicated it may retaliate against the new sanctions, though the extent of such measures remains unverified.