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strikeMay 11, 2026

Stocks edge up ahead of US-China meeting; oil rallies on US-Iran stalemate

Summary

Stocks edge up ahead of US-China meeting; oil rallies on US-Iran stalemate US President Donald Trump is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, with the Middle East expected to be a key part of the agenda. NEW YORK: US equity indexes inched ahead to record closing highs while the dollar edged higher on Monday (May 11), as investors awaited a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Oil prices rallied as Trump said the US ceasefire with Iran was "on life support", after dismissing Tehran's response to a US peace proposal as "stupid". His remarks stoked worries that the 10-week-old conflict will drag on, paralysing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's response had focused on ending the war on all fronts and Tehran demanded compensation for war damage, emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and called on the US to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and remove a ban on Iranian oil sales. But, with the Middle East expected to be a key part of the agenda this week at Trump and Xi's first face-to-face talks in more than six months, Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that investors were cautiously hopeful for some progress toward peace. "It's all about the strait and when it's going to open," said Wren. "There's some optimism that China will have some influence in resolving the strait issue." On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 13.91 points, or 0.19 per cent to 7,412.84 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 27.05 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 26,274.13, record closing highs for both. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 95.31 points, or 0.19 per cent, to 49,704.47, still shy of its Feb 10 record close. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 2.38 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 1,108.01. Earlier the pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.11 per cent. In currencies, the dollar retreated from session highs after Trump's rebuff of Iran's response kept concerns about an extended war intact. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.05 per cent to 97.96, with the euro down 0.06 per cent at US$1.1777. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.37 per cent to 157.23. Sterling weakened 0.16 per cent to US$1.361 as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer attempted to quell a rebellion within his ruling Labour party following a mauling in last week's local elections. In energy markets, oil prices settled up nearly 3 per cent after Trump's comments fueled supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed with no clear end in sight for the war. US crude settled up 2.78 per cent, or US$2.65 at US$98.07 a barrel. Brent rose to US$104.21 per barrel, up 2.88 per cent, or US$2.92 for the day. US Treasury yields rose as rising oil prices stoked inflation worries. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose 4.6 basis points to 4.41 per cent, from 4.364 per cent late on Friday. The 30-year bond yield rose 3.6 basis points to 4.9835 per cent. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 5.9 basis points to 3.952 per cent. Gold prices reversed course to rise in volatile trading on Monday, as investors assessed developments in US-Iran diplomacy and waited for key US inflation data due later this week. Spot gold rose 0.44 per cent to US$4,735.39 an ounce. US gold futures rose 0.15 per cent to US$4,727.70 an ounce.

Perspectives

Iranian Official

Iran has firmly asserted its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz while demanding an end to the US naval blockade, compensation for war damages from foreign aggression, and the lifting of illegal sanctions that ban Iranian oil sales. Washington's dismissal of Tehran's peace-focused response as inadequate has prolonged the conflict, with US actions threatening regional stability and disrupting shipping routes. As the upcoming Trump-Xi talks loom, Iran's resistance underscores its refusal to yield to external pressures.

Israeli

Israel views the collapsing US-Iran ceasefire as confirmation of Tehran's existential threat, with its proxy networks and demands for Strait of Hormuz control enabling sustained aggression that endangers Israeli survival and global energy lifelines. Defensive necessity requires maintaining the naval blockade and sanctions to prevent Iran from converting any truce into renewed attacks or oil leverage. Hopes pinned on the Trump-Xi talks reflect the urgent need for external pressure to neutralize these Iranian capabilities before they escalate further.

Neutral

US equity indexes closed at record highs and oil prices rose on May 11 amid investor focus on an upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump described the US ceasefire with Iran as on life support after rejecting Iran's response, which sought an end to hostilities, compensation for damages, and the lifting of sanctions and blockades. Strategist Scott Wren stated that any progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz could depend on China's role in the talks.

Western

US equities reached record highs ahead of President Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, where strategic talks aim to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by neutralizing Iranian threats to global energy routes. Oil prices rallied after Trump described the ceasefire as on life support, citing Tehran’s refusal to accept terms that would end its blockade and provocations. Markets viewed potential Chinese influence as a means to achieve precise diplomatic pressure for de-escalation aligned with Western security interests.

Pro-Peace

As the US-Iran conflict enters its eleventh week with the ceasefire on life support, civilian casualties and humanitarian suffering mount amid naval blockades that paralyze shipping and block vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's demands to end all fighting, secure compensation for war damage, lift sanctions, and guarantee no further attacks highlight the urgent need for genuine diplomacy rather than stalemate. With Trump and Xi set to discuss the crisis, renewed international pressure for a comprehensive peace deal remains the only path to sparing further lives and easing the blockade's devastating costs.

Global South

US markets edged higher ahead of Trump-Xi talks while oil rallied as Washington's faltering ceasefire exposed the breakdown of US-imposed diplomacy in the Gulf. Iran's demands to end the naval blockade, lift sanctions, secure compensation and affirm sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz highlight resistance to neo-colonial pressure that threatens energy routes vital to Global South economies. Hopes pinned on Beijing reflect deepening multipolar pushback against unilateral Western control of regional conflicts.

Actors involved

USIranChina

Sources

  • CNABy CNA

    Stocks edge up ahead of US-China meeting; oil rallies on US-Iran stalemate US President Donald Trump is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, with the Middle East expected to be a key part of the agenda. NEW YORK: US equity indexes inched ahead to record closing hig

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina
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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
1 source

The U.S. Central Command reported conducting strikes on Iranian military command centers, missile and drone sites, and air defense systems on Monday evening. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, and Houthi forces declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

Reports indicate that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, while Rystad Energy noted risks of higher oil prices.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy
1 source

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.