Summary

Taiwan should work closely with the US, Japan and other countries to prepare for contingencies and conduct exercises to bolster deterrence against a possible Chinese military invasion or blockade, a former US assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs said on Monday. Based on how China is developing its capabilities, and how it is conducting training, Beijing is preparing for a ground invasion and a blockade of Taiwan, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission chairman Randall Schriver said in an interview with the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper) during a visit to Taiwan. Taiwan must prepare for both contingencies, he said. Photo: Lo Pei-de, Taipei Times A Chinese blockade of Taiwan is more likely, but would pose less danger, he said, adding that while a military invasion is less likely, it would pose an extremely high level of danger. The US, Japan and other nations concerned about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait should consider all possible outcomes, Schriver said. The Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, which Schriver also chairs, has repeatedly called for the US and Japan to work with Taiwan on contingency plans for countering a blockade, he said. Such plans, reinforced with exercises, should consider how to keep the sea lanes between the Port of Keelung and Japan’s Yonaguni Island open, he said. Beijing’s “gray zone” tactics include using the China Coast Guard to “uphold the law” in waters off eastern Taiwan while keeping Chinese actions below the threshold that would trigger a military response, constraining Taiwan’s room to act and maneuver its forces, he said. Commission vice chairman Michael Kuiken added that Beijing is also shortening the time available for Taiwan, the US and other friendly nations to respond. As the US has not had a permanent military presence in Taiwan since the termination of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty on Jan. 1, 1980, the US needs time to wade through internal politics before it can come to Taiwan’s aid, Kuiken said. Taiwan’s push for whole-of-society defense resilience is the right move, as supplies of liquefied natural gas and munitions are finite and could not be replenished if the nation were blockaded, Schriver said. Taiwan should also work with countries that could help it prevent a blockade, such as Japan and the Philippines, he said, praising Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) for visiting the Philippines after taking office. Most of the policies Taiwan is enacting are stops in the right direction, but the nation needs to allocate resources with greater urgency and focus in certain areas, he added. BRACE FOR WET DAYS: Heavy rain is expected in Hualien, Taitung and the Hengchun Peninsula, and northern areas would see localized showers, it said A tropical depression east of the Philippines is expected to strengthen into Typhoon Noul, and a sea warning was likely to be issued as early as 11:30pm last night, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. The storm would be closest to Taiwan tomorrow, and bring heavy rain to Hualien and Taitung counties, as well as the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島), it said. If the storm strengthens into a typhoon, it would be the 12th this year. As the storm has maintained a steady speed, it is expected to cross the Bashi Channel relatively quickly, CWA forecaster Tseng Chao-cheng (曾昭誠) said. The storm is forecast A magnitude 5.6 earthquake struck New Taipei City in northern Taiwan at 8:36pm today, the Central Weather Administration said. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The epicenter was about 35.8km east-southeast of New Taipei City Hall, at a depth of 95.7km, the agency said. The earthquake's intensity was highest in Yilan County, New Taipei City, Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu County, Hualien County, Taichung and Miaoli County, where it measured 3 on Taiwan's 7-tier intensity scale. The quake also measured an intensity of 2 in Keelung, Hsinchu City, Nantou County, Changhua County and Yunlin County, the agency said. Taiwanese planning trips to Morocco should carefully assess their travel plans, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said today, following reports that a travel agency had suspended its visa authorization letter application service for people visiting the country. Lion Travel yesterday said in a notice on its Web site that the Moroccan embassy in Japan had stopped accepting visa applications, prompting the company to suspend its visa authorization letter application service for people visiting Morocco. Taiwanese are required to obtain an entry visa authorization letter before traveling to Morocco, the Bureau of Consular Affairs Web site says. Applications are submitted through the Moroccan BOUNDARIES: The ALP’s decision to make it clear Taiwanese officials could stay was the right response and parties are not bound by Australia’s ‘one China’ policy, an expert said Chinese diplomats on Thursday walked out of the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP) national conference after complaining about the presence of Taiwanese officials, the Australian Broadcasting Corp (ABC) reported. Three Chinese diplomats observing the conference approached ALP National Secretary Paul Erickson and demanded that two officials from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Australia — Taiwan’s de facto embassy — be removed from the venue, the report said. The Taiwanese officials were attending as general observers rather than as “international observers,” a category that includes foreign diplomats and representatives of political parties from many countries, it said. Erickson “made it clear” that the