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strikeMar 14, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz has always had a problem. So where are the alternatives?

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The Strait of Hormuz has always had a problem. So where are the alternatives? Of all the risks the global energy system has long faced, none was bigger or better known than the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow passageway out of the Persian Gulf is both vital – serving as the only gateway to the rest of the world for huge amounts of oil and natural gas – and extremely vulnerable to attacks. But despite being widely recognised as a potential choke point, the strait remains the only way to export most of the energy produced in the region. That has come into sharp relief heading into the third week of the war in the Middle East, as the near-closure of the waterway sent oil prices soaring above $US100 a barrel for the first time in almost four years. The reason there is no true alternative comes down to a combination of geography, political tensions and economic competition among the region’s oil powers. There have been efforts to circumvent the strait, notably by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. But the pipelines through those countries can carry only a small fraction of the energy produced in the Persian Gulf. For many other energy-producing countries in the region, the only way to avoid the strait would be to lay a pipeline across a neighbouring country – an expensive and politically fraught endeavour. Take Qatar, one of the world’s biggest natural gas exporters. Its only land border is with Saudi Arabia, a country that cut off diplomatic ties and closed that border during a regional spat resolved five years ago. Plus, any pipeline would itself be vulnerable to Iranian attacks. “There’s nothing which is totally secure here,” said John Browne, a former CEO of the London-based oil giant BP, once known as the Anglo-Iranian oil company. “In the end, someone with bad intention can do all sorts of things to oil and gas infrastructure.” Some oil analysts also assumed that, if the time came, the United States, which has a keen interest in keeping energy markets stable, would use its military might to keep the strait passable. “There always has been the nightmare scenario, but it seemed to be a scenario that was not very likely,” said Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning energy historian and vice chair of the research firm S&P Global. “The diversification or security came from the fact that the consumers would be there to protect the oil.” But in this case, the United States, acting with Israel, instigated the conflict by attacking Iran on February 28. While President Donald Trump has floated the possibility of providing US naval escorts for oil and gas tankers, he has not followed through so far. With Iran attacking vessels and refineries, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to less than 10 per cent of their prewar levels, according to the International Energy Agency. And Qatar, the region’s gas-exporting powerhouse, has not been cooling natural gas for shipment since the early days of the war. As a result, oil, natural gas and other commodities are stuck. Some countries are putting more fuel in storage tanks, but those are running out of room. That is forcing countries to cut back. Within little more than a week, oil production collectively fell by several millions of barrels a day in Iraq, Kuwait, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, according to estimates from the research firm Rystad Energy. All told, countries across the region slashed production by at least 10 million barrels of oil a day by Tuesday — around 10 per cent of global supply — according to the IEA. Companies are also turning much less oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as they shut down refineries or operate them at lower levels. “It doesn’t matter where the price of oil gets. If you can’t sell any oil, you might as well keep it under the ground,” said Shwan Ibrahim Taha, chair of Iraqi bank Rabee Securities. The six fossil-fuel-rich countries of the Gulf — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain — belong to a loose union called the Gulf Cooperation Council, but cooperation is often lacking. Leaders have talked about building a unified passenger and freight rail system for more than a decade to little avail. Building a shared system for exporting energy would be substantially more fraught and unlikely to surmount political and economic hurdles. In recent years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two most powerful countries in the region, have often been at odds, pursuing different oil policies and backing different parties in armed conflicts around the region, including in Yemen, a poor war-torn country that has a long border with Saudi Arabia and sits at the opening of the Red Sea. More than a quarter of the oil typically exported via the Strait of Hormuz in the form of either crude or fuels like diesel is still able to get out, the IEA estimated. That is because the UAE built a short pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah that started operating in 2012, circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has targeted facilities on both ends. The biggest alternative is Saudi Arabia’s conduit to the Red Sea, which opened in the 1980s during what came to be known as the “tanker wars” between Iran and Iraq. The pipeline can carry up to 7 million barrels of oil a day. But with 2 million barrels headed to refineries within the kingdom, only about 5 million barrels a day of capacity is available to oil that otherwise would be shipped through the strait, Amin H. Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, said this past week. “Immediately, as the Strait of Hormuz starts closing, we ramped up production through the East-West pipeline,” he said. Nasser separately warned that global oil markets would face “catastrophic consequences” without access to the strait. Iran has also managed to move some oil through the strait on tankers, frustrating UAE officials. “How come they are allowed to sell, while we are deprived from selling?” asked Nadim Koteich, an Emirati Lebanese commentator who is close to the UAE government. The end result is that “someone is picking up the tab” from the war’s disruptions, “and that’s us” — even after the UAE invested in contingency plans, like its pipeline, he added. On Friday (US Time), Trump said the United States attacked military sites on Kharg Island, Iran’s main hub for exporting oil, but had spared oil infrastructure on the island “for reasons of decency.” Even if the war ends with a severely weakened Iran, insurgents could emerge to attack shipping through the strait, putting the lives of sailors and valuable ships and cargo at risk. Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi militia has done just that in the Red Sea over the past few years. At relatively little expense, the group was able to significantly disrupt global shipping through that passage to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal. How countries respond to the “nightmare scenario” of a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as Yergin put it – including whether they decide to build more pipelines – will depend partly on how long the waterway remains impassable. Even once it becomes safe to sail the strait again, it is likely to take weeks or months for oil production to reach prewar levels, the IEA has said. “What people have been warning about has finally happened,” said Majid Jafar, CEO of Crescent Petroleum, an oil and gas producer based in the UAE. “We’ll have to see how the world adjusts.” This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.

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Japan’s Defense Ministry said Friday that Iran used its geographical advantage to “inflict unbearable costs at a relatively low military expense,” effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz by indicating that it had laid naval mines, Kyodo News reported.

The ministry said Japan would strengthen its defense capabilities based on lessons from the US-Iran war, including by using defense equipment also operated by allies and like-minded partners to help ensure rapid supplies from other countries. It also stressed the need to maintain sufficient missile stockpiles and be prepared to quickly increase defense equipment production in an emergency, according to its first report analyzing the Iran war since February.

The US-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28, with attacks targeting military, nuclear and infrastructure sites across the country. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and US military facilities across the region. READ: EU joins US-led campaign to isolate Iran financially: Treasury chief Bessent Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 concerning freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but its implementation has stalled amid disagreements over security arrangements in the strait.

The Japanese report also said the country should take its own geographical characteristics into account when developing combat strategies, including the fact that it is surrounded by sea. The report noted the US use of AI to accelerate decision-making and operations, citing attacks on around 1,000 targets within 24 hours, while also highlighting the risk of AI making incorrect judgments.

“It is important to establish a process that maximizes the benefits of AI while ensuring appropriate human involvement,” the ministry said. The report comes ahead of a planned revision of Japan’s key security documents by the end of this year.

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A major offensive by Yemen's Houthis to seize control of the gateway to the Red Sea has left more than 120 people dead, sources told AFP Friday, the country's deadliest clashes in years. Fighting erupted on Thursday, after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a ground assault along with rocket and drone attacks near coastal areas, vying for control of the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait at the Red Sea's southern entrance.

Yemen, embroiled in more than a decade of civil conflict, in July became the latest country to be drawn into the Middle East war as the Houthis upended a 2022 truce with the Saudi-backed government. Since then, the Houthis have imposed a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and repeatedly attacked its ships in the Red Sea -- a vital alternative route for oil exports after Iran all but halted Gulf shipments by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

The rebels are now trying to tighten their hold over the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, which they have disrupted with attacks on passing vessels since the Gaza war broke out in 2023. The Houthi offensive aims to cut off the government-held port city of Mokha, under fire for weeks, and advance towards areas bordering the Bab al-Mandab, military sources told AFP.

The rebels have seized elevated sites overlooking government positions near the Red Sea and the city of Taiz further inland, a military source and a Taiz official told AFP, requesting anonymity. The Houthis could target ships from these elevated positions, they said.

The toll rose to 129 on Friday, according to an AFP tally compiled from several sources, up from an earlier count of 81. A Yemeni military official speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP that 66 of his men had been killed, while medical and military sources close to the Houthis said at least 62 militants had died.

Another medical source said a civilian had also been killed. Although the Houthis do not control areas bordering Bab al-Mandab, they hold the key port city of Hodeida north of Mokha. "They are going for Bab al-Mandab," said Mohammed al-Basha, of the US-based risk advisory Basha Report.

The Houthis want to control the hills overlooking Bab al-Mandab and Mokha before attacking the coast, a Yemeni official in Aden, the government's base since it was ousted from the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, in 2014. The government has sent reinforcements to Taiz from Aden on Saudi orders, he said.

"The Houthis feel that if they capture Bab al-Mandab or Mokha port they will be in a better position of power to negotiate with the government and the Saudis," Basha added. With Iran's closure of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint has gained increased importance as a transit route for oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of crude.

The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea -- and, via the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean -- to the Indian Ocean. In July, a fragile truce between the Houthis and the government fell apart after the rebels welcomed an Iranian plane to Sanaa, setting off a spate of attacks.

They later announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and began hitting its ships and territory.

Location: Tyre
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If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Israel started bombing Iran's nuclear facilities the next day, soon joined by the U.

S. Iran's uranium-enrichment plants were destroyed or badly damaged. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

FRESH DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

"(The board) requests the (IAEA) Director General to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions ... to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations," said the latest resolution draft seen by Reuters.

It also "reiterates its call upon Iran to urgently remedy its non-compliance with its Safeguards Agreement by taking all steps deemed necessary by the Agency and the Board, so that the Director General can provide the necessary assurances regarding the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations".

The draft has not yet been formally submitted to the board and negotiations over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. Whenever the four powers have submitted a draft resolution on Iran in recent years, it has passed. Concrete action by the Security Council against Iran is unlikely since Tehran's allies Russia and China are permanent, veto-wielding members.

IAEA CONCERNS OVER ENRICHMENT Iran has often retaliated following IAEA board resolutions against it by escalating its nuclear activities or scaling back cooperation with the IAEA, but its options for both are currently extremely limited. It is unclear what other repercussions there might be on Tehran's conflict with the U.

S. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes. Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb.

The IAEA has said the amount it has enriched to that level is of serious concern. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to that level before its sites were bombed. That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem