strikeJul 18, 2026

Trump may have to choose between an endless quagmire and ceding the Strait of Hormuz to Iran | Fortune

Summary

Nearly five months into the war in Iran, the conflict has entered a “second round” as bombs fly throughout the Middle East after a temporary truce collapsed. Iran is again threatening passage through the now-infamous Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian oil exports. As the world’s emergency petroleum supplies dangerously dwindle and prices again rise, the Trump administration appears to have lost the upper hand and faces a stark choice: escalate the conflict in a prolonged morass resembling Ukraine, or capitulate and let Iran control the world’s leading energy artery—with the ability to charge service fees for passage and recoup costs, a toll in all but name— energy and geopolitical analysts told Fortune. The decision could shape energy and fuel prices heading into the fall, including the midterm elections, and set a precedent for how far the U.S. will go to defend global shipping lanes. “I don’t think there’s any military option for reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy with the Eurasia Group. “The Iranians have considerable leverage here. I don’t see them backing down and, honestly, time is probably on their side.” Despite being militarily battered and with much of its leadership killed early in the war, the Iranian regime remains steadfast and determined to hold onto its prize—the narrow waterway that controls nearly 20% of the world’s energy flows, Brew said. Whatever the result, the Persian Gulf is unlikely to return to a free flow of energy and trade, he added. “The options are to escalate or cut a deal. And I think the [Trump] administration is likely to do the first, see it fail, and end up with the second,” Brew said. When the 60-day, interim peace deal was reached in mid-June, traffic through the strait began to resume—but not to normal levels—and energy prices plunged as oil markets even began to predict a temporary glut. The global oil benchmark fell from a high of $124 per barrel in early May down to $68 at the start of July, lower than expected. Already though, it surged back above $88 per barrel as of July 17. Global stockpiles are dwindled—the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a 43-year low—U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and China, which sharply cut its imports and leaned on its hefty reserves to help balance the global market, hasn’t yet started buying more oil. “All of the signs point to higher prices and a longer duration,” said oil forecaster Dan Pickering, founder of the Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm. “We’re in the fifth month of this. We have fewer strategic reserves. We have less flexibility, less optionality. It’s a more precarious starting point for round two.” Iranian determination As tanker traffic rose in late June and early July, the U.S. encouraged more vessels to take a southern, shallower route closer to Oman through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid making extra payments to Iran. The Iranian regime interpreted this as an existential threat and the ceasefire broke down on July 7 when Iran opened fire on vessels hewing closer to the Omani shoreline. Yet again, the U.S. launched strategic attacks on Iran, and Iran countered with strikes on its Gulf neighbors, including at U.S. military installations. U.S. forces have bombed Iran every night this week, including civilian bridges. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain acknowledged damage to their power grids or refineries from Iran. Kuwait said a water desalination plant was hit for the first time, threatening the primary source of drinking water for the Middle East’s population. Trump even proposed—then quickly shelved—an exorbitant 20% toll on Hormuz traffic. The U.S. position remains that Iran cannot be allowed to charge fees for passage. Still, Brew said it now seems “unrealistic” that an Iranian fee structure—or a so-called “voluntary” payment scheme—can be avoided, even though tolls violate international maritime law. “The Iranians felt that they won. They came out of the war [in June] believing they were entitled to a more permanent role in managing the Strait of Hormuz,” Brew said. “They see the war as having justified their view that the strait essentially belongs to them.” The 60-day memorandum of understanding treaty never properly addressed control of the strait, and now it’s undone. “The Iranians have illustrated time and again that if you hit them, it only strengthens their resolve to maintain their position and avoid giving any concessions,” Brew added. The average U.S. price for a gallon of regular unleaded has climbed back to $4 a gallon again this weekend. During the war, the U.S. has exported record volumes of oil and refined fuel, helping push refining margins to all-time highs while keeping prices at the pump inflated. Refinery outages—voluntary or not—in the Middle East, China, and Russia are keeping fuel prices higher worldwide. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November and Trumply keep aware of inflation and gasoline costs, analysts argued that U.S. acquiescence to Iran over Hormuz becomes more likely. Iranian fees on tankers may be reduced to a secondary concern. “Any question about tolling’s impact on [oil] volumes is downstream of a more basic one—whether the strait is reliably open at all,” said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence for Vortexa. If the U.S. cedes control to Iran, at least the strait would be open, even if traffic may never fully normalize. With Iran’s Gulf neighbors hesitant to pay fees, they will keep diverting as many barrels via pipelines as possible while rapidly building new pipelines and ports to render Hormuz less relevant long term. Spurred by the war, the UAE is doubling the size of its West-East pipeline and planning a new Fujairah port to bypass Hormuz and move more oil directly into the Gulf of Oman. Iraq is building the Basra-Haditha Pipeline, creating pathways to oil hubs in Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. Saudi Arabia has rapidly expanded pipeline shipments to export oil through the Red Sea, but new attacks from the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen could threaten the alternate route. Iran may win the battle but lose influence long term, Pickering said. Its leverage is strongest right now and should diminish over time. “What we’re going to wind up with in five years is multiple export routes out of the Middle East.” Instead of fighting over Hormuz routes closer to Iran or Oman, “Those would just be two of maybe six ways to get oil out of the Middle East.” Precarious petroleum supplies The Trump administration clearly believed it—and Israel—could strike Iran hard and fast, forcing regime change or bending Iran to Trump’s will, similar to the Venezuelan operation in January that emboldened the president, said Brew. The administration failed to heed warnings that Iran was stronger militarily, more radicalized, and held more strategic and geographic influence. Now, U.S. commercial energy stockpiles and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) are rapidly being depleted, and only China—which has slashed its crude imports by nearly 5 million barrels a day—has kept prices from spiraling out of control. But China can only keep that up for so long before it starts to buying more barrels. “We’re not in crisis territory [yet], but there’s less breathing room at a time of intense global uncertainty,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at the TradeStation brokerage firm. “Oil remains a top risk…given its importance in inflation and, ultimately, monetary policy. The SPR draws can’t continue forever.” Iran has clearly demonstrated the heightened value of the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s why it’s so insistent on maintaining control at any cost militarily and economically to wait out the U.S, Pickering said. “We’ve seen how expensive it is to shut everything off. The irony is before all this started that value was there for free for all the participants. “So, are you going to wind up worse off? Yes.” And the U.S. has very limited options pressing forward, Brew said.“Trump can escalate and potentially widen the conflict to one that causes even more damage and pushes oil prices even higher.” Or he can try to outlast Iran, a middle path that seems unlikely to succeed. Or he cedes the strait to Iran to reopen it. Because emergency oil stockpiles aren’t depleted—yet—and the price per barrel remains below $100, Brew expects Trump to attempt an escalation that’s now playing out before he feels he’s truly running out of options in a month or two. “My sense is that things are going to get worse before they get better,” Brew said. The U.S. is intensifying its attacks, and Iran is targeting more energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors, including potentially the Saudi’s Red Sea traffic, he added. Even another peace deal is unlikely to last, he said. “It’s not going to be fully resolved. We’re likely to see continued flareups, continued rounds of skirmishing and hostilities. I don’t expect anything more durable than an interim deal that allows traffic to resume somewhat.” In the meantime, “We’re going to see more fireworks in the next two or three weeks before we see any kind of progress towards de-escalation or accommodation.”

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Jordan BlumBy Jordan Blum
Nearly five months into the war in Iran, the conflict has entered a “second round” as bombs fly throughout the Middle East after a temporary truce collapsed. Iran is again threatening passage through the now-infamous Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. has reinstated a naval blockad…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US strikes Iran for 10th consecutive night as Tehran strikes tanker in the Strait of Hormuz

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina

How the US-Iran conflict has thrown India’s Chabahar plans into doubt

○ 1 source

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran

Divya A

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire

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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

Location: Iran

Sam Meredith

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy

How Houthi Red Sea blockade tightens Iran's grip on energy supplies

○ 1 source

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.

Reuters