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strikeApr 29, 2026

US in tough spot as it tries to avoid deal that highlights its failures in Iran

Summary

Donald Trump is learning first-hand about the perils of mission creep. The US-Israel war in Iran has just passed its eighth week – twice as long as the president predicted it would take when US warplanes launched their joint attack with Israeli forces to decapitate the Iranian leadership and paralyse its military. The military attacks were successful. The predictions about the political cause-and-effect to follow were not. Iran has survived the initial strikes and remains defiant, closing the strait of Hormuz in a move that has blocked off a fifth of the global oil trade. The US has responded with its own blockade to lock in Iranian oil, inflicting losses of an estimated $500m daily on Tehran and threatening the country’s long-term energy production – but negotiations have stalled and it is not clear if the White House is willing to withstand the pain of a sustained economic war or the risk of a military operation to open the strait. “This has gone from being a war of choice to a war of necessity,” said Aaron David Miller, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment and a former US diplomat and Middle East negotiator. The war had transformed from a conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel to a “global economic crisis which shows no signs of abating”. Just this week, petrol prices in the US approached a four-year high, and they are expected to continue to rise before a crucial midterm election that could allow the Democrats to retake congress. “The status quo is not tolerable … there has to be a fix to it,” Miller said. “It strikes me that the administration is in a very tough spot.” But the solution remains elusive. One option would be to negotiate a temporary reopening of the strait of Hormuz but to delay nuclear talks on the fate of the more than 400kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) – as well as the country’s right to enrich uranium in the future. But the New York Times has reported that Trump is “unsatisfied” with Iran’s most recent proposals to open the strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic: Tehran has indicated it is unwilling to negotiate on its nuclear programme and is ready to reopen the waterway only if it is paid for transit – a concession that could set an unwelcome precedent at key conduits for shipping freight around the world. Trump has remained bullish in public, claiming on social media on Tuesday that Iran admitted to being in a “state of collapse” and that “they want us to ‘Open the Hormuz Strait,’ as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!).” But previous rounds of negotiations have ended inconclusively, and the latest attempts to dispatch his Middle East envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were cut off abruptly by the president. At heart, the Trump administration wants to avoid signing a deal that would lay bare the fact that the White House has fallen short of its goals in Iran – a measure that could be made clear by comparisons to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an Obama-era deal signed in 2015 that limited but did not eliminate Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018. Former negotiators of the JCPOA have told the Guardian that Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz, a line it was not previously willing to cross, had fundamentally altered the negotiations: Iran now has a weapon that one said was far more convenient than a nuclear weapon itself. Trump’s other options are equally unsavoury. One is to escalate with a mission to open the strait militarily. That would probably be far more difficult than the escort operations during the tanker war of the mid-1980s, when US warships convoyed with neutral shipping to run a gauntlet of Iranian and Iraqi attacks that killed more than 440 sailors, as well as dozens of US service members, and damaged 400 ships. Dennis Blair, a former head of US Pacific Command and director of national intelligence, argued in a recent article that opening the strait would be possible by placing detachments of sailors onboard an initial convoy of about 20 oil tankers, then deploying six to 10 destroyers to intercept small boats, missiles and drones, other ships and submarines to disable mines and then jets, attack helicopters, and raiding parties to counterattack against IRGC firing positions. A “small number of the weapons fired by IRGC forces would penetrate the layered convoy defenses, inflicting damage and some casualties,” he wrote. “But the navy combatants are tough, with good damage-control capabilities, and many of the tankers are huge, up to four times the size of an aircraft carrier. They do not sink from a few missiles, drones, and mines.” The other, even less palatable option is a full assault on Iran’s civilian infrastructure or an invasion force, but there are no guarantees that would coerce the government into bending to Trump’s will. The vacuum of leadership in Iran is a problem largely of the US and Israel’s own making. The targeted strikes that killed Ali Khamenei – and injured his son, the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei – removed a leader who was capable of uniting the clerical, political and military circles, including the IRGC. In a recent Truth Social post, Trump admitted as much, saying: “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know!” “The infighting is between the ‘Hardliners,’ who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the ‘Moderates,’ who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY!” But Trump has his own advisers taking a hard line on Iran – and he has also shown that he is ready to follow Benjamin Netanyahu’s lead on Iran policy. As they push increasingly for Iran to agree to no nuclear enrichment and to open the strait of Hormuz, the Iranian position appears to be hardening as well. And voices of criticism on the left and right are growing louder, especially as the war exacerbates the US’s affordability crisis just months before the midterms. “This is the outcome that Trump and Netanyahu have created,” said Matt Duss, the executive vice-president at the Center for International Policy and a former foreign policy adviser to Bernie Sanders. “Many of us warned about exactly this, but these people have this kind of weird, completely unjustified religious belief in the capacity of military force to produce magical outcomes. And once again, they’ve been shown to be completely full of crap.”

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  • Andrew RothBy Andrew Roth

    Donald Trump is learning first-hand about the perils of mission creep. The US-Israel war in Iran has just passed its eighth week – twice as long as the president predicted it would take when US warplanes launched their joint attack with Israeli forces to decapitate the Iranian le

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- Two US peace negotiators will visit Ukraine on Sunday after visiting Moscow, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday. Ukraine’s president said Kyiv would guarantee the safety of Russian airspace during the visit of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow, after which they are expected to travel on to Kyiv.

He called on Russia to also halt its air attacks on Ukraine during the negotiators’ visit. Donald Trump, the US president, said: “We have an idea for peace … I sent Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, two great negotiators.” The New York Times reported that Washington has asked both sides for a ceasefire during the envoys’ visit.

Kushner is Trump’s son-in-law and Witkoff deals in real estate. - The headquarters of Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency took a direct hit from a Russian drone on Friday, Amy Hawkins reports from Kyiv. Zelenskyy said he had instructed the SBU to deliver an “appropriate, tangible response” to the strike, while the foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, described it as a “major escalation”.

Zelenskyy said: “The drone was aimed directly at the office of the head of the security service in that building.” At least nine people were injured in Friday’s strike, according to Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko. - Air Tanzania said it was suspending flights from Dar es Salaam to Moscow from Friday, becoming the first airline to do so after Zelenskyy warned this week that the skies over Russia were unsafe because of Ukraine’s retaliatory drone attacks.

The airline said on Facebook that it took the step after “a routine risk assessment of the operating environment along the route”. Vladimir Putin on Thursday falsely claimed that Ukraine was threatening to attack civilian aircraft. Moscow has protested to the UN’s aviation agency after Ukraine asked it to have member countries keep their airlines out of Russian airspace.

“Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation as such – not a single civilian aircraft,” Zelenskyy said during the week. “There will simply be drones in Russia’s skies on a scale that has to be taken into account.” - A “massive” overnight Russian attack on the Odesa region killed one person and injured at least five others, including a child, regional head Oleh Kiper said on Friday.

The attacks damaged multiple residential buildings, including two multistorey blocks. Strikes elsewhere in Ukraine killed two police officers in Dnipro, officials said, while a drone attack in Kyiv wounded three people after hitting a residential building.

- In Russia, a large-scale Ukrainian drone strike hit the Black Sea resort city of Sochi and the nearby district of Sirius, regional officials said on Friday. They said the attack sparked a blaze at an oil depot. Russian media outlets reported two oil depots were hit, with one fire in Sochi and another in Sirius.

- Finnish authorities said they were investigating how a Russian-made drone ended up on the shore in the Pellinge archipelago east of Helsinki. Finland’s border guard said it appeared to be a Geoscan 701 drone, manufactured by a Russian company. “The device model in question is used by both state and civilian operators, and it is not possible at this stage to determine its intended use or identify the country or entity operating it.

” - A World Health Organization warehouse storing humanitarian medical supplies was struck during an air attack on the Kyiv region, continuing what the WHO said was a pattern of such attacks across Ukraine. In 2026, at least 20 attacks have affected depots storing humanitarian goods including healthcare supplies, said a WHO spokesperson in Geneva.

- A vice-president in the far-right party of French presidential contender Marine Le Pen has sparked a furore by saying France would “turn off the tap” to Ukraine if National Rally (RN) came to power. Louis Aliot claimed the RN “condemned the Russian aggression” but said the war had “weakened Europe”.

One of Le Pen’s leading rivals in the elections, centre-right politician Edouard Philippe, who served as Macron’s first prime minister, retorted that “turning off the tap to Ukraine is serving Russia”. “Weakening Ukraine, as Marine Le Pen wishes, is threatening the security of Europe and France.

I will do everything to prevent it.” Le Pen herself entered the fray, claiming that her party was pushing for a “diplomatic resolution of this abominable war”. - The head of Memorial, Russia’s Nobel peace prize-winning rights group, has told AFP she fears a fresh crackdown after September’s legislative elections, with more people arrested and sent to fight in Ukraine.

Elena Zhemkova also vowed to keep up the fight for human rights in Russia, despite her group being declared illegal and herself forced into exile. “Unfortunately, I think that now everything is getting worse, but not so fast,” the 65-year-old said. “But after the elections, there will be a very sharp deterioration.

” Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy calls air truce as Kushner and Witkoff head for Kyiv via Moscow Direct hit on SBU headquarters in Kyiv targeted intelligence chief; airline suspends Moscow flights after Zelenskyy warning.

Location: Kyiv
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Speaking to reporters at the Oval Office, Trump defended the months-long US military campaign against the Islamic Republic, saying its primary objective was to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. "We're in five months now. And you know what we did in five months?

They're not going to have a nuclear weapon; that's what we did," Trump said. Also read: Trump calls Iran conflict 'small potatoes' and defends Vance's position that it's not a 'war' "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon because if they did, you probably wouldn't be standing here very long," he added.

Trump then warned that Pickaxe Mountain could be targeted if the US detects activity there. "We may hit Pickaxe very soon because if there was anything going on with Pickaxe," Trump said, adding that US intelligence was closely monitoring activity at the site.

"We know everybody that's moving at Pickaxe; we know everybody that's moving everywhere all over Iran. And if anything goes bad, we hit them; we hit them hard," Trump said. Pickaxe Mountain is located near Iran's heavily damaged Natanz uranium-enrichment facility and is described as a heavily fortified underground complex containing two deeply buried tunnel systems.

The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported that Israeli intelligence believes Iran has relocated thousands of centrifuges to the deeply buried facility. The underground construction of the site is believed to make it substantially more resistant to conventional aerial bombardment, making any potential US decision to strike it a significant escalation in the campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

Trump also argued that US military intervention had prevented a wider regional conflict, saying that without American action, Israel and the broader Middle East would have faced a potentially more serious threat. "If we didn't go in there, you wouldn't have Israel right now, you wouldn't have the Middle East, and they probably would go at European cities and our cities next," Trump said.

"But we stopped them from having a nuclear weapon in five months," he added. The remarks came days after the US Central Command said American forces had completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets. According to CENTCOM, the operations targeted facilities associated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps last week, including air-defence installations, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites.

CENTCOM said the strikes followed what it described as recent "attempted attacks" by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against US service members. Trump also spoke about the recent US strikes on Iranian radar systems, claiming American forces had destroyed sophisticated radar installations on two occasions.

"There had been no shooting for days before the hit that we gave them the other night to wipe out the radar they had," Trump said. "They had very sophisticated radar - they brought in radar because we knocked it out once, and now we knocked it out twice.

Now we don't notice any activity," he added. Trump suggested Iran had become reluctant to continue deploying radar systems because of repeated US attacks. "I think they're tired of putting it in and getting blown up," he said. Iran had strongly condemned the latest American strikes, accusing Washington of violating Iranian sovereignty and targeting non-military infrastructure and civilian sites across several provinces.

Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Iranian armed forces had responded with what it described as "crushing defensive strikes" against US military bases in West Asia that Tehran said served as the origin, support and staging points for American attacks.

Location: Natanz
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‘Small potatoes’: US President Trump downplays war on Iran The president’s remarks could signal a new strategy towards the conflict, focused on minimising its impact. As the United States and Israel’s war on Iran enters its seventh month with no clear end in sight, President Donald Trump has become the latest US official to downplay the conflict.

On Friday, Trump said the conflict, which has resulted in the deaths of 18 US service members and a spike in global energy prices, is “small potatoes”. Recommended Storieslist of 3 items - list 1 of 3How much oil is going through Hormuz? Why data doesn’t match US claims - list 2 of 3Iran war: Why US midterms could be a pivotal moment - list 3 of 3‘Things happen’: How Vance’s comment on Iran wedding strike fits US pattern “It’s not a big thing,” Trump said, comparing strikes on Iran with other US military campaigns, including the January 3 operation to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

“We did Venezuela, and we did this. In Venezuela, we lost nobody. In this, we lost 18 people.” His remarks came at an Oval Office signing event, where reporters asked him to weigh in on remarks from Vice President JD Vance. A day earlier, at a White House news briefing, Vance appeared to suggest the conflict had cooled, despite a recent exchange of intense fire between US and Iranian forces.

“I wouldn’t call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting,” Vance said, arguing that major combat operations only lasted six weeks. He then added, “I recognise there have been places where this has flared up.” Trump on Friday told reporters there was “a lot of truth” to what Vance said.

He opted to brand the fighting as a “military conflict”. “We do intermittent strikes,” Trump said, adding: “We’re not fighting right now. There’s no fighting. We’re taking out a lot of oil. We control the Hormuz Strait. We control it very strongly.” Since the war began on February 28, Trump has used various phrases to avoid calling the conflict a war.

In the past, he has called the fighting with Iran a “little skirmish”, a “little detour” and a “little excursion, a couple of weeks, few weeks of excursion”. “It’s an excursion that will keep us out of a war,” Trump said in March. Experts say such terminology is likely strategic.

The Trump administration has faced pushback for not seeking congressional approval before launching its strikes on Iran. The US Constitution grants Congress the exclusive power to declare war, though successive presidencies have taken unilateral military actions without the legislature’s approval.

Legal scholars have repeatedly questioned the legality of those manoeuvres. In June, both chambers of Congress passed a war powers resolution, calling on Trump to either stop his military campaign against Iran or seek congressional authorisation for it.

The resolution was largely symbolic, though it did signal growing bipartisan opposition to Trump’s war on Iran. As the conflict enters its seventh month, it remains widely unpopular in the US. A poll released on Monday by the Reuters news agency and the research firm Ipsos found that nearly six in 10 US adults disapproved of the military strikes on Iran.

As the midterm elections approach in November, and peace talks remain deadlocked, the president’s remarks appear designed to minimise the conflict’s impact across the world. The war has led to attacks across the Middle East, and fuel prices remain high.

In the US, the American Automobile Association (AAA) says the average fuel price is $4.15 per gallon (3.8 litres), up nearly a dollar from last year. The Trump administration, however, has long argued the war and its effects would be short-term. It has also signalled that it intends to double down on its economic pressure campaign against Iran, which has long faced US sanctions.

In August, Trump pledged on Truth Social to pursue the “MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY”. This week, his administration announced new sanctions aimed at cutting off the country’s access to the international financial system.

On Friday, Trump also did not rule out further attacks, suggesting the US may “very soon” strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a military site near the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Natanz was bombed in June 2025 and again during the current war. A recent exchange of strikes this month resulted in Iran firing on US military bases across the Middle East.

The US, meanwhile, was accused by the Iranian government of bombing a wedding celebration in the coastal city of Sirik, killing at least four people. While the future of the conflict is uncertain, Trump said he was pleased with its progress. “I don’t think it matters what you call it,” Trump said.

“What matters is you’ve had tremendous success.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
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Following the resumption of US strikes on Iranian targets in early September, President Trump characterized the six-month-old confrontation as "small potatoes," noting that 18 US service members have been killed since operations began in February. While Trump asserted that US forces have significantly secured the Strait of Hormuz and that current attacks are intermittent, Central Command reported recent strikes on Iranian air-defense and maritime assets.

Location: Iran