strikeMay 19, 2026

US-Iran war: From Russia to Middle East - how India is managing to secure its crude oil supplies amid disruptions

Summary

Missiles, mines, attacks on ships, US blockade, Iran’s closure - the Strait of Hormuz has de facto been closed since the start of the Middle East conflict since late February. Several weeks later, India - an economy dependent on the world for 90% of its crude needs - has managed its oil supply situation better than most expected. With no big strategic petroleum reserves to boast of compared to economies like the US, China, and Japan, India has made use of its crude diversification strategy and strong ties with Russia to tide over one of its worst crude oil supply shocks in several years. Which is not to say that all is well when it comes to its energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for one-fifth of the world’s crude oil trade. But it is equally important for India’s LPG and LNG supplies, which have been hit by the supply crunch. Also Read | PM Modi’s UAE visit: How India will benefit from agreements on strategic petroleum reserves, LPG - explained Yet in all of this, crude availability is resilient. According to the government, India has around 60 days of petroleum supplies in various forms including strategic reserves. But if 20% of the world’s crude supply remains disrupted over 2.5 months of the war, where is India getting its oil from? India’s Crude Procurement Strategy According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler, India’s crude import strategy has shifted significantly since March 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened Middle Eastern flows and increased freight and logistical risks. At the same time, Indian refiners have aggressively diversified toward the Atlantic Basin and non-Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels, increasing purchases from the US, Brazil, West Africa, and Venezuela to offset weaker Iraqi and Gulf flows. “The shift has not been a direct replacement of Middle Eastern barrels from a single source, but rather a broader re-optimisation of the crude slate based on availability, refinery compatibility, freight economics, and sanctions exposure. Refiners have remained more aggressive buyers of Russian and opportunistic Atlantic Basin barrels, along with bypassed flow of Saudi and UAE grades where available,” Ritolia tells TOI. As a result, India has increasingly relied on Russian and Atlantic Basin supply to reduce dependence on direct Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels while maintaining refinery throughput and export economics. Russian oil forms backbone of oil supply Russia has dominated India’s crude imports since the war with Ukraine in 2022. The Donald Trump administration's sanctions dented supplies from December 2025 to February 2026, but Russian crude still remained the highest component of India’s crude import basket. Come March 2026, with the US-Iran war, Russian oil flows to India reached levels last seen a few years ago when the latter was bagging crude at huge discounts. This time, however, Russian crude is being bought at a premium as global crude oil prices remain high. The surge in volumes has been helped by the Trump administration's decision to temporarily waive sanctions on Russian crude at sea to stabilise global crude oil prices. The waiver, first granted in March has been revised twice since. India on its part has maintained that its decision to buy crude oil is governed by energy security needs and economics of oil - waiver or no waiver. However, a waiver undeniably makes it more economically viable to bag Russian crude from all oil majors including Rosneft and Lukoil which form part of the sanctions list. And hence, in the face of Strait of Hormuz closure, Russian crude oil’s dominance has only increased. According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler, Russian crude has remained the backbone of India’s import slate, with flows recovering back toward ~1.9–2.0 Mbd in March after easing earlier in the year. May import is around 1.9 mbd till date with overall expected to be around 1.8-1.9 mbd. Estimates based on Kpler data show that Russia has supplied over 140 million barrels of crude to India since the start of the US-Iran war. Critically, Russian crude-via Baltic, Black Sea, or Pacific routes, remains fully outside Hormuz risk. Middle East supplies through alternative routes With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut amid the West Asia conflict, India’s crude imports in April fell to around 4.4 mbpd (from approximately 5.2 mbpd), as nearly 50% of its supplies (around 2.5 mbpd) normally transit the chokepoint. Iraqi imports dropped to nearly zero and Gulf flows were sharply curtailed, says Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil & Gas, Grant Thornton Bharat. “In response to this, Indian refiners pivoted to a diversified mix, led by Russia ( around 30–37% or 1.5–1.7 mbpd), alongside Saudi Arabia (which was 0.65–0.70 mbpd) and the UAE (0.60–0.62 mbpd), with additional barrels coming in from Venezuela, Brazil, and minimal Iranian cargoes,” he explains. But if Hormuz is closed, through which route are the supplies from Middle East countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia reaching India? “Middle East supplies are being rerouted through Saudi’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea) and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, together offering significant bypass capacity, enabling flows via Yanbu to India and Fujairah to India while non-Gulf crude continues on open-ocean routes,” Mitra explains. “However, these re-routings add around 4-10 days via the Red Sea route and other longer global diversions. These increase freight costs, even as India sustains supply through diversification,” he adds. The return of Venezuela in the mix Venezuelan crude has also made a notable return to India in recent months, and this has helped partially offset the decline in Gulf-linked supply. India had stopped buying crude from Venezuela after US sanctions. However, with the Trump administration's moves in Venezuela, it is now back in India’s import basket. Venezuelan crude imports into India have risen sharply in recent months, reaching the highest levels seen in several years. In fact, as is evident from the chart above, despite supplying oil to India only in April and May so far, Venezuela has made its way into the top 5 crude oil suppliers for India since the US-Iran war began. “The increase has been driven by the opening of the oil sector in Venezuela, more availability, favorable pricing, and refiners seeking heavier replacement barrels amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Venezuelan grades have become particularly attractive for complex Indian refiners as they help offset the growing share of lighter crude in the import slate while supporting secondary unit utilization and middle distillate yields,” says Sumit Ritolia. Global supply crunch: India’s crude imports decline But even as it maintains adequate crude oil stocks in an uncertain global environment, India’s overall crude imports have declined in recent months. According to Kpler data, they are running roughly 700–800 kbd below the typical import levels as tighter global crude availability and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions have constrained flows into Asia. “While refiners have diversified aggressively toward Russian, Venezuelan, US, and Atlantic Basin barrels, the market remains structurally tight and replacement volumes are not fully offsetting lost Middle Eastern availability,” Kpler’s Ritolia cautions. Looking ahead, the Kpler expert sees no clear visibility yet on a full normalisation of Strait of Hormuz flows. “India’s crude import mix is likely to remain broadly similar to current patterns. Russian barrels are expected to remain the backbone of the import slate, supplemented by higher Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan crude intake as refiners continue prioritising supply security, refinery optimisation, and freight economics over traditional sourcing patterns,” he concludes. Even as it looks to secure supplies amid global disruptions, India is also indirectly looking to curb demand through petrol and diesel price hikes. While helping oil marketing companies partially recover losses with crude prices above $100, the recent petrol and diesel price hikes also ends up discouraging unnecessary consumption, and hence controlling demand. Petrol and diesel prices have recently been hiked by Rs 3.90 per litre after four years of no revision. The government has also imposed a windfall gains tax to discourage refiners from exporting petrol and diesel products to secure supply for domestic needs. Also Read | Petrol, diesel price hikes: How India’s fuel price rise compares to US, China, Pakistan, UAE & other economies

Perspectives

Iranian Official

In defense of its sovereignty against US-led foreign aggression and an illegal blockade imposed since late February, Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz to counter threats including attacks on shipping and regional provocations. This act of resistance has disrupted global crude flows, compelling importers like India to rely on diversified supplies and ties with non-hegemonic partners to mitigate the impacts of external interference.

Israeli

Iran's proxy militias and naval forces have de facto sealed the Strait of Hormuz through missile strikes, mining, and shipping attacks, creating an existential energy chokehold that directly threatens Israel's survival and regional stability. This calculated escalation, backed by Tehran's broader axis of resistance, forces defensive necessities including preemptive measures to prevent wider strangulation of global crude flows. India's resilient diversification away from these Iranian-controlled routes only underscores the urgency of neutralizing such proxy-enabled threats before they trigger cascading crises.

Neutral

Reports indicate that shipping disruptions, including missile and mine activity, have affected the Strait of Hormuz since late February amid the Middle East conflict. India, which imports about 90% of its crude oil, has maintained supplies through import diversification and Russian purchases, according to government statements citing roughly 60 days of petroleum reserves in various forms. The strait also handles a portion of India’s LPG and LNG imports, which have faced constraints, while its crude sourcing has shifted since March 2026.

Western

Western and allied naval forces have executed precision operations to neutralize Iranian and proxy threats in the Strait of Hormuz, enforcing a de facto closure since late February to secure freedom of navigation and counter adversarial mining and missile activity. Despite these disruptions to 20% of global crude flows, India has sustained resilient imports through diversified sourcing and expanded Russian procurement, maintaining approximately 60 days of strategic reserves.

Pro-Peace

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Middle East conflict has triggered a humanitarian crisis, with civilian casualties mounting from missile strikes, mining, and blockades that also sever energy lifelines for vulnerable populations in India and beyond, driving up costs for LPG and fuel essential to daily survival. India's scramble for alternative crude supplies highlights the war's ripple effects on global civilians already strained by shortages, rather than any sustainable victory. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate and secure safe passage remain the only path to averting further loss of life and economic despair.

Global South

India has leveraged its sovereign non-aligned partnerships, notably deepening crude imports from Russia, to weather the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid US-led blockades and regional escalation that disproportionately burdens Global South economies reliant on imported energy. This pragmatic diversification exposes the limits of Western-dominated supply chains and the failure of multilateral institutions to prevent neo-colonial disruptions to critical trade routes affecting 20% of global oil flows. While India's 60-day reserves and LPG/LNG strains underscore ongoing vulnerabilities, its approach prioritizes autonomy over alignment with powers fueling the conflict.

Actors involved

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Sources

Smriti JainBy Smriti Jain
Missiles, mines, attacks on ships, US blockade, Iran’s closure - the Strait of Hormuz has de facto been closed since the start of the Middle East conflict since late February. Several weeks later, India - an economy dependent on the world for 90% of its crude needs - has managed …

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press