Summary

Iran can economically survive the US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz for at least three to four more months, four people familiar with a confidential CIA analysis told The Washington Post on Thursday. “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” one US official told the Post. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.” Iran is adapting to the blockade by various methods, one official said. Some of its strategies include storing its oil on tanker ships that would otherwise be empty and reducing production in its oil fields. Iran's economy is "nowhere near as dire as some have claimed,” the official said. Another strategy Iran may be employing is to transport some of its oil overland, one official said. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” the official explained, which could provide it with an economic buffer. Another senior US intelligence official, on the other hand, said that the blockade is inflicting "real, compounding damage - severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse." "Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding," the official added. “What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering - starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, told the Post that Iran is losing half a billion dollars per day thanks to the US blockade. "The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable," she stated, "and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.” Iran maintains ballistic missile capabilities Sources also told the Post that the CIA analysis found that Iran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities. One US official stated that, since the start of the war, the Iranian regime has been able to recover underground storage facilities, repair damaged missiles, and assemble some new missiles. All in all, the official said, Iran retains around 75% of its pre-war mobile launcher inventory and 70% of its missile stockpile. The larger issue regarding Iranian weapons and the Strait of Hormuz, however, is their drone production capabilities. According to Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, “All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance.” These drones can be manufactured in small, easily concealed facilities, a US official informed the Post. Citrinowicz also said that the main problem is that Iran doesn't think it needs to capitulate, even if the blockade persists for several months.