ConflictClarifier

متتبع أزمة إيران-الخليج 2026
CC
Events Archive
strikeMar 25, 2026

Why Iran is holding back the axis of resistance in the war with the US and Israel

Summary

The silent axis: Why Iran isn’t using its allies US aggression against Iran has persisted for over three weeks now. Throughout this time, Tehran has acted largely on its own, without mobilizing allied forces. This raises a crucial question: what’s going on with the so-called Axis of Resistance – the extensive network of Iranian allies that took decades and billions of dollars to establish? Formally, the Axis of Resistance includes groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis (Ansar Allah movement) in Yemen, and various Shiite armed factions in Iraq, such as the Popular Mobilization Forces and Kata’ib Hezbollah. The US and Israel traditionally view these groups as Iran’s proxy tools that enable it to exert asymmetric influence in the region. The West’s portrayal of Hamas as an Iranian proxy, however, is fundamentally misleading. Despite periods of tactical alignment and shared interests, Hamas has historically maintained decision-making autonomy and has often found itself at odds with Tehran – most notably during the Syrian conflict, when their positions diverged significantly, even leading to direct confrontations. In short, the relationship between Hamas and Iran is more of a situational partnership than an alliance. Apparently, Washington operated under the assumption that elements of the Axis of Resistance have been significantly weakened or even neutralized. Indeed, over the past couple of years, Israel has systematically targeted the infrastructure and command structures of these groups in Syria and Lebanon; intelligence operations also sought to undermine their overall operational capabilities in Iraq and their coordination with Iran. However, interpreting these developments as evidence of the destruction of the Axis of Resistance may be premature and superficial. Rather, Iran is deliberately resorting to a strategy of restrained escalation. It seems Iran is avoiding the direct involvement of its allies in the conflict, aiming to localize the confrontation and prevent it from spiraling into a full-scale regional war, which would carry exorbitant costs for all involved. Moreover, the nature of the Axis of Resistance does not imply automatic and synchronized engagement of all its components in every crisis. These actors possess a degree of autonomy and operate based on their national and organizational interests, as well as the prevailing military-political situation. Against this backdrop, a more sensitive question is emerging in Washington and West Jerusalem: what if Iran hasn’t just weathered the storm but has actually adapted to the harsh conditions of escalating tensions? Despite suffering severe losses from the very first days of the conflict – including the elimination of its top political and military leadership, key decision-makers, and significant portions of the command structure within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the armed forces – Iran’s system has shown remarkable institutional resilience. This hardly surprises those familiar with Iranian domestic politics. The mechanisms for personnel rotation, deeply embedded into Iran’s political and military architecture, continue to function effectively, ensuring continuity in governance and command structures. In other words, this is not a personalist regime vulnerable to ‘decapitation’ strikes, but rather a system characterized by high organizational inertia and adaptability. Iran not only maintains its strategic stability but also demonstrates an ability to independently wage war against a significantly superior adversary – specifically, the US and the US-Israel alliance. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy chokepoint, serves not just as a military tool but as a geo-economic pressure point that impacts global markets, increasing the costs of further escalation. The situation compels the US to reluctantly admit Iran’s dominance in this area, whatever Trump may say about it. Additionally, the psychological dynamics of the conflict have shifted. While early on there were indications that Tehran sought de-escalation, it now appears that Iranian leadership has entered ‘conflict mode’ and adapted accordingly. Experts note that Iran perceives its ability to withstand pressure as a factor that expands its room for maneuvering. Whereas US rhetoric includes threats of escalating confrontations – potentially involving ground operations or seizing strategically important targets like Kharg Island – Iran demonstrates composure, believing that the potential for escalation is far from exhausted. In this context, the strategy of ‘deferred engagement’ of allies becomes particularly valuable. According to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal, both the US and Israel are currently trying to avoid actions that might provoke Yemen’s Houthis to directly join the conflict on Iran’s side. These concerns are well-founded: the potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would create additional shocks to global energy logistics, linking the crisis in the Persian Gulf with the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, for its part, is making diplomatic efforts to curb escalation, appealing to previously established agreements with the Houthis regarding non-aggression. However, Houthi representatives signal a continued strategic uncertainty; according to Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the political bureau of the Houthis, coordination with Tehran is ongoing, and the question of military support remains one of timing and feasibility. Just like other elements of the Axis of Resistance, the Houthis strive to avoid the image of being mere proxy actors serving external interests. However, if Iran faces a situation where it can no longer manage alone, it will undoubtedly turn to its allies for support. This illustrates Iran’s ability to mobilize these resources at will – either to exert intense pressure or as a strategic asset in future negotiations. In other words, the current landscape increasingly resembles a multi-layered Persian game of endurance and controlled escalation. Iran demonstrates both a capacity to withstand pressure and an ability to redistribute risks while retaining the key element of uncertainty – the potential to escalate a ‘local’ conflict into a full-blown regional crisis at any moment. This unpredictability has become a significant factor in deterring its adversaries. From a rational and military-political standpoint, Iran’s reluctance to immediately deploy the full range of its capabilities should not be seen as a sign of weakness, but rather as a calculated strategy of managed escalation. In asymmetric conflicts, prematurely revealing all one’s cards eliminates the crucial factor of uncertainty, which itself serves as a deterrent and a means of pressuring the opponent. Most likely, Washington and West Jerusalem assumed that the initial strikes would trigger an impulsive reaction from Tehran, fueled by chaos within its highest echelons and a lack of direction. They expected Iran to instantly mobilize its entire network of allies and proxies. However, in practice, Iran is demonstrating the opposite behavior: a phased and measured application of force while keeping key assets in reserve. Essentially, in this multi-tiered strategy, Tehran simultaneously addresses several objectives: preserving strategic reserves without fully disclosing the potential of its allied actors and its own capabilities. Iran employs geo-economic levers, including control over vital transportation and energy routes. Additionally, it maintains domestic stability by identifying covert networks and minimizing destabilizing factors within the country. At the same time, Tehran engages in diplomatic maneuvers, leaving room for negotiation while gradually raising the stakes and forcing its opponents to act amid growing uncertainty. This approach aligns with the classic logic of strategic patience: the opponent is compelled to react, but remains in the dark about the enemy’s untapped resources. The behavior of Iran’s allies is particularly significant in this regard. Observing Tehran’s resilience sends them a signal that they are dealing not with a weakened actor, but with a center of power capable of enduring pressure and maintaining control. In this context, their potential involvement is postponed until it can be used to achieve maximum impact – either as a decisive factor in the escalation process or as leverage in negotiations. In this context, Iran’s strategy resembles the old Persian game of Nard: this complex table game (an ancestor of backgammon) is characterized by a high degree of variability. At first glance, Tehran’s actions might seem limited or even restrained; however, they are calculated to achieve cumulative impact and exploit the critical vulnerabilities of adversaries. One of their major vulnerabilities is global logistics and energy infrastructure. The potential blockade of other transportation hubs could trigger a systemic shock to the world economy. Moreover, unlike large-scale military confrontations, such measures can inflict considerable damage without necessitating the transition to more destructive scenarios that come at a high human cost. This is why Iran has spent decades building a distributed network of influence and tools of indirect leverage. Under existential pressure, this architecture transforms into a mechanism that ensures strategic depth and flexibility, allowing Iran to vary the intensity of conflict, redistribute risks, and target its opponents not just on the battlefield but also through economic and infrastructural channels. Tehran’s current approach is not an improvisation but a long-term strategy based on the principle that maximum effectiveness is achieved not by a sudden show of force but by applying force in a measured and unpredictable way, targeting the adversary’s most vulnerable points.

Actors involved

USIsraelIranProxy

Sources

  • Farhad IbragimovBy Farhad Ibragimov

    The silent axis: Why Iran isn’t using its allies US aggression against Iran has persisted for over three weeks now. Throughout this time, Tehran has acted largely on its own, without mobilizing allied forces. This raises a crucial question: what’s going on with the so-called Axis

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
1 source

The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem
strikeUnverifiedUSIranChina
1 source

The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on the Turkish bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sirketi, alleging it facilitated the transfer of Iranian oil revenues into cash and gold. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated these measures are part of "Operation Economic Outcast," an initiative launched following more than six months of conflict to pressure Iran.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranEURussiaChinaUkraineHamas
1 source

Rabobank reported that geopolitical developments, including Russian statements regarding potential peace talks in Ukraine and US-Iran hostilities, continue to dominate market sentiment, though analysts noted these claims remain unverified. The bank also cited unconfirmed reports that South Korea may deploy forces to the Strait of Hormuz and that Israel has stated regime change in Tehran is a primary objective, while noting that Ukrainian media reports of an impending northern Russian offensive lack independent verification.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranRussiaUkraine
1 source

The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

Location: Iran