strikeApr 1, 2026

Will Iran war start a nuclear arms race in Middle East?

Summary

Will Iran war start a nuclear arms race in Middle East? There is little doubt that the nuclear threat in the Middle East has risen during the current conflict. During the war, which started in late February when the US and Israel attacked Iran, nuclear sites in both Iran and Israel have been targeted. IAEA informed by Iran of a new strike in the area of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, the third such incident in 10 days. No damage to operating reactor nor any radiation release reported, and condition of plant is normal, Iran says. DG @rafaelmgrossi again expresses deep… pic.twitter.com/cGIUSZJMyV — IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) March 27, 2026 US President Donald Trump has said that thewar on Iran was launched in order to prevent Iran getting a nuclear weapon. But, experts suggest, this may well backfire. READ: Iran was not rebuilding nuclear enrichment, US intelligence finds Possessing nuclear arms is supposed to be a deterrent. The theory is that they prevent your enemies from acting against you. Observers often cite the case of North Korea. It has developed nuclear weapons which, some argue, make the dictatorship untouchable. Ukraine provides an example of the opposite. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up what was then the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US and the UK. The argument now is that, had Ukraine kept those weapons, Russia would not have been able to invade. ‘Nuclear latency’ not enough Iran was considered to be in a state known as “nuclear weapons latency.” Nuclear weapons latency is when a country has all of the tools to produce a nuclear weapon but has yet to do so. READ: US, Israel hit Iran’s nuclear sites as Rubio trails end to war “For years, Iran maintained strategic ambiguity, staying just below the threshold of a bomb to avoid the very strikes that have now occurred,” Rupal Mehta, a professor of political science based in the US wrote in a commentary for the London School of Economics earlier in March. “Tehran’s new leadership faces a grim calculation: while the pursuit of nuclear weapons was dangerous, having an unfinished bomb was the fatal mistake.” This week, Iranian politicians said the country might withdraw from the landmark treaty that is meant to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. The 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or NPT, has 191 member states. The changes in security relationships in the region that the Iran war has brought, could also see other countries wanting a nuclear weapon. “There are a number of factors that will push states in the Gulf closer to nuclear weapons,” confirms Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association. The Gulf states are caught between the hegemonic desires of Iran and Israel and have at least partially lost faith in their security alliances with the US. “Although,” Davenport continues, “it’s unlikely any of the states are going to immediately dash for a bomb. There are significant technical and political hurdles that any state in the region would need to overcome if they wanted to weaponize.” READ: Netanyahu says Iran war goals achieved ‘beyond halfway point’ Gulf state leaders will also be waiting for the conflict to end to see where Iran’s regime and its nuclear program end up, Davenport noted. “But certainly this the conflict is going to drive thinking about the necessity of nuclear weapons for security.” Who wants nukes? Saudi Arabia took the first steps toward possible nuclear latency last year. In the past Saudi Arabian ruler Mohammed bin Salman has said that if Iran produces a nuclear bomb, then Saudi Arabia would need to have one too. After he visited the US in November, bin Salman reportedly returned with an agreement on nuclear cooperation that would allow his country to enrich uranium. Any such agreemend with Saudi Arabia would have to pass through the US Congress first, explains Nour Eid, an independent researcher based in Paris who has published papers on nuclear ambitions in the Middle East for a number of think tanks. In my latest piece for The Stimson Center, I argue that Saudi Arabia’s nuclear trajectory should not be understood as a simple reaction to whether Iran acquires the bomb. https://t.co/NocSQVyG1l — Nour EID (@_Nour_Eid) March 23, 2026 Almost all of the 26 nuclear cooperation agreements the US has, which cover around 155 countries including in Europe, have included what’s known as an “additional protocol” signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA. This gives the IAEA better oversight over a country’s nuclear activities. While it has yet to be officially confirmed, it seems that the 123 agreement will only require a bilateral safeguards agreement between the US and the Saudis, Eid told DW. “It bucks all precedent,” Robert Kelley, a former director at IAEA, told media outlet Bloomberg this week. “The idea the administration is prepared to give Saudi Arabia the ability to do the very things they are bombing Iran for looks hypocritical.” Still, as Eid points out, it will take the Saudis somewhere between 10 and 20 years to develop nuclear power, let alone weapons. There are also other problems such as the lack of a capable workforce. Right now, she believes the Saudis see nuclear projects mostly as a source of domestic energy. The United Arab Emirates already has a nuclear power plant, Barakah. When they entered their agreement with the US back in 2009, they agreed to the additional protocol and to forgo uranium enrichment and reprocessing. READ: UN watchdog says projectile struck Iran nuclear power plant For the UAE, it was always more about the prestige of being the first Arab nation to develop nuclear power rather than about military ambitions, Eid says. “But there is a clause in their agreement, an oral clause that isn’t written into the final text, that says something along the lines of ‘if a neighboring country has a more flexible agreement then they [the UAE] reserve the right to renegotiate their terms’,” she explains. Eid notes that part of the reason for the more relaxed Saudi nuclear cooperation deal in 2025 is likely due to American competition with China and Russia, the main nuclear suppliers globally. Trump promised to revitalize the US nuclear sector and up until now nuclear deals with Russia or China have tended to have less stringent conditions, and interesting financial packages, Eid explains. Other countries in the Middle East that might be in line for nuclear latency include Egypt and Turkey, Davenport of the Arms Control Association said. In cooperation with Russia, Egypt is building a nuclear reactor on the Mediterranean coast. But, observers say, Egypt, which has officially advocated for a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East, is in financial difficulties and unlikely to be able to parlay nuclear power into an arms program. Turkey is currently developing a nuclear energy program with Russia and may soon start cooperating with China too, Eid noted. “But I don’t see why they would put the international community at odds with them just to acquire nuclear weapons,” Eid pointed out. “Their defense industry is developing well and getting a lot of recognition.” Turkey is a member of NATO and unless they were planning to leave that alliance, they also have that defense umbrella, Eid told DW. How to stop nuclear proliferation? It’s also important to look at the bigger picture on non-proliferation, Davenport added. “It’s not in Chinese or Russian interests to allow the non-proliferation regime to collapse completely,” she told DW. “If you zoom out from the Middle East, some of the states that are most likely to weaponize are in China’s backyard — such as South Korea, Japan.” While Russia and China might provide materials and technologies to help make nuclear weapons, and under less stringent rules than the US has had in the past, they wouldn’t actively assist, she argues. “What is more likely is that states in the Gulf could try to exploit the divisions between the US and Europe on one side, and Russia and China on the other, to minimize the consequences of moving to the threshold of nuclear weapons,” Davenport continued. To prevent more nuclear weapons, regional dialogue is the answer, she stresses. “I am under no illusion that, post conflict, regional security dialogue will be easy or straightforward,” Davenport concluded. “But it is the best option to prevent states from deciding that nuclear deterrents are necessary.” /dl

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Cathrin SchaerBy Cathrin Schaer
Will Iran war start a nuclear arms race in Middle East? There is little doubt that the nuclear threat in the Middle East has risen during the current conflict. During the war, which started in late February when the US and Israel attacked Iran, nuclear sites in both Iran and Isra…

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PARIS: The head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday (Jul 21) that renewed fighting in the Mideast increases concerns over energy supplies but that the market still has cushions to absorb the impact. "The escalation in hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the region increases security of supply concerns and uncertainty over the market outlook," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

"For the moment, crude oil markets continue to benefit from several cushioning factors," he added, pointing to increased exports from several countries and Saudi and United Arab Emirates oil reaching markets by alternative routes. However, Saudi Arabia's main alternative route of using a pipeline to load tankers in the Red Sea port of Yanbu is under threat as Iran's Yemeni allies, the Houthis, declared they would blockade Saudi Arabia's ports.

Oil markets have for months feared that the Houthis would return to attacking shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden - as they did during the Gaza war - cutting off yet more crude from global markets. The initial market reaction to the announcement by the Houthis was restrained, however, as Iran indicated that mediation efforts were still underway, calming investor jitters.

"Threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become increasingly important as a route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbate these concerns further," said Birol, referring to the narrow passage between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The IEA, in addition to advising its industrialised nation members, also helps them coordinate the release of their strategic oil reserves in reaction to market disruptions.

Birol noted that ongoing government releases from these reserves have provided considerable relief to markets, and that nations continue to hold ample reserves. However, he warned "there is no room for complacency on oil security" and pointed to a drawdown of available commercial inventories, with low refining activity contributing to a tighter supplies of refined oil products like petrol and diesel than for crude oil.

Birol noted that additional supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States and Canada have offset about 70 per cent of lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz. However, further delays in resuming Gulf exports "will be felt by all LNG importers, including Europe as it looks to refill its gas storage for next winter", he warned.

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US strikes Iran for 10th consecutive night as Tehran strikes tanker in the Strait of Hormuz

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press