ConflictClarifier

2026 Iran-Gulf Crisis Tracker
CC
Events Archive
strikeSep 9, 2026

Attacks without a declaration of war: How can Germany protect against hybrid threats

Summary

Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz and several ministers have already stressed that while Germany is not at war with Russia, it is nonetheless under hybrid attack from Moscow. This includes drone overflights, sabotage and disinformation, as well as a willingness "to act with growing ruthlessness, accepting serious damage to property and even injuries and deaths," as Merz said at a press conference after the attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport. It was the first time the government explicitly blamed Russia for the attempted attack. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there has been frequent talk of hybrid warfare against Kyiv's partner countries, with Germany seen as particularly exposed. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has therefore raised the current threat level from "abstract" to "high". Hybrid attacks are considered hard to detect because it is often unclear who is behind them and whether individual incidents are even connected. There is growing concern about Russian hybrid actions against Germany, but Moscow is not the only state resorting to such methods. According to the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), China, Iran and North Korea are also targeting Germany with hybrid measures. However, "not every cyberattack, act of sabotage or attempt at disinformation is automatically part of a hybrid campaign," security expert Ferdinand Gehringer told Euronews. What matters, he says, is the identifiable link between different measures. This may involve "a common actor, coordinated timing, recurring targets or methods and, above all, a shared strategic objective." One example is the attempted drone strike on Leipzig/Halle airport. A drone fitted with explosives was discovered there in the immediate vicinity of Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft that also transport military equipment for Ukraine. In his press statement, Dobrindt said they assumed that so-called "disposable agents" may have been involved on behalf of a Russian intelligence service. The pattern of the crime, the technology used and intelligence findings also led the federal government to conclude that Russia was behind the attack. This, Gehringer says, is where the so-called overall situation assessment comes in. To judge whether individual incidents are part of the same operation, information from different areas has to be pooled, from the police, intelligence services, the Bundeswehr, cyber defence and the private sector, for example. "Only by examining technical traces, crime patterns, timelines and disinformation narratives together can links be identified," explains Gehringer. Hybrid warfare often takes place below the threshold of open armed conflict. Its aim is to exploit a country's vulnerabilities, erode trust in state institutions and unsettle and destabilise society. But how can a country and its society prepare for and defend themselves against hybrid attacks or even hybrid warfare? Rearming the Bundeswehr alone is no answer to suspected attacks, spying attempts or disinformation. Nor can hybrid attacks in most cases simply be repelled or countered by kinetic means. So how does a state respond to an attack that remains below the threshold of an armed assault? The federal government has stepped up its precautions against hybrid threats since 2022. These include an interdepartmental task force dealing with disinformation and other hybrid threats. There are also procedures that can attribute cyberattacks and foreign information manipulation to a potential originator. At EU level, the so-called "Hybrid Toolbox" provides a mechanism for joint responses. Since this year, there has also been the Joint Centre for Countering Hybrid Threats (GAZ Hybrid). It is intended to bring together information on espionage, sabotage, disinformation and other hybrid threats, so that such activities can be detected early and tackled more effectively. In the case of the attempted drone attack in Leipzig, the federal government responded "resolutely, calmly and proportionately". It announced measures such as the closure of the Russian consulate general in Bonn and the Russian House in Berlin, sanctioning further Russian individuals over hybrid attacks at EU level, tightening entry controls and stepping up pressure on Russia's shadow fleet. According to Gehringer, however, defence starts even before a campaign begins: "More generally, we need to move away from merely reacting and towards a more anticipatory approach. The goal must be to raise the costs for attackers, disrupt their planning paths, uncover networks as early as possible and also blunt the impact of attacks." If, for example, an attack on a substation caused a power cut, households and businesses could bridge the gap with emergency power until the grid operator repaired the damage. In the best case, he says, preparation would eventually be so good that hybrid attacks could be headed off by identifying relevant activities at the planning stage and nipping them in the bud. At the same time, the state and society need to be ready, in terms of communication, for possible attacks. That would not only limit damage but also rob hybrid operations of their intimidatory effect. This can only be achieved through a combination of deterrence, defence and resilience, the security expert told Euronews. According to Gehringer, the public "plays a very important role" here, but is "still being needlessly wrapped in cotton wool." "Yet it is part of the solution," he adds, explaining that disinformation, for example, can never be fully prevented, nor should that be the aim, since an open society must always contend with manipulative information, in his view. "Our goal must therefore be resilience rather than isolation", says Gehringer. Citizens need to be able to assess information critically, the media must operate independently, and the state must communicate "quickly, credibly and transparently", Gehringer explains.

Actors involved

IranEURussiaChinaUkraine

Sources

  • CurrentsAPI

    Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz and several ministers have already stressed that while Germany is not at war with Russia, it is nonetheless under hybrid attack from Moscow. This includes drone overflights, sabotage and disinformation, as well as a willingness "to act with gro…

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
○ 1 source

US strikes five Iranian 'shadow' tankers as fears of all-out war in Middle East rise American forces have hit five Iranian tankers, sinking one, as pressure mounts on the US to end the war on Iran, and Tehran launches a chilling campaign to deploy proxy forces American forces have struck five “shadow network” oil tankers, after Tehran’s troops targeted a US warship in the region, US Central Command has confirmed.

American intelligence believed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is using the secretive tanker trade to continue to fund their military operations. At least four IRGC-linked vessels were hit in the Gulf of Oman, and another close to Kharg Island was also attacked near a major oil terminal.

Tehran claimed revenge attacks were launched at a US base in Jordan, forcing the American military to shoot down missiles and the IRGC also opened fire on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Close-up satellite imagery issued by Central Command showed one Gulf of Oman Iranian ship being hit by US missiles as the conflict plunged into a long-term war, seemingly without end.

It is believed the ship sank. Images revealed today by CentCom were aimed at displaying US military might, amid fears Washington cannot find a route to peace and Tehran refuses to back down. The latest Washington strategy for the worsening conflict is to choke Iran’s ports and economy as the population suffers a plunging economy and poverty.

Tit-for-tat exchanges of missiles have escalated in the past week, more than six months after the US and Israel launched their first assault on Iran on February 28. Jordan shot down 18 of the 20 Iranian missiles, while two of them fell in unpopulated areas, according to the Jordanian Armed Forces said.

The latest worrying escalation happened after Iran targeted a US warship with ballistic missiles, which Centcom claimed it "successfully evaded”. US military chiefs said in a statement: “The US warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters.

No American personnel were harmed.” Tehran’s shadowy IRGC networks were actively gathering supporters among their proxy systems in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iraq to boost the threat towards the US. Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s parliament speaker, wrote in June: “Iran has a hybrid strategy in the current war.

We are not fighting on one front and we are not using one tool.” Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemen analyst at the think tank Crisis Group, said: “The Houthis’ growing prominence during the Gaza war opened up a new horizon in Iraq. Many groups there became eager to support the Houthis, and in return, the Houthis started sharing their military expertise with Iraqi militias.

” This week, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked energy depots and housing in several cities in Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people and further de-stabilising the region. The drone and missile attack caused fires at oil facilities and installations that led to a temporary halt in operations, Saudi Arabia's military and energy ministry said.

In Tehran the IRGC claimed it captured a secretive US “submarine drone” after American forces admitted an unmanned maritime vessel had malfunctioned. American military chiefs say the drone was an older model and was not being used for sensitive operations.

Earlier, Iran celebrated its capture of a £2m American unmanned underwater vessel near the Strait of Hormuz. And the IRGC said it had “trapped one of the most modern, intelligent and unmanned submarines of the terrorist American army at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz”.

The US military is investing heavily in unmanned naval systems, including underwater and surface vessels, as it seeks cheaper ways to monitor vast areas of ocean and gather intelligence. It is believed the captured vessel was a Dive -LD model which can operate for up to 10 days without returning to base and is designed to dive to depths of as much as 19,700 feet.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
○ 1 source

Iran-US war latest: US says submarine drone ‘malfunctioned’ after Tehran celebrates capture of unmanned vessel Iranian rhetoric comes as US sanctions punish its ailing economy The US says a submarine drone “malfunctioned” before it fell into Iranian hands, adding that it was an older model and not being used for sensitive operations.

Iran earlier celebrated its capture of an American unmanned underwater vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian state media publishing footage of the drone. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed to have “trapped one of the most modern, intelligent and unmanned submarines of the terrorist American army at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz”.

It comes as the US military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers – four in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island – in retaliation for repeated missile strikes on a Navy warship. “The US warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters.

No American personnel were harmed”, the US military said. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked several cities in Saudi Arabia, wounding at least 73 people and knocking operations at energy facilities offline, the Saudi-led coalition said on Tuesday in a further sign of the conflict spreading as diplomacy stalls.

The coalition vowed a firm response to the attacks. Recap: IRGC 'captured' US submarine Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday it had captured a US uncrewed submarine at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, offering a rare glimpse into how underwater drones are being used in military operations.

Iranian state media said the vessel was a Dive-LD, a large autonomous underwater vehicle built by California defense firm Anduril. The 19-foot (5.8-metre) submersible can carry out missions including mine countermeasures, seabed mapping, intelligence gathering and the inspection of underwater infrastructure such as cables and pipelines, the company has said.

"We trapped one of the most modern, intelligent and unmanned submarines of the terrorist American army at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. This submersible is equipped with the latest technologies," the Revolutionary Guards Navy said in a statement carried by Iranian state media.

Japan urges Iran to exercise ‘maximum restraint’ in its vessel attacks Japan’s foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi has urged Iran to exercise “maximum restraint” over its continued attacks on vessels during a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday.

Motegi also expressed “deep concern” over renewed exchanges of attacks between the US and Iran and called on Tehran to show “maximum flexibility” to avoid prolonging the standoff with Washington, Mainichi reported. He also reportedly stressed the importance of restoring free and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible, without vessels incurring additional costs.

US issues new Iran-related sanctions targeting airlines The US has imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions on individuals and more than 30 entities, including several airlines. A notice posted on the treasury department’s website lists a number of commercial and private airlines targeted by the sanctions, including Iran’s Ava Airlines, Mehr Airways and Taban Air.

Several foreign cargo service providers have also been sanctioned. “Let this be a warning to anyone doing business with Iran’s remaining airlines, all of which we sanctioned today: You are at risk of being cut off from the global financial system,” US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said.

Anduril confirms loss of US submarine drone vessel Anduril confirmed the loss of one of its vessels after a US submarine drone malfunctioned, but downplayed the significance of the incident. "Dive-LD is an attritable autonomous system, meaning it is designed from the outset to operate in dangerous environments where loss of the vehicle is an expected possibility," a company spokesperson said.

The US military is investing heavily in unmanned naval systems, including underwater and surface vessels, as it seeks cheaper ways to monitor vast areas of ocean, gather intelligence and track adversary ships and submarines without putting sailors at risk.

According to Anduril's website, Dive-LD can operate for up to 10 days without returning to base and is designed to dive to depths of as much as 6,000 metres (19,700 feet). Dive-LD units cost about $2.5 million each, U.S. military news site DefenseScoop reported in 2024.

Iran says it captured US submarine near Strait of Hormuz Iran says it has captured a US Dive-LD unmanned submarine near the Strait of Hormuz. “We trapped one of the most modern, intelligent and unmanned submarines of the terrorist American army at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

This submersible is equipped with the latest technologies,” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said. The Pentagon said the drone had “malfunctioned more than a day ago”. “It was surveying regional waters in support of ongoing operations. The defective drone was an older model that neither collected sensitive data nor carried any classified sonar or radar equipment,” the spokesperson said.

“Dive-LD is an attritable autonomous system, meaning it is designed from the outset to operate in dangerous environments where loss of the vehicle is an expected possibility,” the California defence firm Anduril that makes Dive-LD said. Iran signalling tougher response as US pressure mounts - report Iran is signalling a tougher military response to the US as economic pressure mounts, analysts tell The New York Times.

“How do you regain the momentum? You escalate,” Farzan Sabet, an Iran analyst at the Geneva Graduate Institute, a research group told the outlet. “It’s highly damaging, but at the same time, they hope it raises global oil prices or fully re-closes the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of the regional news website Amwaj.media told the outlet: “All signs point to a make or break moment. I’m not sure the Iranians are going to wait until after the elections to be attacked if diplomacy fails.

” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it attacked 2 US vessels and 8 oil tankers Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on Wednesday that it had attacked two US vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf in response to what they described as a US attack on five Iranian tankers, Iranian state media reported.

The Guard said they had also attacked 10 ships attempting to cross what they described as a “prohibited and unsafe” area of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump reiterates Iran has ‘no chance’ of getting a nuclear weapon Donald Trump has reiterated that Iran has “no chance of getting” a nuclear weapon.

Speaking at an event in Washington, he said: “I will tell you, we’re right now fighting because we have a certain nation that wanted a nuclear weapon.” “They were very close to getting it. And now they have no chance of getting it. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.

” Iran says that it’s not pursuing nuclear weapons, and its program is entirely peaceful. US Centcom releases footage of tanker sinking in Gulf of Oman US Central Command has released footage showing an Iranian tanker sinking in the Gulf of Oman after it was “destroyed by Centcom forces” on Tuesday.

Centcom said the strike was carried out “in response to attempted attacks” on a US navy warship by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranEU
○ 1 source

The British overseas territories of Akrotiri and Dhekelia on the island of Cyprus have generated a buzz online in recent days, after a social media post by a French politician claimed that the UK was "occupying" Cyprus. The X post by French MEP Manon Aubry, of the far-left France Unbowed party, was originally published in February but resurfaced after being reposted and quoted by social media users last week.

Aubry's post contains a video of herself in Akrotiri — known officially as the Sovereign Base Area of Akrotiri — in which she says its presence in Cyprus, as well as that of Dhekelia, shows that part of the country is still "occupied by the British Army".

She adds that the bases are being used to provide intelligence about the Gaza Strip to Israel and that, as NATO bases, they are ultimately under the command of US President Donald Trump. "Stop colonialism!" Aubry says in the text of her X post. In response, social media users attached a community note to the post, explaining that Akrotiri and Dhekelia are covered by the 1960 treaty that Cyprus signed to establish its independence from the UK.

They added that this is unlike the north of the country, which the vast majority of the international community considers to be under Turkish military occupation in an issue known as "the Cyprus problem". Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974, ultimately dividing the island with Turkish forces controlling the north of the island, about 36% of its territory, to this day.

Self-proclaimed "Northern Cyprus" is recognised only by Turkey. The Cube, Euronews' fact-checking team, spoke to experts to break down some of the nuance surrounding the British bases in Cyprus, whether they bear any similarities to the Turkish occupation, and whether Aubry's claims hold any weight.

Simply put, the question about the status of the bases is a complex one, according to scholars. They said that, legally speaking, the UK is not "occupying" Cyprus, because the base areas are recognised under international law, including by Cyprus itself.

"We can look at the definition of occupation, which includes the presence of a military force without a territory's consent," said Peter Clegg, professor of politics and international relations with a specialisation in British Overseas Territories, at the University of the West of England.

"In this case, there is consent," he said. "There is agreement from the Cypriot government that the bases can exist." Clegg pointed to the vast aspects of civilian daily life that are overseen in the base areas by the Cypriot government, such as education and social welfare, and the fact that the government has not challenged the legality of the independence treaty since it was drawn up.

Under the terms of the agreement, the UK promises "not to develop the Sovereign Base Areas for other than military purposes" and "not to set up and administer 'colonies'" there. It also says that Cypriots have full access to the area surrounding the bases, that their rights will be fully protected, and that laws applicable to the Cypriot population who live there "will be as far as possible the same as the laws of the Republic [of Cyprus]".

The importance of consent was also noted by Costas M Constantinou, professor of international relations at the University of Cyprus, although he highlighted that the situation is not so clear-cut. "I wouldn't call it occupation, but rather an ingenious development of colonialism," he told The Cube.

"The main difference from occupation is that Cypriots formally agreed to it when they signed the Treaty of Establishment in 1960, which also established the bases." "But they were basically coerced, as decolonisation of the island was made conditional on accepting the 'sovereign bases'," he added.

"This raises questions about the legality of the bases today." Neophytos Loizides, professor of international conflict analysis at the University of Warwick, said that the Cypriot people were not consulted when Akrotiri and Dhekelia were left behind as part of the independence deal and that the UK, as the colonial power, used its leverage to hold on to the territories.

"The agreement was signed under duress," he said. "Cypriot leaders did not have the same power as the UK, so the UK could impose its will." Responding to Manon Aubry's use of language directly, he said that it's more accurate to call the bases a "colonial remnant" rather than an "occupation", which is an "emotive use of words".

"This is different to the occupation happening in the north of Cyprus," he said. "A Cypriot person is unlikely to say the British are occupiers, but they wouldn't necessarily say they're there legitimately either." For Constantinou, the key word is "ambivalence".

"Greek Cypriots and certainly the Cypriot government don't view the bases as something that is equivalent to the Turkish occupation in the north," he said. "Those Cypriots who live inside the base areas and may still consider it a colonial remnant don't necessarily or always see it negatively, as many economically benefit from working in the bases and some also feel that the British army provides security vis-a-vis the Turkish army, in areas such as the Achna Forest village in the Dhekelia base.

" As for Aubry's claims that the UK was using the bases in Cyprus to assist Israel, Clegg said they were incorrect. "There have been some surveillance flights in and around Gaza, but the UK has made clear, and it's likely true, that the flights were unarmed and were used to help identify the location of the hostages following the 7 October attacks," he said.

He added that there was limited or no information sharing with Israel or the US, but there were humanitarian aid flights from the bases to Gaza. "There's a discussion to be had about how the bases are being used, but I don't think everything being thrown at them is entirely true and fair," he told The Cube.

"It's likely somewhere in between." The UK government insists that the surveillance flights over Gaza were conducted solely for hostage location, that it maintained strict control over the information it gathered and that only data directly related to the whereabouts of any hostages was given to Israel.

However, certain investigative outlets have cast doubt on whether this intelligence sharing extended into broader Israeli military operations, accusing the government of a lack of transparency for refusing to reveal exactly what information was shared and potential complicity in Israel's war.

Akrotiri and Dhekelia made headlines earlier this year when a drone hit the former in March during the wider war between Iran and both Israel and the US. More drones launched in the following days were intercepted. The strikes reignited the debate about the bases' future in Cyprus, which, unlike the UK, is not a NATO member.

Protesters argued that ordinary Cypriots would pay the price if anything bad happened to them, while President Nikos Christodoulides demanded talks with London about the future of the "colonial" military bases. Rather than directly challenging British sovereignty, however, Nicosia has shifted towards a phased, technical approach, proposing joint committees on how both sides can work together and launching high-level diplomatic dialogue.

"From the Cypriot perspective, the return of the territory would be welcome, but they'd also like to see a better functional relationship," Loizides said. "The British bases cannot perpetually put at risk the Cypriot population on the island." "In the future, it may be that the British maintain the bases but under a protection framework, so that Cyprus benefits from it, and the colonial status changes into a more modern security framework," he added, noting that the relationship between both sides has "improved dramatically" in recent decades.

Any such change is unlikely to happen anytime soon, though, according to Clegg, who described the recent comments from Cyprus as "genuine concern, but more rhetorical than trying to bring about real change." The UK briefly considered whether it was beneficial to keep the bases amid the Turkish invasion in the 70s, but pressure from the US pushed London to keep the status quo.

"The bases are British, there's close cooperation with Cyprus, but there's a US interest too; there's a triangular relationship," Clegg said. "This has been at the heart of how they've been administered." A change in status could come as part of a wider peace settlement regarding the Cyprus problem, according to Loizides, explaining that the British bases could factor into the equation as part of a security framework in the region.

"If the Cyprus problem were fixed, there'd be an opportunity to further develop the European defence mechanisms in the Middle East and east Mediterranean," Loizides said. "The entire region could benefit from the British bases; they could provide security to Cyprus and the EU, so there's a basis for a good agreement for the Brits here too.

" The future of the bases came under legal scrutiny after the International Court of Justice handed down an advisory opinion in 2019, in which it said that the UK's detachment of the Chagos Islands from Mauritius during decolonisation in the 1960s violated the right to self-determination and territorial integrity.

Some Cypriot officials and legal experts say that this is similar to how the UK carved out Akrotiri and Dhekelia during Cyprus' transition to independence, although other analysts say the cases are distinct, because while the indigenous population of Chagos was expelled, the British bases in Cyprus were baked into the 1960 treaty, with formal recognition from the new republic.

London has since agreed to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, but the necessary legislation has stalled following pushback from Trump. Nevertheless, in the Cypriot case, the UK has consistently maintained its commitment to and sovereignty over Akrotiri and Dhekelia under the 1960 agreement.

Al Carns, former armed forces minister, told The Telegraph in April that their legal status is "non-negotiable", dismissing any suggestion of transferring control of them. The government of Cyprus did not respond to a request for comment as of the time of publication.

Location: Gaza
strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyChina
○ 1 source

According to a Monday Wall Street Journal report citing data from maritime platform Kpler, Iranian oil exports have declined since a US naval blockade was reinstated in mid-July, with shipments falling from an estimated 90 million barrels to approximately 29 million barrels.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that no Iranian crude cargoes have transited the Strait of Hormuz to China since the blockade began, though he characterized the situation with a "Jaws" graphic alongside data on falling exports and currency values.

Location: Tehran