Summary
Synopsis
The conflict in Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting global oil shipments and market dynamics. While oil availability has seemingly increased, a logistics premium affects shipping costs and insurance. This situation has led to heightened risks, causing delays in transit times and increased tanker requirements. Diesel shortages are also rising, with prices escalating significantly as supply chains are disrupted.
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The ongoing war in Iran has done what was earlier only a possibility on paper, but never implemented-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On 2nd March, when Iran announced its closure, the war suddenly graduated from being a regional conflict to a global crisis.
Over the past seven months, all other war objectives including Iranâs nuclear issue have been put aside and the key point is, how to open the blockade and ensure safe passage of ships across the Hormuz. The sudden breakout of conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea region, close to another crucial choke point, the Bab-al-Mandeb, has only worsened the global energy crisis.
Also read:Iran says US response to its proposal to reopen Hormuz was 'insufficient'
In a pre-28th February scenario, 120-130 ships used to transit the Hormuz, carrying almost 20 million barrels of crude oil per day, which came down to a trickle, often in single digits due to the Iranian and the US naval blockade.
However, in recent weeks, a strange paradox is being experienced in the global energy markets. Despite the double blockade across the Hormuz, recent reports indicate that crude oil exports from the Gulf region (including the oil transported through pipelines in the Red Sea) are reaching pre-war levels.
In September, crude oil exports from the region rose to 22.5 million bpd as per provisional data from shiptracking firm Kpler. These include transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals through pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Yet, the prices of crude oil remain high and are currently trading in the range of US$ 105 per barrel.
Also, the global energy crisis continues despite increased availability of oil as also 400 million barrels from the global strategic reserves (including 100 million barrels of diesel), being made available through International Energy Agency (IEA) to keep the crisis under control.
Why is this happening? If the global energy crisis was about the availability of crude, it is available now, in reasonable quantities. The real energy shock apparently is no longer simply about a supply deficit, but a âlogistics premiumâ imposed on every barrel that transits as also oil being reliably and economically deliverable.
The central question in the energy market is therefore moving from âHow much oil is available?â to a deeper and often deceptive question, âHow much is it costing (and hurting) to move a barrel of crude oil from oil fields to refineries across the globe, costs in terms of time, shipping, insurance, threats of attacks and seizures, crew etc?â. And therefore, the oil crisis due to the war in Iran is not merely an oil-supply or price crisis but a compounding problem due to hidden oil-movement crisis.
A number of independent yet closely interlinked factors are contributing to it, which need to be examined one by one.
To circumvent it, oil traders are resorting to shuttles across the Hormuz transporting crude oil in smaller ships carrying 40,000-50,000 barrels, crossing the Strait in dark with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off. On reaching safer ports in the Oman sea, like Fujairah of the UAE or other holding areas, the oil is transferred to larger tankers. This ship-to-ship transfer however, has a dual cost attached to it.
If smaller ships with 50,000 barrels have to load up a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) ship with an average capacity of 2 million barrels, it requires 40 ships of load. If the average number of ships that are able to escape Iranâs vigil in the dark is 20 per day, it implies that to load up a VLCC, it takes two nights of ships crossing the Hormuz discreetly.
If the loading time of another 24-48 hours is added (especially if the VLCC is not anchored at port), the cost of time just goes up by another significant notch. A barrel that earlier required just a single loading at an oil terminal, has to now undergo multiple loadings.
There are other added costs and risks too. The large number of smaller ships required to load up a VLCC creates a virtual choke point in the sea, leaving very little space for manoeuvre of ships in ports. It also creates a large concentrated target for Iranian missiles to target and disrupt the passage.
Estimates suggest that against an average time of 30 days for a tanker to complete its voyage in Asia, it is now taking 45 days due to increased delay imposed by diversions, waiting, ship-to-ship transfers and security. Simply, it means that the turnaround time has increased by 50 percent, leading to reduced and delayed availability of the ship for a second round of transit and thus the need for more tankers.
Also, the increased instances of ships being hit by Iranian missiles is leading to reduced availability in numbers. In the last two weeks, UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO) has reported (and these are conservative estimates) that 15 vessels have been struck by Iran.
A vessel was struck deep in the Gulf of Oman as well as off the coast of Qatar in the Persian Gulf that resulted in multiple casualties. Satellite imagery also indicated a fire on a Super-tanker DALKHUT off the Fujairah port of UAE on 8th October.
Also read: India shields city gas users as Hormuz crisis threatens South Asia's LNG demand
By doing this, Iran is not only displaying its ability to target ships beyond the Hormuz but is putting at risk the bypass formula of a safe and discreet method of oil, increasing the risk and premium on availability of ships.
Compounding the problem of availability of tankers is the sharp increase in the rates to transport crude from the Middle East to Asia aboard a VLCC which is now US $1.2 million per day, up from US $30,000 a day in January.
As a result, freight costs that once accounted for around 3% of the delivered price of a barrel now represent roughly 27%. Financial Times reported that a US oil trader is buying 15-20 second super-tankers at around US$ 2 billion to take oil from Iraq to refineries in India and China, hoping to make windfall gains from the hugely escalated costs of leasing a super-tanker.
If a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels at US$ 100 is to pay a 10 percent fee to Iran, it would mean a whopping US$ 20 million per VLCC! If even 5 VLCC are loaded per day, it would imply a revenue of US$ 3 Billion per month, almost the same amount that Iran was demanding the US to defreeze as an initial measure of implementing a peace deal.
The insurance costs have risen sharply too. Based on industry estimates as of July 2026, war risk cover for transits through the Strait of Hormuz had increased to 3.5%-7.5% of hull and machinery value per transit, from 0.10%-0.25% pre-conflict. For a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels at US$ 100 per barrel, it could translate into US$ 10-15 million, virtually adding another US$ 5-7 per barrel of oil transported.
The cost of diesel too is an important factor in all this. After all, it is not the crude oil that is consumed but the diesel and petrol coming out of refineries. The shortage of diesel is reaching alarming proportions. President Trump has threatened to stop export of diesel to Europe unless they release 100 million barrels in the global market to cool to shortage. With winters approaching fast, Russian supply of gas unsure due to war in Ukraine and the gas supplies from Qatar severely disrupted due to the blockade, Europe has very little choice but to comply. As per Kpler, the Middle East supplied nearly 41% of Europeâs diesel imports in 2025, which is now down to almost nil. Plus, China has imposed a temporary ban on all fuel exports and Russia has had a diesel export ban in place for months as it is facing huge shortages due to its refineries being hit by Ukrainian drones and is therefore forced to import diesel from India. The availability crisis of diesel is compounded by the rising prices too with diesel being sold in excess of US$ 6.00 per gallon in the US against a sub US$ 4.0 before the Iran war.
The world may still get the oil and move it, but in today's energy crisis, the journey of the barrel is becoming as consequential as the barrel itself.
(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a strategic affairs expert and author of book "Between Tehran and Tel Aviv: Gaza's Story of Unending War".)
Over the past seven months, all other war objectives including Iranâs nuclear issue have been put aside and the key point is, how to open the blockade and ensure safe passage of ships across the Hormuz. The sudden breakout of conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea region, close to another crucial choke point, the Bab-al-Mandeb, has only worsened the global energy crisis.
Also read:Iran says US response to its proposal to reopen Hormuz was 'insufficient'
In a pre-28th February scenario, 120-130 ships used to transit the Hormuz, carrying almost 20 million barrels of crude oil per day, which came down to a trickle, often in single digits due to the Iranian and the US naval blockade.
However, in recent weeks, a strange paradox is being experienced in the global energy markets. Despite the double blockade across the Hormuz, recent reports indicate that crude oil exports from the Gulf region (including the oil transported through pipelines in the Red Sea) are reaching pre-war levels.
In September, crude oil exports from the region rose to 22.5 million bpd as per provisional data from shiptracking firm Kpler. These include transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals through pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Yet, the prices of crude oil remain high and are currently trading in the range of US$ 105 per barrel.
Also, the global energy crisis continues despite increased availability of oil as also 400 million barrels from the global strategic reserves (including 100 million barrels of diesel), being made available through International Energy Agency (IEA) to keep the crisis under control.
Why is this happening? If the global energy crisis was about the availability of crude, it is available now, in reasonable quantities. The real energy shock apparently is no longer simply about a supply deficit, but a âlogistics premiumâ imposed on every barrel that transits as also oil being reliably and economically deliverable.
The central question in the energy market is therefore moving from âHow much oil is available?â to a deeper and often deceptive question, âHow much is it costing (and hurting) to move a barrel of crude oil from oil fields to refineries across the globe, costs in terms of time, shipping, insurance, threats of attacks and seizures, crew etc?â. And therefore, the oil crisis due to the war in Iran is not merely an oil-supply or price crisis but a compounding problem due to hidden oil-movement crisis.
A number of independent yet closely interlinked factors are contributing to it, which need to be examined one by one.
The Hormuz shuttleIran has made it clear that oil tanker ships can only transit safely if they follow the northern route in the Hormuz Strait which they control. All other ships attempting the central channel or the southern channel which is in Omani waters are liable to be shot at.
To circumvent it, oil traders are resorting to shuttles across the Hormuz transporting crude oil in smaller ships carrying 40,000-50,000 barrels, crossing the Strait in dark with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off. On reaching safer ports in the Oman sea, like Fujairah of the UAE or other holding areas, the oil is transferred to larger tankers. This ship-to-ship transfer however, has a dual cost attached to it.
If smaller ships with 50,000 barrels have to load up a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) ship with an average capacity of 2 million barrels, it requires 40 ships of load. If the average number of ships that are able to escape Iranâs vigil in the dark is 20 per day, it implies that to load up a VLCC, it takes two nights of ships crossing the Hormuz discreetly.
If the loading time of another 24-48 hours is added (especially if the VLCC is not anchored at port), the cost of time just goes up by another significant notch. A barrel that earlier required just a single loading at an oil terminal, has to now undergo multiple loadings.
There are other added costs and risks too. The large number of smaller ships required to load up a VLCC creates a virtual choke point in the sea, leaving very little space for manoeuvre of ships in ports. It also creates a large concentrated target for Iranian missiles to target and disrupt the passage.
Shortage of Ships and Increased PremiumsAlthough the Hormuz shuttle has created a successful bypass, the number of ships required to load up large tankers has made availability of smaller ships at premium, both in numbers and cost. Even the availability of VLCC is now at premium because of the additional turnaround time required for VLCC to complete a transit.
Estimates suggest that against an average time of 30 days for a tanker to complete its voyage in Asia, it is now taking 45 days due to increased delay imposed by diversions, waiting, ship-to-ship transfers and security. Simply, it means that the turnaround time has increased by 50 percent, leading to reduced and delayed availability of the ship for a second round of transit and thus the need for more tankers.
Also, the increased instances of ships being hit by Iranian missiles is leading to reduced availability in numbers. In the last two weeks, UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO) has reported (and these are conservative estimates) that 15 vessels have been struck by Iran.
A vessel was struck deep in the Gulf of Oman as well as off the coast of Qatar in the Persian Gulf that resulted in multiple casualties. Satellite imagery also indicated a fire on a Super-tanker DALKHUT off the Fujairah port of UAE on 8th October.
Also read: India shields city gas users as Hormuz crisis threatens South Asia's LNG demand
By doing this, Iran is not only displaying its ability to target ships beyond the Hormuz but is putting at risk the bypass formula of a safe and discreet method of oil, increasing the risk and premium on availability of ships.
Compounding the problem of availability of tankers is the sharp increase in the rates to transport crude from the Middle East to Asia aboard a VLCC which is now US $1.2 million per day, up from US $30,000 a day in January.
As a result, freight costs that once accounted for around 3% of the delivered price of a barrel now represent roughly 27%. Financial Times reported that a US oil trader is buying 15-20 second super-tankers at around US$ 2 billion to take oil from Iraq to refineries in India and China, hoping to make windfall gains from the hugely escalated costs of leasing a super-tanker.
The Hidden CostsIn addition to the price of crude, there is a hidden cost that is not being added- Gulf countries, especially Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain etc which have no alternate route except Hormuz, may be quietly paying Iran to let their tankers through. Some estimates suggest that it could be in the range of 10% or even 20% of a cargo's value.
If a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels at US$ 100 is to pay a 10 percent fee to Iran, it would mean a whopping US$ 20 million per VLCC! If even 5 VLCC are loaded per day, it would imply a revenue of US$ 3 Billion per month, almost the same amount that Iran was demanding the US to defreeze as an initial measure of implementing a peace deal.
The insurance costs have risen sharply too. Based on industry estimates as of July 2026, war risk cover for transits through the Strait of Hormuz had increased to 3.5%-7.5% of hull and machinery value per transit, from 0.10%-0.25% pre-conflict. For a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels at US$ 100 per barrel, it could translate into US$ 10-15 million, virtually adding another US$ 5-7 per barrel of oil transported.
The cost of diesel too is an important factor in all this. After all, it is not the crude oil that is consumed but the diesel and petrol coming out of refineries. The shortage of diesel is reaching alarming proportions. President Trump has threatened to stop export of diesel to Europe unless they release 100 million barrels in the global market to cool to shortage. With winters approaching fast, Russian supply of gas unsure due to war in Ukraine and the gas supplies from Qatar severely disrupted due to the blockade, Europe has very little choice but to comply. As per Kpler, the Middle East supplied nearly 41% of Europeâs diesel imports in 2025, which is now down to almost nil. Plus, China has imposed a temporary ban on all fuel exports and Russia has had a diesel export ban in place for months as it is facing huge shortages due to its refineries being hit by Ukrainian drones and is therefore forced to import diesel from India. The availability crisis of diesel is compounded by the rising prices too with diesel being sold in excess of US$ 6.00 per gallon in the US against a sub US$ 4.0 before the Iran war.
ConclusionThe Hormuz crisis has exposed a fundamental weakness in the global energy system- energy security is not merely about shipping barrels, but delivering them safely, reliably and affordably. Every additional tanker, transfer, insurance premium and day at sea adds to the hidden cost of energy. For India, the lesson is critical-diversifying sources of import must be complemented by strengthening strategic reserves, securing maritime logistics and building its own shipping lines (quickly).
The world may still get the oil and move it, but in today's energy crisis, the journey of the barrel is becoming as consequential as the barrel itself.
(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a strategic affairs expert and author of book "Between Tehran and Tel Aviv: Gaza's Story of Unending War".)
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
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