ConflictClarifier

2026 Iran-Gulf Crisis Tracker
CC
Events Archive
strikeSep 15, 2026

Everybody Involved In The "AI Extinction" Conversation Is Talking Their Own Book

Summary

Everybody Involved In The "AI Extinction" Conversation Is Talking Their Own Book By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank Coalition of the Exceedingly Reluctant US 10-year bond yields topped 5% on Monday, and again on Tuesday, as crude oil prices continued to move higher and overnight index swaps implied a higher chance of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. The OIS market now has 24.9bps priced in for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting – suggesting that traders view a Fed hike this week as a near certainty. US and European equities were broadly lower on Monday as markets digested the implications of tech CEOs banding together to plead for regulation to slow the pace of development of frontier AI models. While Darion Amodei, Elon Musk and Sam Altman were saying “please sir, can I have a bit less” we saw dissent from Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang with the former saying that AI development needed to be speeded up and the latter telling President Trump that “we’re not going to let that happen” in reference to an AI slowdown. There is a sense here that everybody involved in this conversation is talking their own book. As noted here yesterday, CEOs of frontier model developers are being criticized for seeking regulatory moats to protect their own margins. Meta already enjoys a huge moat from network effects and distribution incumbency and would likely see a benefit to operating margins from lower inference costs. NVIDIA wants to keep the hyper scaling arms race going so it can keep on selling chips. Trump, meanwhile, views AI as a national security issue where the US cannot afford to take its foot off the gas pedal. This sentiment was recently echoed by Australia’s putative Prime-Minister-in-waiting, Andrew Hastie, who said that failure to develop indigenous frontier AI models will leave Australia as a supplicant, rather than a sovereign state. ECB President Lagarde said much the same thing as she warned against relying on US models: “There is nothing inherently bad about importing rather than producing new technologies... But there are reasons why artificial intelligence is ‘special’”. So, to refashion Trump’s earlier warning that “if you don’t have steel, you don’t have a country”: “if you don’t have domestic AI capabilities, you don’t have a country”. While the new economy of AI preoccupied markets for most of yesterday, the much-neglected old economy continued to serve up inconvenient reminders of the importance of real production to 21st century life. Entirely predictable attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline, reports that damage to the pipeline could take months to repair, and the sense that even if it is repaired it could easily be attacked again ensured that oil markets remained bid. Reports from Iran’s Fars news agency that an oil tanker exploded after colliding with a mine in Omani waters did the same. The spread between dated brent and the front future has blown out to the highest levels since mid April, suggesting further tightness in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure feedstock. That dynamic won’t be helped by news that the US is approaching the end of its program to release supply from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Reserves are sitting at their lowest levels since the 1980s when it was first being filled and there has been an ongoing conversation within oil circles that stock levels may be approaching minimum levels beyond which the structural integrity of the salt caverns where it is stored are threatened. The rundown in US stocks and soaring gasoline prices has invigorated speculation that the administration could seek to impose export bans on certain oil products ahead of the midterm elections in November – a prospect that Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum hosed down by saying that it wouldn’t help to lower prices. A meeting was supposed to be held between officials from Iran, Iraq and the GCC nations yesterday in Oman to finalize an agreement to restore traffic to the Strait of Hormuz. That was postponed as parties reportedly failed to reach agreement, which is no surprise considering that the US will not allow Iranian oil through its blockade and Iran will not allow anyone else’s oil through the strait while the blockade remains in place. For now, Iran appears content to up the ante against the US and its allies ahead of the midterm elections by restricting flows through the Red Sea and, especially, through the Bab el-Mandeb. Will Uncle Sam say “uncle!”? Escalation in the Bab el-Mandeb means that Asia and Oceania are once again ground zero for energy market risk. With that context established, Australia’s Energy Minister confirmed today that he will travel to Saudi Arabia next week in an effort to shore up energy supplies for the months ahead. Reaching agreement with Saudi officials is likely to be the easy part, actually moving product to market may prove somewhat harder. Given that South Korea is reportedly reconsidering initial opposition to deploying its military to assist in the Strait of Hormuz, and UK PM Burnham’s indications within the last 24 hours that the UK may seek to support Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis in Yemen, might Australia also be about to join a coalition of the exceedingly reluctant? If so, Australia’s PM Albanese would likely confront the same issue as the UK’s Burnham: a shortage of available ships with sufficient warfighting capability. Sticking with the theme of neglected corners of the old-economy throwing up problems for western policymakers, news emerged yesterday that efforts to restart the blast furnace at Australia’s only-remaining long products steel mill had failed. In effect, this means that Australia is now completely import dependent for certain steel products with important industrial *and military* applications that in earlier times it was largely self-sufficient in courtesy of vast mineral and energy endowments that provided all the necessary ingredients, and the cheap power, to produce the outputs. Those natural advantages have wilted under rising energy prices and competition from imports following deregulatory moves and the removal of tariff protection in the 1980s and ‘90s. Speaking of competition from imports, new data released by China’s Bureau of National Statistics confirmed that in August retail sales were – once again- weaker than expected while industrial production was – once again – stronger than expected and house prices – once again – fell. Taken together with news that China’s unemployment rate in August rose to its highest level since March, the overall picture continues to be once of weak domestic demand and very strong production, creating a large exportable surplus that is one half of the structural trade imbalance that lies at the heart of the unfolding geopolitical upheaval that we are now living through. While we may hope that next week, or next month, or next election cycle will bring calmer waters from a geopolitical perspective, it is probably the case that until something changes on those structural imbalances, nothing changes. In the meantime, got oil? Tyler Durden Tue, 09/15/2026 - 11:20

Actors involved

USIranProxyChina

Sources

  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Everybody Involved In The "AI Extinction" Conversation Is Talking Their Own Book By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank Coalition of the Exceedingly Reluctant US 10-year bond yields topped 5% on Monday, and again on Tuesday, as crude oil prices co…

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyUNTaiwan
○ 1 source

Saudi Arabia yesterday vowed to respond “firmly” to attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, after the Iran-backed fighters wounded 13 people in the kingdom in an assault using ballistic missiles and drones. The Houthis have been engaged in renewed fighting with Saudi-backed government forces since Yemen’s civil war reignited in July, when the group declared a maritime blockade on Riyadh and began targeting its ships in the Red Sea.

They seized control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait last week, which has become vital as the wider US-Iran war chokes the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Reuters Saudi Arabia yesterday issued attack alerts for Mecca — the holy city’s first of the Middle East war — and Jeddah and Taif governorates, before quickly canceling them.

The Saudi Civil Defense had earlier issued short-lived air-raid alerts in six regions. The Houthis have also targeted the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading crude exporter, pushing global oil prices above the US$100 threshold. A Houthi strike in western Yemen on Monday killed eight government soldiers, two military sources said.

The group also claimed a new large-scale attack using “dozens of ballistic missiles and drones” against King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, in southern Saudi Arabia. A Khamis Mushait resident said he heard “intense blasts” that left fires burning for a “long time.

” “Honestly, we couldn’t sleep at all,” they said. The Riyadh-led coalition yesterday confirmed there had been missile and drone attacks the previous day on Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif, reporting 13 civilians wounded and damage to seven houses and two vehicles.

Saudi Arabia responded with more than 50 strikes, as it had the day before, the Houthis said. As the attacks continue, the UN Security Council was due to meet to discuss the Houthis’ offensive, diplomatic sources said. The coalition said it would deal with the attacks “firmly to protect the sovereignty of the Kingdom” and would take “all necessary operational measures to deter this ...

hostile and extremist approach.” While Saudi Arabia has conducted dozens of airstrikes on Houthi-held areas, it has so far failed to deter the fighters’ lightning offensive. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was expected to hold talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi yesterday.

US media last week reported that US President Donald Trump had rejected a personal request from the crown prince to intervene in the war. Trump on Saturday said the Houthis had called Washington and asked the US not to get involved. Meanwhile, the US is facing a shortfall in ammunition as a result of its war against Iran, the US Department of Defense’s inspector general confirmed on Monday, contrasting with Trump’s assertions of full stocks.

In a first-of-its-kind mandatory report to the US Congress, the inspector said that between Feb. 28 and June 30, Operation Epic Fury (OEF) had an estimated cost of US$33.4 billion, including US$22.3 billion spent on expended munitions. “The munitions expenditure on OEF has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply,” the report said.

An unauthorized drone intrusion over Ching Chuan Kang Air Base (清泉崗基地) at Taichung International Airport on Tuesday night forced the temporary closure of the base, diverting eight fighter jets and delaying a commercial flight, authorities said. Air Force Command Headquarters said that clear weather had allowed for scheduled night training exercises, but after a drone was spotted entering the airspace, the control tower declared an emergency closure of the airport, forcing eight Indigenous Defense Fighter jets in the air to divert and land at Hsinchu Air Base (新竹基地).

Taichung airport director Chang Jui-shu (張瑞澍) said the airspace intrusion lasted from 7:37pm to Indonesian rescuers searched for eight people who went missing at sea while heading to a volcanic island to report on an eruption there, officials said yesterday.

Anak Krakatau initially erupted for about 25 hours over the weekend, and it has since continued to erupt intermittently with explosions ejecting lava, ash and incandescent volcanic material from the crater, the Indonesian Geology Agency said in a statement.

A speedboat carrying five photojournalists, two crew members and a route guide lost contact after leaving Carita, a coastal town in Banten Province, for the volcanic island, Banten Province Search and Rescue Office Chief Al Amrad said. He PRICE STABILIZATION: The Ministry of Economic Affairs has urged the legislature to support the Cabinet’s supplementary budget for state-owned energy companies State-owned oil supplier CPC Corp, Taiwan (CPC, 台灣中油) on Saturday announced that it would raise domestic gasoline prices by NT$0.

7 (US$0.02) per liter and diesel prices by NT$0.6 per liter this week after international crude oil prices rose above US$100 per barrel last week. Formosa Petrochemical Corp (台塑石化) yesterday said that it matched CPC’s price adjustments for this week.

The decisions end a six-week period during which CPC and Formosa kept fuel prices in Taiwan unchanged. Retail gasoline prices this week would rise to NT$31.2, NT$32.7 and NT$34.7 per liter for 92, 95 and 98-octane unleaded gasoline respectively at CPC More than 100 Taiwanese-Americans, Taiwanese lawmakers and members of civic groups on Saturday marched through New York City to call for Taiwan’s participation in the UN, with Marshall Island Permanent Representative to the UN John Silk joining the event to show support.

Participants chanted: “UN for Taiwan” and “Keep Taiwan Free” as they marched through central Manhattan, passing Times Square and Bryant Park before ending near the New York Public Library. The annual march brought together Taiwanese community groups from across the US East Coast.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyChina
○ 1 source

President Donald Trump stated on Sept. 14 that other nations should reimburse the United States for military efforts to secure oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing Iran war. While he asserted that oil continues to flow through the waterway, he claimed foreign partners have provided no assistance and indicated openness to negotiations, noting that Tehran reportedly seeks to end the conflict.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyUN
○ 1 source

Saudi Arabia faces hard choices as Houthis gain in YemenSeptember 15, 2026 Saudi Arabia is being increasingly affected by the rapidly escalating conflict across its southern border in Yemen, where the Iran-backed Houthis are fighting Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia injured another 13 people on Monday night bringing the total number of people injured since the conflict escalated in July to about 100. In July, the Houthis also blocked Saudi oil shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key waterway that had been serving as an alternative route for Saudi oil exports amid Iran's blockade of the nearby Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, Saudi Arabia's alternative lifeline for oil export, the East-West pipeline, was allegedly targeted by Iranian proxy militias in Iraq. On Tuesday, officials said that it might take weeks to repair the damage to the pipeline which runs 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) across the country and ends at the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

"Riyadh faces a genuine dilemma," Neil Quilliam, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told DW. "The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to protect both Saudi security and Saudi economic development simultaneously," he said.

"The difficulty is that the Houthis are increasingly able to threaten both." Saudi Arabia seeks to balance deterrence and diplomacy Saudi Arabia has one of the most heavily armed and technologically sophisticated militaries in the Middle East, especially in combat aviation and air defense.

But the country is "reluctant to become drawn back into a costly military campaign in Yemen," Quilliam said. A Saudi-led military coalition intervened in Yemen in 2015 to support the government's fight against Houthi insurgents. After seven years of intense war between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed government, the fighting eased in 2022 with a UN-brokered truce.

The latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-backed government in Yemen aim to pressure Saudi Arabia to end its air and sea blockades on Houthi-held territory which have not been fully lifted despite the 2022 truce. "Saudi Arabia is now in a very complicated situation," Sebastian Sons, Middle East observer at the German Middle East Research Center CARPO, said.

"On the one hand, it needs to make it clear to the Houthis that a red line has been crossed and that there must also be a military response, particularly in coordination with Yemen's internationally recognized government. "But on the other hand, it also needs to keep the lines of communication open in order to get back to the negotiating table and to de-escalate the situation.

" In his view, Riyadh's goal is to balance deterrence and diplomacy. "The argument is very clear," he said, adding that "the Houthis are not only a threat to Saudi Arabia but to the global economy as a whole." After Houthi advances in southern Yemen last week, including the seizure of port cities and Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the rebels are now able to exert even more pressure on global oil supply.

This strategy could lend more leverage to Iran in its war with the United States. According to the maritime data and analytics firm Kpler, only 21 commodity vessels transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Monday. Before the crisis, the narrow waterway handled roughly 30% of global container traffic.

Saudi Arabia's 'new level of vulnerability' "The current conflict exposes a new level of vulnerability for Saudi Arabia," Quilliam from Chatham House said. "And it's being tested from all sides." While Saudi Arabia is a close US ally, three sources told the Reuters news agency that Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS, phoned US President Donald Trump last Thursday, asking for military aid to fight the advancing Houthis.

The sources said that he was only offered intelligence support for now as Trump hesitated to join another front in the ongoing US war in Iran. The recently signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan has also yet to be activated.

So far, Pakistan, an Iranian ally and mediator in the current US war in Iran, has been reluctant to directly join the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. "The untested nature of the Mecca Pact adds to Saudi Arabia's challenges," Quilliam said.

Saudi Arabia's silencing of dissent Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces growing domestic pressure. "People expect economic progress," Sons told DW. For Saudi Arabia's population, this means "affordable housing, jobs and protection from additional attacks from Yemen," he said.

On top of this, Saudi Arabia needs stability to continue progressing its costly Vision 2030 reform. The sweeping diversification agenda aims to reduce the kingdom's reliance on oil and to transform the economy and society but the foreign investment, tourism and investor confidence all depend on a stable security situation, Quilliam points out.

Other major planned events in Saudi Arabia, such as the Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup depend on geopolitical stability as well. In turn, as security threats grow and economic pressures mount, human rights observers say Saudi authorities are becoming increasingly sensitive to criticism of their handling of the crisis.

"Since MBS rose to power, there has been a strong crackdown on freedom of expression, especially regarding criticism of Saudi foreign policy," Yahya Al-Asiri, founder of the London-based Saudi rights organization ALQST for Human Rights, told DW. "Critics and individuals calling for peace are dealt with harshly," he said, highlighting that people are charged under the country's counter-terrorism laws and sentenced to lengthy prison terms or even to death for nonviolent actions.

In 2025, Saudi Arabia carried out at least 356 executions, the highest annual total recorded by ALQST. This week, the rights watchdog warned that Saudi authorities executed at least 154 people between January and September 2026. Of the 154 executions, 101 were carried out for drug-related crimes while nine executions took place for terrorism-related offenses "which according to the vague and overly broad definition in Saudi law can include a wide range of non-lethal acts," the report states.

Edited by: K.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyUN
○ 1 source

Since July 2026, Houthi attacks have injured approximately 100 people in Saudi Arabia, while the group also disrupted oil shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Additionally, reports indicate that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was targeted by alleged Iranian proxy militias, with officials stating repairs may take weeks.

Analysts suggest these concurrent security and economic pressures have created a complex strategic dilemma for the Saudi government.

Location: Yemen