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strikeAug 24, 2026

Has Trump Turned The Tables On Iran - Or Is Another Round Of War Coming?

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Has Trump Turned The Tables On Iran - Or Is Another Round Of War Coming? Authored by Trita Parsi via Antiwar.com, reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi's Substack. The Trump administration believes it has turned the tables on Iran. Washington assesses that the rerouting of maritime traffic through the Omani corridor, combined with a global shift away from Persian Gulf oil, has reduced the effectiveness of Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the U.S. blockade has sharply constrained Iran's ability to sell its oil. The result, in Washington's view, is a status quo that imposes greater costs on Iran than on the United States. That calculation changes the strategic equation. Rather than being forced to accommodate Iranian demands, President Donald Trump now believes he can afford to wait Tehran out. For the first time since the war began, the White House has concluded, time is working in America's favor. Assuming that assessment is correct, the more important question is what Trump intends to do with this newfound leverage. If Washington interprets Iran's vulnerability as an opportunity to extract capitulation rather than to negotiate a durable settlement, the result is more likely to be another round of war than an end to the conflict. Tehran has already demonstrated that when confronted with a choice between surrender and escalation, it will choose the latter. Giving Iran the same choice again is therefore unlikely to produce a different outcome. The only way to turn this unexpected shift in the balance of leverage into a political victory is through diplomacy. If Washington's assessment is correct, it now has an opportunity to use its leverage to secure a compromise that addresses its core interests while giving Tehran sufficient reason to accept an agreement. If, instead, the administration pursues maximalist demands, it risks converting a moment of leverage into another cycle of war. Historically, however, Washington has tended to make precisely this mistake. Whenever U.S. policymakers have concluded that time and leverage are on their side, they have often treated Iranian weakness not as an opening for compromise, but as an opportunity to seek capitulation. The danger is that Trump will repeat that pattern. He will mistake leverage for victory and turn a potentially favorable negotiating position into the continuation of the tragedy that is US-Iran relations. Trump failed militarily, but thinks he can win economically America has run out of military options. The clearest indication is that the Trump administration has stopped striking Iranian targets even as Tehran continues to attack ships transiting the Strait. On Monday, an Iranian attack killed a sailor aboard a vessel using the southern corridor. Yet Washington did not respond militarily - even though the second round of the war began precisely because the administration had declared that it could not accept Iran firing on ships. According to Reuters, U.S. forces have used virtually all of their global stockpile of ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) during the five-month Iran conflict. Moreover, roughly 65% of Patriot interceptors, 38% of THAAD interceptors, and almost half of the Navy's Tomahawk cruise missiles have been expended. The depletion of these stocks appears to have forced Trump to abandon its pursuit of a military knockout and instead shift the burden of economic pressure onto Tehran. That strategy, in turn, appears to be producing results faster - and to a greater degree - than the administration anticipated. In the American description of events, this success is mainly due to three factors: New, much larger ships are being used that carry primarily crude oil. These VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carrier) can carry up to 2 million barrels of oil. In comparison, other oil tankers can transport between 350,000 and 1 million barrels. Before the outbreak of the war, approximately 21 million barrels of petroleum and crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis. These were carried by 65 to 80 tankers. Roughly the same amount of oil transition through the strait can now be achieved by only ten VLCCs a day. And given that the vast majority of ships transitioning through the Strait in the Southern Corridor have their transponders off, this traffic has not been noted by outlets tracking the traffic. Secondly, demand for Persian Gulf oil has significantly dropped as numerous economies have started to transition to other sources of supply. Brazil, for instance, has increased its exports and started to serve markets that previously relied on Persian Gulf oil. Most importantly, Beijing appears to have deliberately reduced its oil consumption to prevent prices from remaining above $100 a barrel and thereby aggravating the risk of a global recession. Third, the war has created economic incentives strong enough to attract ships and crews willing to assume substantially greater risks. The growing volume of traffic through the Southern Corridor, despite the obvious dangers, is evidence that these incentives are surprisingly powerful. Unlike its earlier illusions about the blockade as a guaranteed knockout blow against the Iranian theocracy, Washington no longer expects economic pressure to produce a quick surrender. Instead, the administration appears to be betting on a slower process of economic strangulation that will eventually force Tehran to capitulate. Faith in a knockout blow has given way to the more fragile hope of prolonged strangulation. Tehran isn't worried - for now Iran's calculation is effectively the opposite of Washington's. Tehran doubts the United States can sustain the flow of VLCC traffic through the Strait and believes Trump will have little choice but to return to the Islamabad MOU within the next two to three weeks. Trump may have made progress on oil exports, but LNG and many petrochemical products, including fertilizers, remain unable to leave the Persian Gulf. Tehran also appears to believe that it retains the ability to halt the VLCC traffic, but is deliberately refraining from doing so for now. The calculation is to avoid escalation while waiting to see whether the United States' depleted military options ultimately compel Trump to return to the MOU. In short, Tehran does not appear overly concerned - for now. But that could change. If Trump refuses to return to the MOU, or succeeds in turning the balance of economic pain against Iran, Tehran will face a far harsher reality. Just as Washington underestimated Iran's resilience, Tehran may have underestimated the both resilience of the global economy and Trump - the former's ability to shift away from oil and the latter's craftiness in finding non-military ways to effectively reopen parts of the Strait. Between surrender or escalation, Iran will almost certainly choose escalation. Even if Trump has gained the economic upper hand, Tehran still believes it holds a military advantage. Its options range from more aggressive attacks on VLCCs to strikes on Emirati pipelines that bypass the Strait, and potentially to renewed escalation in the Red Sea. Indeed, it was precisely Trump's erroneous assumption that Iran would choose surrender over war that helped drive the United States toward escalation in the first place. Washington's recurring search for Iran's breaking point has repeatedly produced escalation rather than capitulation. There is little reason to expect the pattern to be different this time. The US-Iran tragedy Herein lies the tragedy of the lethal dance between Washington and Tehran. America's winner-take-all approach makes agreement unacceptable when Iran has the momentum. When the momentum shifts to Washington, the United States comes to believe that nothing short of Tehran's full capitulation is palpable. Because Iran fears surrender more than war, the cycle oscillates between economic pressure and military escalation, interrupted only by brief and often fragile periods of diplomacy. Put simply, the structure of the situation favors war. This is particularly visible today as neither side is investing in any real diplomacy with the other. Tehran's "diplomacy" is to simply wait for Trump to return to the MOU, while Trump has barred U.S. officials from engaging with Iran and committed himself instead to economic warfare. When you don't negotiate when you're weak, because you are weak, and you don't negotiate when you are strong, because you are strong, then war becomes the baseline. Trita Parsi is the Executive VP of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and an award-winning author. Washingtonian Magazine has named him one of the 25 most influential voices on foreign policy. Noam Chomsky calls him "one of the most distinguished scholars on Iran" Tyler Durden Sun, 08/23/2026 - 22:10

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Has Trump Turned The Tables On Iran - Or Is Another Round Of War Coming? Authored by Trita Parsi via Antiwar.com, reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi's Substack. The Trump administration believes it has turned the tables on Iran. Washington assesses that the …

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Also read: Saudi oil tanker heads to India as Red Sea, Hormuz traffic slows amid attacks Shipping from Yanbu has itself faced disruption since Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea last month. The Houthis have carried out attacks on Saudi oil facilities and shipping in the Red Sea in recent weeks, and they claimed to have targeted Saudi oil giant Aramco facilities in Yanbu in July.

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In an unusual turn of events, Israel’s decision to carry out an airstrike in northern Syria may have helped spur the US to action in terms of helping Syria and Israel come to some kind of accommodation and agreement. Israel has long used military power as a way to send messages and also wring concessions.

This has led to the Trump administration helping to get a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza and also get a ceasefire in Lebanon. Now the warnings of a crisis in Syria between Israel and Turkey, two key US allies, may help lead to some kind of positive outcome.

A lot depends on whether Jerusalem is willing to climb down from some of its rhetoric. It also will depend on what the US can help arrange. This isn’t the first time the US helped bring Syria and Israel to the table. There was a trilateral meeting in January.

Now Syrian state media is portraying Israel-Syria engagement as potentially heading in the right direction. Syria doesn't trust Israel, Foreign Minister says as negotiations continue Syrian state media said on August 21 that “Foreign Minister, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, said Syria expects negotiations with Israel over a security agreement to resume soon, stressing that Damascus’ immediate priority is to halt Israeli attacks and establish confidence-building measures.

” The report noted that “in an interview with Reuters broadcast Sunday, al-Shaibani said Damascus hopes a security agreement would ultimately lead to an Israeli withdrawal from the Syrian territory, calling for a ‘historic opportunity’ to be seized while diplomacy remains open to any path capable of achieving political progress.

” He pointed to the fact that there wasn’t a follow-up from the January meeting. “The negotiations were frozen after the Iranian-Israeli war, and we hope they will resume in the near future so that we can complete this process,” al-Shaibani said. “We do not trust Israel at present.

We deal with it through our interactions, but there is currently no trust,” he noted. “Contacts were suspended following the Israeli attack on Abu al-Duhur military airbase in Idlib province last Tuesday,” the report said. This illustrates that there are limits to how effective military force will be for Israel.

The strategist Clausewitz argued that military operations and politics are entwined. One cannot solely pursue diplomacy or war. SANA noted that “Al-Shaibani said communication was necessary, particularly with a party that constantly threatens Syria’s security, but stressed that Damascus had no interest in contacts that produced no results.

” The Syrian diplomat said, “Israel has repeatedly tried to preserve its security through hard power, and it has not succeeded…The door is open, and I believe negotiations will resume soon.” Syria believes the US can help get to the proverbial “yes.” Shaibani said, regarding whether he is optimistic, that it is “very difficult to bet on Israel.

” Nevertheless, Syria wants stability. His messaging is clear. The door is open to a positive future. “He stressed that Syria was extending its hand toward understandings, peace and diplomacy and wanted the region to be stable. Damascus, he said, had no objection to Israel asking that its security concerns be taken into consideration, but Israel must likewise respect Syria’s security concerns and sovereignty,” SANA noted.

Lastly, “on the proposed security agreement, al-Shaibani made clear that the Syrian and Israeli sides had agreed on almost everything on paper, including several points, foremost among them an end to Israeli attacks on Syria and non-interference in its internal affairs.

” “Syria’s focus now is on stopping the attacks before anything else, even before the security agreement,” the Foreign Minister said. “The issues of peace and the Golan could be opened later. We have now taken a step backward.” Talk of a new mechanism linked to talks in Jordan, that would help de-conflict, is key.

“We want it to be a mechanism to stop the attacks and pave the way for reaching a security agreement culminating in Israel’s withdrawal from Syria,” he added. “Al-Shaibani went on to say that Israel attacked Abu al-Duhur military airbase even after Syria had conveyed a message that the facility would not become a Turkish base,” SANA noted.

Jordan hosted Syria talks in the past In addition, Syrian state media confirmed reports of a meeting in Jordan. “a high-level Syrian delegation headed by Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani and including the heads of the General Intelligence and Military Intelligence services held a meeting Sunday with a high-level Israeli delegation under US mediation and hosted by Jordan, a diplomatic source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates told SANA.

” The report went on to note that “discussions focused on establishing practical mechanisms to halt Israeli attacks, arrests and targeting operations, and reviving negotiations with the aim of reaching a security agreement that could serve as the basis for a more comprehensive future agreement.

” Lastly, “according to the source, the meeting focused on practical steps to de-escalate tensions while exploring ways to return to negotiations, with Syria stressing that any security arrangements must respect its sovereignty, territorial integrity and sovereign rights.

” It’s worth noting that the Trump administration has turned to Jordan before regarding Syria. Back in 2017, during the first Trump administration, the US, Russia and Jordan agreed to put in place a ceasefire across south-western Syria. That ceasefire collapsed in 2018.

However, at the time it showed how Jordan could play an important role. Jordan has also carried out airstrikes against drug smugglers in southern Syria in recent years. In 2018 Jordan took in the White Helmets after Israel helped facilitate their evacuation from southern Syria via the Golan.

This shows how Jordan continues to play a pragmatic role. Jordan has ties with Israel. Also it supports the new Syrian government. It is also a friend of the US and UK and a key friend of Gulf Arab states. As such, Amman and the US appear to be paving the way for better engagement between Israel and Syria, potentially calming tensions.

Location: Jerusalem