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strikeSep 14, 2026

Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez: The war for the chokepoints that move the world's oil

Summary

Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez: The war for the chokepoints that move the world's oil Iran is shaping the battlefield for a possible third round of conflict with the US. Like whirling dervishes, patterns of conflict are once again building up around the Arabian Peninsula. A ceasefire which halted the two-month Iran-US war on April 8, now exists only in name. The region is poised on the precipice of what analysts believe is a possible third and far more intense round of conflict. At the Strait of Hormuz, a US-Iran tit-for-tat battle continues. The US has been escorting oil tankers through the Straits while imposing an economic blockade on Tehran. The US military destroyed five oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in response to which the IRGC launched attacks at US warships and ballistic missile barrages at the Muwaffaq Salti air base in Jordan, used by the US military. The most extraordinary development has been Iran-aligned Houthis capturing all of Yemen’s sea coast. This puts them in a commanding position to blockade the Strait. When the Houthis struck at Western shipping using drones and missiles since the October 7, 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict, they were doing so from their mountain redoubts. By capturing the coast, the port city of Mokha and islands like Mayun and Perim, the Houthis can now directly target shipping in the 26-km wide strait. Oman postponed a crucial September 14 meeting between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran set to begin in Salalah stating ‘more time was needed to create conditions for constructive dialogue’. Any flare-up in conflict has ominous consequences for world energy supplies. The Peninsula, roughly the size of India, and accounting for 20 per cent of the global energy supplies. Giant oil tankers load up and ship out nearly all of this oil and gas past three chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Oil prices hit a record high on September 14, jumping to 108 dollars a barrel, a 54 per cent increase from February 28 when the conflict began. For India, every 1 dollar increase in oil prices means a foreign exchange outgo of around two billion dollars or roughly Rs 19,000 crore. Saudi Arabia is one of India’s largest oil suppliers, accounting for nearly 8 per cent of New Delhi’s oil. Most of this oil is shipped through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. These oil exports are now imperilled by the Houthis who have strangled Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea oil infrastructure. On September 11, Saudi Arabia shut down its 1,201-km long East-West oil pipeline, built to bypass the Hormuz Strait. The pipeline was struck by drones launched from Iraq, ostensibly by Iran-backed militias. Saudi Arabia's crude supply fell 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) on the month to 6 million bpd in August, the lowest level in more than three decades. Iran’s current expansion of the conflict amounts to what militaries say is ‘shaping the battlefield’—placing your assets in an advantageous position. On September 2, Mohsen Rezai, Iran’s Secretary of the National Security Council, warned of a ‘new Iranian strategy’ across the battlefield, diplomacy and countering the economic siege ‘will shatter your foundations’. The new strategy appears to be directly aimed at impacting President Trump’s chances in the November 3 US mid-term elections which will decide how much agency the US President has in his remaining two years in office. The activation of the Houthis to capture the peninsula’s southern chokepoint was a surprise. Particularly since March this year, the Houthis went missing in action. They appeared to stay out of the conflict even as their main sponsor, Iran was hit by intense Israeli-US aerial strikes. Their swift advances six months later could be what militaries call ‘application of reserves’, withholding a portion of your forces to be inserted at a time and place of the commander’s choosing. The Houthis rolled out Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces capturing an area nearly twice the size of Goa and thousands of soldiers and equipment. But Saudi Arabia’s strategic partner, the United States turned down Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman’s requests for intervention. “The Houthis called us and said they don’t want to fight with us,” Trump said on September 12. Pakistan and Turkiye, two signatories to the August 17 Makkah Defence Agreement, shied away from sending forces to aid the Saudis. The spike in violence is linked to a dip in Trump’s approval ratings— only 32 per cent of respondents felt Trump approved of his job performance. Asked on September 12 when the Iran war would end, President Trump seems to think the Iran war will end ‘right after the mid-terms’. “They (Iran) are trying to hold out as long as they can to complicate the election,” Trump told reporters in Dublin. “But I think people are wise to it.”

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  • Sandeep UnnithanBy Sandeep Unnithan

    Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez: The war for the chokepoints that move the world's oil Iran is shaping the battlefield for a possible third round of conflict with the US. Like whirling dervishes, patterns of conflict are once again building up around the Arabian Peninsula. A ceasefir…

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strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyUNHamas
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The Hanish archipelago fell after hundreds of government-allied forces withdrew, adding to Houthi control of Mokha and Perim Island. More than 80,000 people have been displaced in two weeks of fighting, as the internationally recognised government vows to regroup.

Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthis captured more islands in the southern Red Sea, government and Houthi officials said Monday, strengthening their control of a major maritime shipping route. The capture of the islands of Greater and Lesser Hanish is the latest in the group's swift advance around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key passage for oil shipments that has become even more crucial during the Iran war as the Strait of Hormuz remains under US and Iranian blockades.

Like Hormuz, located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula — is a chokepoint that connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, making it a key waterway for cargo traffic to the Mediterranean Sea.

For more than a month, the Houthis have been striking Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping in the Red Sea, stepping up pressure on global oil prices and boosting Iran's leverage in its war with the US. Forces of the internationally recognised Yemeni government have been attempting to rally and fight back, but the Houthi gains have seemingly come with little resistance.

The Houthis deployed on the Hanish islands, 160 kilometres north of Bab el-Mandeb, after hundreds of government-allied forces withdrew from the archipelago, according to two government officials and a Houthi official. The group officially known as Ansar Allah captured the archipelago after seizing the nearby mainland port city of Mokha and the island of Perim, inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In parallel, they waged an offensive further inland, particularly in the longtime battleground province of Taiz. The Houthis also launched a fresh barrage of missile and drone attacks on Saudi military targets on Monday. The Houthis said they fired dozens of drones and missiles at the kingdom — which backs the Yemeni government — prompting the Saudi Civil Defence to issue brief alerts in the neighbouring cities of Khamis Mushait and Abha.

The Saudi Civil Defence overnight said a Houthi projectile fell in a different area near the border with Yemen along the Red Sea, injuring two people and damaging a mosque and several other buildings. Riyadh did not announce any new attacks targeting the Houthis.

Thousands fleeing fighting in Yemen The Houthis came to power in late 2014 after storming Sana'a and seizing the presidential palace and key military sites, forcing Yemen's government into exile. The group triggered a return to hostilities in Yemen's civil war in July after a UN truce that had largely maintained quiet since 2022, when they let an Iranian plane land in defiance of Saudi control of Yemeni airspace.

Riyadh retaliated by striking the airport, prompting the Houthis to declare a blockade on the kingdom targeting its oil trade in July. Some 150 civilians have been killed in fighting since 3 September, the government's Human Rights Ministry said. More than 200 civilians have been wounded, it said.

Thousands of families have fled their homes in Taiz and nearby provinces in the past day alone, said Khanzad Shah, acting head of Islamic Relief, a charity that operates in the area. "Many of them don't have enough food or water as they had to flee with whatever they could carry.

In some areas, whole villages have reportedly emptied," he said. The UN has estimated that more than 80,000 people have been displaced in the past two weeks, including over 2,000 people who fled by boat to Djibouti. The fighting threatens to reignite a war that for more than a decade brought disaster to Yemen, killing more than 150,000 people and driving the country to the brink of famine.

The internationally recognised government supported by an array of disparate militias controls the south and east, including the key southern port of Aden. The Hanish islands, newly captured by the Houthis, had been controlled by the UAE-backed allies.

However, the UAE dismantled its military infrastructure there earlier this year. For years, Saudi Arabia waged an air campaign against the Houthis, while backing the government and allied militias, yet it has appeared reluctant to throw itself fully back into the war, despite the Houthi attacks on oil infrastructure and shipping.

The Houthis are tied to Tehran's so-called Axis of Resistance — a loose network of militant groups in several countries in the region including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and militias in Iraq, all backed, trained and equipped by the IRGC to varying degrees.

Yemeni government forces to regroup? On Sunday, the Yemeni government's military said it launched airstrikes on Houthi positions in the port city of Mokha, the coastal town of Dhubab and elsewhere in Taiz province. The Houthis reported strikes by the Saudi-backed forces in Taiz province and artillery shelling in Saada province, the birthplace of the Houthi movement on Yemen's northern border with Saudi Arabia.

Sultan al-Arada, a member of the government's presidential leadership council, described the collapse of government forces in Mokha, about 80 kilometres from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and elsewhere on Yemen's west coast as "painful and regrettable." He said in a televised interview aired late Saturday that forces "are currently regrouping and will return to the battle.

" Rashad al-Alimi, who leads the presidential council, sought on Sunday to downplay the defeats as "incidental," according to comments published by the country's state-run SABA news agency. The government "will remain clear and fixed on the goal of retrieving institutions and of reclaiming sovereignty over all national territories," al-Alimi said.

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Oil prices rose approximately 3% on Monday following reported attacks on Saudi infrastructure and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude exceeding $107 per barrel. Concurrently, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi announced the postponement of a scheduled Monday meeting between Iran and regional nations, citing the need for broader consensus.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Reported attacks on Saudi infrastructure and an Iranian cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified supply concerns following the closure of a key Saudi oil pipeline, with claims from state media and armed groups pending independent verification.

These developments have driven Brent and WTI crude futures up approximately 3% to near $108 and $103 per barrel, respectively, amid ongoing US blockade operations and heightened regional tensions.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Former CIA officer Larry Johnson reports that the 18th BRICS summit opened in New Delhi with the unanimous adoption of a declaration endorsing payment infrastructure intended to facilitate cross-border trade outside the Western financial system. While the text details plans to expand local currency settlements and integrate domestic payment systems like India's UPI, the source characterizes this move as a "lifeline" for Iran, which it alleges is currently under US sanctions, a naval blockade, and at war with the United States and Israel.

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