ConflictClarifier

2026 Iran-Gulf Crisis Tracker
CC
Main
Live Data
Analytics
Tools
Reference
Events Archive
strikeApr 16, 2026

Hormuz Crisis “Only Going to Get More Horrific Before It Gets Any Better”: Prof. Laleh Khalili

Summary

Media Options Guests - Laleh Khaliliprofessor of Gulf studies at the University of Exeter. Amid the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, we speak with Laleh Khalili, a professor of Gulf studies who researches the shipping and logistics industry and its impact on the global economy. The U.S. implemented a naval blockade on Iran earlier this week, which Khalili says could lead to its military “firing on ships that it assumes are Iranian or carrying oil from Iran or other cargo to Iran.” Iran, in response, could “interpret this as a belligerent action,” ending the fragile ceasefire agreed to by both parties. “Iran is going to defend itself against this imperial imposition, and how it’s going to do that remains to be seen.” Meanwhile, explains Khalili, shipping disruptions in the Gulf have affected the supply chains of key resources including oil, aluminum, helium and fertilizer. “Transportation costs are going to be higher, so food prices are going to be higher; people’s MRIs are going to be scheduled out by six months … semiconductor manufacturing is going to be affected,” Khalili says. “The crisis is only going to get more horrific before it gets any better. ” Transcript NERMEEN SHAIKH: Iran’s military says it will begin disrupting shipping in the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea if the United States does not end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran’s threat of escalation came as U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces have completely halted maritime trade to and from Iran, with at least 10 vessels forced to turn around. At a press conference today, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. plans to enforce the blockade. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March, disrupting global oil and trade markets. On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was questioned about the Navy blockade of Iranian ports. LIBBEY DEAN: On Iran, is there a timeline for how long this blockade is going to remain in place in the Strait of Hormuz by the United States that President Trump has voiced to you or that you’ve heard among officials? PRESS SECRETARY KAROLINE LEAVITT: Sure. I will never set timelines on behalf of the president of the United States. But with respect to the blockade, as you know, it has been fully implemented, and it’s being enforced against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports. I want to make that point clear. I’ve seen some misreporting on that, as well. This includes all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. And our U.S. forces in the region are supporting the freedom of navigation for vessels that are transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports. So, I know some in the press were confused about that. We are supporting the freedom of navigation, just not with respect to any tanker or vessel that would benefit the economy of Iran as these negotiations continue. AMY GOODMAN: Karoline Leavitt went on to say that the White House is optimistic about continuing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. On Wednesday, a high-level Pakistani delegation traveled to Tehran to lay the groundwork for a possible second round of talks. We go now to London, where we’re joined by Laleh Khalili. She’s a professor of Gulf studies at the University of Exeter and author of several books, including Extractive Capitalism: How Commodities and Cronyism Drive the Global Economy, as well as Sinews of War and Trade: Shipping and Capitalism in the Arabian Peninsula. I can’t think of any time that your work was more relevant than now, Professor. Let’s start off with this naval blockade of Iranian ports entering its fourth day. The blockade is being enforced, according to CENTCOM, by 10,000 U.S. troops, over a dozen warships, dozens of aircraft. Can you explain exactly what’s happening and, for the geographically challenged, the difference between the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and how it’s extending beyond to the Red Sea and the Sea of Oman? LALEH KHALILI: OK. Thank you very much for having me on. And yes, sadly, this is a terrible way for my area of expertise to actually be of relevance. So, first, the geography of the area. The Persian or Arabian Gulf sits between Iran on the north, a sliver of Iraq on the west, and then the various countries that are known as emirates or kingdoms of the Gulf — Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — around the southern shore of the Persian Gulf. At the narrowest bit where the Persian Gulf meets the Gulf of Oman on the other side, that’s the Strait of Hormuz, which, depending on how you measure it, it’s around 25 to 30 nautical miles. So, the Gulf — the Strait of Hormuz lies in the north — between Iran in the north and the Musandam Peninsula, which is an extension of Oman, in the south. So, in fact, the water of the Strait of Hormuz is divided between those. There is no high seas. There is — this is territorial waters divided evenly between the two countries. So, that’s the first thing. The second thing is that, of course, the whole Iran basically lies on the entire northern shore of the Persian Gulf, but also the Gulf of Oman. So it does have capacities. In fact, one of Iran’s big ports, in which India invested, Chabahar, is in the eastern part of Iran in the northern shore of the Gulf of Oman. Red Sea is on the other — the Red Sea is on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, so the Red Sea lies on the western shore of Saudi Arabia. And the way that Iran can disrupt trade in that, in the Red Sea, is through firing missiles, for example, as it has done already, to the port of Yanbu, which is a oil-lifting port for Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea, but also through possibly having its ally, the Ansar Allah of Yemen, which are otherwise also known as the Houthis, disrupting trade there, as they did during the Israeli genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. But there are a couple of things about that blockade question that I think is really important to note. First of all, the U.S. claims to have stopped completely and totally the trade of oil out of Iran, or indeed has blockaded any kind of ships going to or from Iran. In fact, reporting from shipping companies that actually track this stuff comes back that in the four days since the blockade has started, somewhere between 14 to 15 ships have gone through the Strait of Hormuz, at least half of them to Iran. And the way that they have done so is either through routes that obviously the U.S. is incapable of, or not particularly good at, policing, through spoofing their Automatic Identification System — spoofing is this process where the Automatic Identification System is essentially presented as somebody else’s ID system, indicating a different country or different flag country for the ship and — or ships have gone dark, which is something that happens all the time. In fact, when I traveled on a freighter many, many years ago, 10, 11 years ago, one of the things that was most striking when going through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and indeed the Persian Gulf, was the extent to which warships, particularly U.S. or the EU warships, actually turned off their AIS and went dark. So, this is a practice, although a lot of people like to present it as some kind of a nefarious thing. If we are going to think of it as nefarious, in fact, a lot of ships take take part in this practice of going dark, including especially the United States. In fact, this, as in the case of U.S. naval ships, has resulted in all sorts of — in all sorts of problems, collisions, indeed, with U.S. Navy ships. Now, in terms of the actual blockade and the effects it’s having, I was just looking at the Bloomberg today, and forgive me as I read this out, because it was really striking to me. Bloomberg, which is, of course, one of the most reliable financial reporting sites anywhere in the world, reports that we are “moving from short-term jolt to a long-term shock as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market takes place.” So, this is what’s happening. And obviously the blockade continues, because before the war, before the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran started on the 28th of February, somewhere between 140 to 170 ships a day were crossing the Strait of Hormuz; now it’s only 14 to 15. And one of the things that this has meant is that about 10 million barrels per day of oil supply has been lost. This includes — although, of course, the primary people being punished by this shortage of oil are the economies in Asia, in fact, it actually also affects the United States, because some of the last ships that left the Persian Gulf before the war started were actually delivering their supplies now, so we are going to see the effects of the blockade in the coming week or two. And apparently one of these ships actually arrived in California, because, unlike the rest of the United States, California actually does receive oil from the Middle East, and its refineries use a medium-sour oil, a kind of a medium grade, and “sour” meaning high sulfur, a kind of oil that comes specifically from the Middle East. So, the effects of this are, of course, being felt incredibly widely. Another really striking statistic was that an actual real-world barrel of oil was sold in Sri Lanka at more than $280 a barrel. That is double what the price is going elsewhere in the world. And so, the effects of this are incredibly, incredibly striking. What the blockade might mean, of course, is that the U.S. will start firing on ships that it assumes are Iranian or carrying oil from Iran or other cargo to Iran. But, of course, if it does so within the context of the ceasefire, it is violating the ceasefire. And if it does so outside the context of ceasefire, Iran can interpret this as a belligerent action, because, of course, a blockade is exactly that, particularly as it is blockading Iran in its territorial waters. So, the state that we’re in is that, of course, we’re not getting any reliable or credible kind of reporting from the Trump administration whatsoever. And the state of play in the region, of course, is that Iran is going to defend itself against this imperial imposition, and how it’s going to do that remains to be seen. NERMEEN SHAIKH: Laleh, as you mentioned, despite the fact that the U.S. says that its blockade is entirely effective and no ships are getting through, at least 14 to 15 have got through, including several Iranian ships. Now, The Washington Post reported just yesterday that more troops are expected — U.S. troops are expected to arrive in the region, an additional 6,000 to arrive soon and 4,000 to arrive at the end of the month. I mean, if you could say something about what would make and whether those troops — and obviously this is speculation — whether they might help to impose a more total blockade, or, you know, where you see this going? LALEH KHALILI: It’s really difficult to say, again, in part because reporting on this war has been so drastically narrow and that there’s so much misinformation coming from the United States and its allies in the region, both the Arab Gulf emirates, as well as Israel. And, of course, there is little reporting that comes from the Iranian side that is completely and totally verifiable. There’s an interest by everybody to sort of not give the whole picture. In the case of this troops arriving, I wonder how many of those troops that are arriving were the troops that were on the way when, a couple of weeks ago, the U.S. declared that there was going to be airborne troops deployed to Iran. There’s also some question for me, and it’s not a question that only I’m asking: I’m really curious as to why the pilot that was downed, the two pilots that were ostensibly rescued a couple of weeks ago, have not appeared on any television shows — they have not been paraded around as such things are customary — and, indeed, whether or not the story of a pilot rescue was actually cover for a trial run of taking away Iran’s uranium near Isfahan. So, to me, it’s unclear how the arrival even of another 15,000 or 20,000 troops are going to accomplish this, because in addition to, obviously, the troops arriving, you’re going to need to have equipment arriving, as well. You’re going to have to have more ships, etc. And so, this means repositioning, basically, the U.S. naval posture, not just in the Gulf, but also elsewhere in the world, as it shifts its ships to the region. This also indicates, to some extent, that perhaps what the aim of the Trump administration is is to return to hostilities after the end of the ceasefire period. The problem with, of course, this is that there is so much that the sort of the shocks that we saw in the first couple of weeks of the war are going to only accelerate in a number of different areas. So, obviously, the, as I said, about 10 million barrels per day of oil has been taken out of the market. But in addition to that, there was reporting today that there’s going to be an incredible shortage of aluminum, as aluminum smelters in the Gulf have either been hit — and in one case, there was a very dramatically describing instance where an aluminum smelter in Abu Dhabi was hit, and the actual molten aluminum froze in the pipes, making — I mean, they would have to basically replace a lot of the equipment in those. With aluminum, actually, prices being at a four-year high, higher than it has ever been since the Russian war on Ukraine, there’s also China has just banned export of sulfuric acid, which is really incredibly necessary for the production both of fertilizer, but also very more — much more significantly, in the manufacturing of semiconductors. Helium reserves are down massively, because, of course, Qatar was one of the world’s biggest — Ras Laffan plant was the world’s single largest producer of helium, although the U.S. is the largest country producer of helium. And with helium being — the helium amount being down, semiconductor manufacturers, including chip makers for companies like, for example, Nvidia are concerned, because, of course, helium goes to MRI machines and to chip makers. And, of course, given the way that the market is so overblown and there’s such a big bubble around AI, there’s probably going to be a shift from using helium for MRI machines to towards the chip makers, because, of course, that’s going to be, you know, out to the profits in the pockets of the tech bros. And what that indicates, of course, is that this is going to also hit people really hard. So, the effect of what the war is going to be is going to actually be felt even more strongly in the coming weeks, in both inflationary terms, in the inflation in the price of petrol at the petrol pump, but also in other ways, because, of course, transportation costs are going to be higher, so food prices are going to be higher, when people’s MRIs are going to be scheduled out by six months or some such, when semiconductor manufacturing is going to be affected. This is going to be quite significant. The other factor in all of this, of course, is the question of insurance. And a lot of insurance providers have actually either suspended providing insurance to any ships in the whole of the Middle East region, the whole of the sort of region surrounding the Arabian Peninsula, or have increased the war risk premium incredibly, in a very kind of dramatic sort of way. Now, the U.S. has kind of promised, since the beginning of the war, that it is going to cover the insurance via kind of a backstop for insurance. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has talked about how it is moving toward sort of getting — working with private insurance providers to insure about $40 billion worth of ships. But that’s actually like a drop in the bucket, because in the early part of the war, JPMorgan estimated that the actual amount needed for ships that are in the Gulf, as a minimum, is $352 billion, so this would be 10% of the amount of ships. So, again, this combination of both the market, the logic of commercial risk, on the one hand, but, on the other hand, the fact that Iran poses a credible threat to ships in the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman, and both directly and via its allies and Ansar Allah in the Red Sea, means that I actually think that the crisis is only going to get kind of more horrific before it gets any better. NERMEEN SHAIKH: Laleh Khalili, thanks so much for joining us, professor of Gulf studies at the University of Exeter and author of several books, including Extractive Capitalism: How Commodities and Cronyism Drive the Global Economy and Sinews of War and Trade: Shipping and Capitalism in the Arabian Peninsula. When we come back, the ongoing civil war in Sudan enters its fourth year, creating what the United Nations calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Stay with us. [break] NERMEEN SHAIKH: Lila Downs performing “Clandestino.”

Actors involved

USIsraelIranProxyUNEURussiaChina

Sources

  • CurrentsAPI

    Media Options Guests - Laleh Khaliliprofessor of Gulf studies at the University of Exeter. Amid the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, we speak with Laleh Khalili, a professor of Gulf studies who researches the shipping and logistics industry and its impact on the global eco…

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Something Changed in a Single Day: Trump Claimed Backchannel Talks With the IRGC, Then Said No Talks Were Happening at All

○ 1 source

President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Location: Tehran
Georgia Gilholy
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says

○ 1 source

Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

Location: Tehran
Harrison Berger
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Trump says no talks planned with Iran, Tehran says Strait of Hormuz still shut

○ 1 source

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

Location: Tehran
Parisa Hafezi; Katharine Jackson
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN

Iran’s gutted ranks leave loyalists filling critical posts — with one glaring problem

○ 1 source

Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran
Efrat Lachter