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strikeAug 27, 2026

Hormuz oil flows rising as Middle East producers ramp up - TT

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[Stay on top of transportation news: Get TTNews in your inbox.] Hormuz oil flows rising as Middle East producers ramp up Increase is keeping global crude oil prices in check Key Takeaways: - Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose to about 6 million to 8 million barrels a day as Gulf producers increased exports despite ongoing security risks. - Higher regional loadings and shuttle-tanker operations helped restore flows to roughly half prewar levels, helping keep oil prices in check, traders said. - Export gains still face uncertainty as shipping threats persist, cargo transfers take time and Iran’s crude exports remain halted by a U.S. blockade. The flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz is creeping higher as producers across the Middle East boost exports in the face of Iran’s lingering threat to shipping. The increase is keeping global crude oil prices in check. About 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude are now being shipped through the world’s key oil chokepoint, according to estimates from oil traders involved in and monitoring cargo activity. Flows slipped in July, when an onslaught of attacks on supertankers by Iran led to the breakdown of an interim ceasefire and heightened risks to navigation. They remain at roughly half prewar levels. Still, estimates can be wide-ranging and volatile. Some trackers and U.S. officials have suggested even higher volumes, though the security situation remains precarious. Two freighters were struck on Aug. 24, according to the U.K. navy, a reminder that there’s still significant peril when transiting. One factor helping sustain the increase is the highest earnings in the history of the supertanker market, adding for the incentive for shipowners to cross. Either way, there are signs that producers across the region have been moving more oil in recent days. To enable that, a batch of tankers are doing shuttle runs, hauling barrels to just outside the Persian Gulf. Once the shuttle ships get there, their cargoes are then collected by waiting tankers that remain unwilling to go through the strait themselves. Every major regional supplier bar Iran is now selling its barrels for collection outside Hormuz. “In the last few days, more oil seems to be coming out of Hormuz,” Georgios Sakellariou, a freight analyst at Signal Maritime, an analytics company. “If it’s sustainable, crude oil prices will stay down, although recently that has still meant something close to $85 a barrel.” Brent oil futures were trading at about $88 a barrel on Aug. 27, on course for the biggest weekly drop since late June when the interim ceasefire was still helping to keep shipments moving. The resumption of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over ending the war has also stymied prices this week. The boss of Europe’s largest oil refiner said this week he is bearish on the outlook for crude prices, in part as barrels quietly escape Hormuz. A busy day in the Gulf of Oman, where there are at least fifteen sets of STS transfer sessions taking place. We count 25 million barrels of crude oil; plus some refined products. The oil originates from almost every country in the region, minus Iran.#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers pic.twitter.com/TAba26mJiW — TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 25, 2026 A sudden inflow of ships late last week has enabled higher loadings, and it isn’t clear if more ships had entered in recent days to keep that pace going over the coming weeks. Saudi Arabia had the highest number of tankers in several weeks at its export installations in the region on Aug. 25, satellite images gathered by Bloomberg show. A day earlier, loading activity from Iraq’s ports in the region even briefly exceeded above prewar rates. Smaller producers like Qatar and Kuwait are starting moving more too, adding to the momentum. To be clear, it doesn’t mean Saudi Arabia’s total exports are up. The increase from the Persian Gulf has coincided with a drop from its facilities in the Red Sea. Simultaneously, though, the kingdom is loading more oil onto tankers from Sidi Kerir, a port on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast where it owns storage, complicating the tracking of the kingdom’s oil shipments. It’s also unclear whether all the regional exports from the Persian Gulf are on their way to customers yet. They still need to be transferred onto waiting vessels usually near the Omani port of Sohar or Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, a process that can take days. Tankertrackers.com counts shipments to the global market when they pass through the U.S. blockade line, monitoring the Automatic Identification System signals of ships because of restrictions on timely satellite imagery. On that basis, flows over the past seven days stand at just 3.7 million barrels a day, Samir Madani, the firm’s co-founder says. Higher loadings Increases in loadings observed by satellite have taken place across a range of Gulf producers in recent days. They add to heightened flows from the United Arab Emirates, which was the first major producer in the region to really ramp up its exports. Loadings from Iraq’s export installations in the Persian Gulf jumped this week, with seven tankers collecting the nation’s cargoes on Aug. 24. The ships in question had a transportation capacity of about 13 million barrels, according to their dimensions. The prewar norm was six tankers loading at eight berths at any given time. Compounding the pickup is an increase from two of the region’s smaller producers — Qatar and Kuwait. The two countries, which exported a combined 2 million barrels a day of oil before the outbreak of the war, have managed to get shipments back to 70% of pre-conflict levels, according to traders, who asked not to be named as they’re not allowed to speak to media. RoadSigns has reached its 200th episode since its origins in 2018. Hosts Seth Clevenger and Michael Freeze reflect on how trucking tech has evolved and share the trends that have surprised them. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com. Bloomberg has asked all the major Gulf producers about their loading activity over the past week. None responded. For its part, Iran’s exports remain halted by a blockade that the U.S. reimposed when the ceasefire broke down. A key challenge now is to boost exports of fuels like diesel and jet fuel. About 1.6 million barrels a day of the region’s refining capacity remains offline, a significant increase from a year earlier, according to data from IIR Energy. While the crude oil shipping industry has one dominant shipping company helping to organize flows, the South Korean firm Sinokor, that’s not the case for fuels markets, which also requires smaller vessels to collect cargoes. Written by Alex Longley, Julian Lee and Yongchang Chin

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  • Bloomberg NewsBy Bloomberg News

    [Stay on top of transportation news: Get TTNews in your inbox.] Hormuz oil flows rising as Middle East producers ramp up Increase is keeping global crude oil prices in check Key Takeaways: - Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose to about 6 million to 8 million barrels

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Donald Trump’s war on Iran has driven the US military into a severe financial crisis, with the US navy forced to transfer money from its payroll and other sources to cover the costs of combat, according to documents obtained by the Guardian, and interviews with navy officials, contractors and defense analysts.

The US-Israeli operation, which has depleted US munitions stockpiles and prompted retaliatory Iranian strikes that have wrecked strategic bases across the Middle East, is piling pressure on budgets across the military. One Pentagon memo about navy funding seen by the Guardian warns that there are “shortfalls in payroll” accounts due to the department “raiding” them to fund combat operations.

Experts and former officials say the accounts are running dry. “The piggy bank is broken,” said Harlan Ullman, a retired naval officer. Ullman is a member of the National Commission for the Future of the Navy but he said he is not speaking on the commission’s behalf.

One official and one navy contractor said non-emergency maintenance on shore-based facilities has been deferred because of the cash crunch. When Trump started the war on 28 February, it quickly strained the military’s existing budgets – particularly that of the navy, which not only helped launch the initial wave of attacks but was later responsible for an extensive naval blockade.

The White House eventually asked Congress for emergency funding to pay for the war efforts, but prospects that the request will be approved are dim amid the unpopularity of the war. A navy official who was briefed on how the service is planning to address the shortfalls said money is shifted around in imaginative ways.

“The money for payroll,” he said, “was robbed to pay for overseas contingencies and is being backfilled by money that hasn’t been spent. They are backfilling payroll so we get enough money in our paycheck.” The navy’s budget for 2026, almost $300bn, has different batches of money allocated by Congress for various requirements: personnel, shipbuilding, procuring specific weapons systems and “operations and maintenance”, the day-to-day running of the fleet and its bases.

The law limits how money can be rejiggered throughout all those batches of money. The issue has occasionally surfaced in some hearings on Capitol Hill. Susan Collins, in a 21 July hearing of the Senate appropriations committee, said: “I’m told some military services face near-term solvency challenges.

” A staffer said the navy was one of the services Collins was referring to. In a statement, a navy spokesperson said maintenance and operations funds have not been depleted. “The Department of the Navy,” the statement said, “is actively managing its resources to meet current pay obligations on time.

We continue to work closely with Congress to address ongoing operational demands and sustain our personnel and readiness throughout the fiscal year.” Inside the service, the cash shortage is no secret. “They’re just not speaking publicly about it,” said Todd Harrison, a defense analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

“And I suspect that is a deliberate decision of the civilian leaders in the Pentagon, starting at secretary, that this is for political reasons, that they don’t want to look like they’re damaging future military readiness over a war that is becoming increasingly a political liability.

” ‘We face critical shortfalls’ The military knew the crisis was coming. In mid-May, Adm Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations, cautioned Congress that the crunch would hit in July. “The FY ’26 budget didn’t bake in Epic Fury,” he said. “I do fear that I’ll have to start making decisions in the July timeframe on how I do force generation.

That could make differences between how I do exercises, how I do routine operations in order to make sure that I … have the funds necessary to continue the war effort for Epic Fury.” Pete Hegseth has pushed Congress for emergency funding, without which, he said in July, “we face critical shortfalls”.

The defense secretary testified that the Iran war cost $35.7bn, but it’s unclear if that is a full accounting of the war’s costs. When the Trump administration asked Congress for $67bn in emergency funds for the defense department, it didn’t break down how much would be for the navy.

The House passed a $1.15tn defense bill in July and a separate budget authorization that would provide $73bn for the war in Iran, but it’s unlikely either will become law. Ullman noted that during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, funding was more forthcoming from Congress because those conflicts were authorized by a resolution.

“There is no authorization to use force in this case. Is Congress obliged to pay for a conflict it did not authorize?” he said. ‘They ran out of their money’ The fact that the navy is broke – or at least out of money for now – may be something of a slap in the face for Trump.

The president has often evoked what he sees as his affinity with Theodore Roosevelt, who was president from 1901 to 1909 and presided over the expansion of the US navy, deploying the so-called “Great White Fleet” that steamed around the world. Instead of a Great White Fleet, Trump’s administration has embraced the term “Golden Fleet”.

Among his naval ambitions: plans for mammoth “Trump class” ships – the largest battleships in US history. Trump’s micromanagement has included directing the navy to redesign an aircraft carrier so it launches jets with a steam and hydraulic catapult system rather than by an electromagnetic system.

As the Guardian reported, every year since 2017 he has opined about his preferences in carrier launch catapults. At this point, however, funding a war with no clear endgame is the main challenge. A former military officer now working for a navy contracting company, who has been briefed on the shortfalls, said: “They’re fucked.

They shot all their weapons; they trashed all their ships; they ran out of their money.

Location: Iran
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WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military is experiencing a “beyond critical” shortage of advanced missile interceptors in Europe largely driven by President Donald Trump’s war with Iran, a U.S. defense official in Europe and a NATO official told The Associated Press, raising concerns about vulnerabilities in NATO countries to a potential Russian attack.

The U.S. defense official said the most concerning shortfall involves Patriot missile interceptors, which can shoot down Russia’s high-speed ballistic missiles. The NATO official confirmed the low inventories of Patriots among American and NATO forces in Europe.

Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters. In the event of a Russian ballistic missile assault on, for example, a military headquarters or power plant, NATO could be in a similar position to Patriot-starved Ukraine and be forced “to take punch after punch in the mouth,” the U.

S. defense official said. In Europe, the American military “definitely” does not have enough Patriots to stop any possible sustained ballistic missile attack and would have “very limited” capability to defend against a single ballistic missile strike or a stray Russian missile that goes off course, the U.

S. official said. It illustrates the cascading fallout from Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran, a conflict that reaches the six-month mark on Friday. U.S. missile stocks in Europe have been moved to the Middle East, where U.S.

and Gulf allies have fired off significant numbers of interceptors, including Patriots, to thwart Iran’s drones and missiles. Some of those attacks have killed and wounded American troops. Though a Russian ballistic missile attack against NATO countries is not imminently expected, CIA Director John Ratcliffe went to Moscow this week to warn Russia not to attack, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Trump played down the significance of the rare and secretive trip, saying it was “sort of semi-routine.” European and NATO officials say Russia could be in a position to attack countries in the alliance by 2030. Patriot stockpiles are projected to rebound by then.

In the meantime, Russia’s war in Ukraine could hinder its ability to carry out any missile attack on Europe as it would be a challenge for Moscow to fight an air war on two fronts. US Patriot transfers to Ukraine played a role in the drawdown, but the Iran war wasn't expected The Patriot missile shortage is most acutely felt in Ukraine, where officials are begging for more air defense support and where previous U.

S. transfers also have drawn down some supply. Kyiv says only U.S.-made Patriots can stop Russia’s advanced ballistic missiles, which increasingly are getting through Ukrainian defenses, including as part of a barrage overnight into Thursday.

The U.S. supplied hundreds of Patriot missiles to Ukraine over the course of the 4 1/2-year-long conflict, but the Iran war was the tipping point for shrinking inventories, said Ed Arnold, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a military think tank in London.

The supply to Ukraine was planned for and reasonably measured, he said, whereas stocks in the Middle East have been unexpectedly and quickly drained, exposing supply chain constraints. The U.S. military in Europe also is grappling with critical shortages of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a medium-range ballistic missile designed to strike behind enemy lines, the two officials said.

But the overall munitions picture in Europe is less dire than on air defenses alone because some European militaries have their own offensive missiles, such as the Taurus and Storm Shadow, which are both long-range air-launched bunker-busting missiles.

U.S. Army Col. Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, said it is “simply not the case” that the number of Patriot missiles in Europe is beyond critical. NATO, he said, is able to “block punches” and has enough air defense munitions available to defend itself as well as to donate to Ukraine.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement Thursday that claims of U.S. munition shortages “are false.” “We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President’s choosing," Parnell said. "Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests.

” Europe has few alternatives while stocks are low The dearth of Patriot interceptors in Europe would leave few alternatives for shooting down Russia’s more advanced ballistic missiles, which can be combined with swarms of inexpensive drones to overwhelm defenses, experts say.

Ukraine and some allies already use systems that can destroy slower-moving drones without expensive missiles. But ballistic missiles are a challenge because they dive steeply toward targets at more than five times the speed of sound, leaving little time to stop them.

The Patriot system tracks the missile, predicts its path and launches within minutes, all while carrying out complex calculations to ensure the interceptor finds its target. One Patriot battery can only cover a limited area: for example, a small military base but not a whole city.

One alternative could be France and Italy’s SAMP/T NG air defense system. France has promised to speed up the delivery of the system — the upgraded version of the current SAMP/T — to Ukraine, which the manufacturer says is better able to counter ballistics.

The new iteration, however, has not yet been battle tested and the current version of the SAMP/T has a smaller range than the Patriot. While U.S. and European militaries have warships that can serve as mobile air defense, they may be too far from a target to protect it and could risk getting sunk.

Patriot stocks have plunged during the Iran war Ukraine has received Patriots from American and European stockpiles since Russia's 2022 invasion, with the U.S. providing about 600 of the interceptors during the Biden administration, said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel who is now senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

But the greatest expenditure has been during the Iran conflict, which has used up 65% of U.S. Patriots, amounting to roughly 1,500 of the nation's 2,330 interceptors, CSIS says. About 600 missiles, including those destined for Europe, should be made this year, with a production goal of 2,000 Patriot missiles a year set for 2030, Cancian said.

NATO says Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility is expected to open in Germany in September, with deliveries possibly beginning early next year. The first deliveries should go to countries that have already placed orders, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain, the U.

S. defense official said. But for now, that means some countries, such as Germany, have bought expensive Patriot systems but are in the “ridiculous” position of not having any ammunition to fire from them, said Arnold of the London think tank.

Germany's defense ministry said it does not comment on stockpiles. Russia also has limitations Moscow likely cannot carry out a sustained air assault on a NATO target while it launches almost nightly attacks on Ukraine, Arnold said.

Ukraine's recent strikes into Russia also have exposed weaknesses in Russia's air defenses, which could prompt Putin to think twice about provoking a retaliatory attack. “The uncomfortable truth is possibly the best air defense that we have is Russian constraints,” Arnold said.

___ Burrows reported from London. Associated Press writer Konstantin Toropin contributed to this report.

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Rabobank strategist Bas van Geffen reports that CIA Director Ratcliffe engaged in a brief dialogue with Moscow regarding potential Russian support for Iran. Concurrently, ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure and a buildup of Russian forces in Belarus are increasing pressure on President Putin, though experts caution that further escalation remains hypothetical despite rising energy market volatility.

Location: Tehran