Hormuz traffic doubles; Israel lobby takes down Thomas Massie; Nigerian military claims joint U.S. strikes killed 175

Summary

Hormuz traffic doubles; Israel lobby takes down Thomas Massie; Nigerian military claims joint U.S. strikes killed 175 Drop Site Daily: May 20, 2026 Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warns war could “extend beyond the region.” Strait of Hormuz transit traffic more than doubled last week. Iran war strike triggers oil spill at protected Persian Gulf wildlife sanctuary. U.S. Treasury sanctions 50-plus Iranian-linked entities. UAE says drone that struck Barakah was launched from Iraq. Foreign governments dump U.S. Treasuries in March. NYT: U.S. and Israel secretly planned to install former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s leader. Israeli strike on Lebanese town kills at least 11 civilians. Hezbollah drones seriously impeding Israeli military operations. Israeli strike on civilian car near Gaza City hospital kills one, wounds four. Israeli strike severs water line serving displaced Palestinians in Khan Younis. FT: Israel seizes 1,000 sq km across Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Israel intercepts all vessels in Gaza-bound flotilla in international waters. Israeli minister posts video showing abuse of detained flotilla members. AIPAC-backed challenger defeats Rep. Thomas Massie in most expensive House primary in history. Democratic Socialists of America member Chris Rabb wins Democratic primary in Philly. Senate advances bill forcing Trump to seek congressional approval for Iran war. DOJ permanently bars examination of Trump family returns. Acting AG Todd Blanche says DOJ will not recommend pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell. NATO fighter jet shoots down Ukrainian drone over Estonia. 15,850 have died in Ukraine, UN says. Car bomb kills one soldier, wounds 21 near Syrian Defence Ministry in Damascus. Somaliland to open embassy in Jerusalem. Drone strike kills 28 at crowded Sudan market. UAE and France renew defense cooperation agreement. U.S. expresses “concern” about protests in Bolivia. China secretly trained Russian personnel who fought in Ukraine, Reuters finds. FROM DROP SITE: Drop Site is now live on WhatsApp. Get our latest reporting, podcasts, and breaking news, delivered directly. Join the channel here. This is Drop Site Daily, our free daily news recap. We send it Monday through Friday. Today’s edition is being sent to more than 750,000 subscribers. Help us grow that number by forwarding and recommending this newsletter. 🛒 Get your “Drop [Site] News/Not Bombs” Hoodie here: Iran and Ceasefire IRGC warns war could “extend beyond the region”: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned on Wednesday that war would extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume attacks on Tehran. “If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread far beyond the region, and our devastating blows will crush you,” the IRGC said in a statement carried by the Tasnim news agency. “The American-Zionist enemy...must know that despite the offensive carried out against us using the full capabilities of the world’s two most expensive armies, we have not deployed the full power of the Islamic revolution.” Trump, Vance talk delayed strikes: President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. could attack Iran again if no deal to end the war is reached in the coming days. “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time,” Trump said. In separate remarks, J.D. Vance said Trump told him the U.S. was “locked and loaded,” although it doesn’t “want to go down that pathway” at the present moment. Strait of Hormuz transit traffic more than doubled last week: Strait of Hormuz transit traffic rose to 54 vessels in the week of May 11–17, more than double the previous week’s 23 vessels. Ten of these ships were owned by Chinese companies, a development which corresponds with Tehran’s announcement last week that it would permit Chinese vessels to transit. Two Chinese tankers, Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, departed Wednesday, according to Reuters. Another vessel, owned by the UAE’s state petroleum company, crossed with its tracking transponder switched off, according to data from Lloyd’s List. The partial rebound remains a fraction of pre-war levels—before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February, roughly 3,000 vessels transited monthly, carrying an estimated 15 million barrels of oil daily. South Korean tanker passing through Hormuz: A South Korean oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the first time a Korea-managed ship transits the strait since the Iran war began. “Consultations with Iranian authorities were completed, and the vessel began sailing yesterday. It is passing through the strait very cautiously,” South Korea’s foreign minister, Cho Hyun, said, according to the Seoul-based Yonhap news agency. Iran war strike triggers oil spill at protected Persian Gulf wildlife sanctuary: An attack on a refinery on Lavan Island on April 9 has caused an oil spill that has reached Shidvar Island, AP reports. Shivdar is a protected wildlife breeding ground in the Persian Gulf; satellite imagery and videos show oil washing ashore on the island and dead birds, crabs, and fish covered in crude. The Lavan oil refinery came under attack last month hours after the ceasefire deal was announced. Iranian media outlets alleged the UAE carried out the attack, though Abu Dhabi did not acknowledge the strike. U.S. Treasury sanctions 50-plus Iranian-linked entities: The U.S. Treasury Department announced sweeping new sanctions targeting more than 50 companies, individuals, and oil tankers allegedly linked to Iran’s shadow banking and petroleum export networks as part of the Trump administration’s “Economic Fury” pressure campaign against Tehran. The designations include Amin Exchange—an Iranian foreign currency firm Treasury accused of helping sanctioned Iranian banks and petrochemical companies move hundreds of millions of dollars through front companies in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Hong Kong—as well as 19 vessels Washington claims transported Iranian oil, LPG, methanol, and petrochemicals in violation of U.S. sanctions. Iran amasses floating oil stockpile as U.S. naval blockade traps crude exports: Satellite imagery shows a sharp buildup of aging tankers around Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, as the U.S. naval blockade—in effect since April 13—traps crude exports in the Gulf, the Financial Times reported. About 39 tankers carrying Iranian oil and petrochemicals are now stranded in the Gulf, up from 29 before the blockade began, with another 13 suspected tankers identified near Chabahar port, according to United Against Nuclear Iran; CENTCOM says it has forced 88 ships to turn back to Iranian ports and disabled four tankers, while data firm Kpler says Iranian crude stored on tankers in the region has surged 65% since the war began, reaching 42 million barrels. UAE says drone that struck Barakh was launched from Iraq, condemns attacks at the UN: The UAE’s defense ministry said Tuesday that six drones had been launched against it from Iraqi territory in the past 48 hours, including the drone that struck an electric generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant. Iraq condemns drone attacks on Saudi Arabia: The Iraqi government issued a statement Tuesday condemning a recent drone attack on Saudi Arabia—which Riyadh said originated from Iraqi airspace—and offering to cooperate with Saudi authorities in investigating the incident, while noting that Iraqi air defense systems and surveillance equipment had detected no evidence of drones being launched from its territory. Foreign governments dump U.S. Treasuries in March: Foreign governments cut their U.S. Treasury holdings to $9.25 trillion in March from $9.49 trillion in February as the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the rising cost of crude oil sent Asian currencies tumbling and forced central banks to liquidate dollar reserves to fund currency intervention. China reduced its holdings roughly 6% to $652.3 billion, the lowest level since September 2008. Japan, the largest single foreign holder of American treasuries, shed approximately $47 billion of its stock, bringing its total holdings to $1.191 trillion. Foreign investors reportedly logged a $142.1 billion valuation loss on long-term Treasury holdings in March, according to CNBC. NYT: U.S. and Israel secretly planned to install Ahmadinejad as Iran’s leader: The United States and Israel secretly planned to install former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as leader of a post-war Iranian government, but the plan collapsed after an Israeli airstrike intended to free him from house arrest by killing his Revolutionary Guard minders instead injured him on the war’s first day, the New York Times reported. The attack reportedly left Ahmadinejad disillusioned with the plan, and his current whereabouts are unknown. Lebanon Casualty count: At least 3,073 people have been killed, and 9,362 wounded in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since March 2, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Israeli strikes continue on Tuesday despite “ceasefire”: Israeli strike kills at least 11 civilians in Deir Kanoun: An Israeli strike on the town of Deir Qanoun in the Tyre District of southern Lebanon killed at least 11 civilians and wounded 3 others Tuesday, with videos from the scene showing extensive destruction as rescue crews and residents searched through collapsed buildings, journalist Courtney Bonneau reported. Six killed in attacks across Lebanon: Four people were killed when a warplane leveled a home in Kfar Sir. Two people were also killed in separate drone strikes on a vehicle in Harouf, and a motorcycle near Bint Jbeil. Historic district in Lebanon’s Nabatieh hit by Israeli warplanes: Israeli warplanes struck the historic Saray district of Nabatieh on Tuesday, damaging heritage homes, traditional markets, civilian shops, and a historic mosque, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported. Israel bombs southern Lebanon village of Kfour for first time: Israeli warplanes dropped eight heavy bombs along the eastern side of Kfour, a partly Christian village in southern Lebanon that had not been evacuated, in the village’s first-ever bombing, journalist Hadi Hoteit reported on Tuesday. Illegal use of phosphorus: Israeli forces deployed incendiary phosphorus bombs against farmers harvesting watermelons at the al-Mansouri junction in the Tyre district, Al Jazeera reported. Hezbollah drones seriously impeding Israeli military operations: Hezbollah’s explosive drones have severely restricted Israeli freedom of movement in southern Lebanon—forcing roughly 80% of military assaults to be conducted outside of daylight hours—according to Israel’s public broadcaster KAN. Israel has approved a roughly $700 million emergency counter-drone program to develop mobile defense systems, expanded radar coverage, and anti-drone munitions. Retired Lebanese Brigadier General Bassam Yassin told The New Arab, however, that the fiber-optic-guided drones employed by the group—which carry near-zero radar signatures and are immune to electronic jamming—will remain extremely difficult to intercept. Palestine Casualty count: Over the last 24 hours, one Palestinian was killed and 16 were injured across Gaza. The total recorded death toll since October 7, 2023 has risen to 72,773 killed, with 172,723 injured. Since October 11, the first full day of the so-called ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 881 Palestinians in Gaza and wounded 2,621, while 776 bodies have been recovered from under the rubble, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. Israeli strike on civilian car near Gaza City hospital kills one, wounds four: An Israeli strike hit a civilian car on Al-Shuhada Street near the Friends of the Patient Hospital west of Gaza City on Tuesday, killing one person and wounding four others, Drop Site contributor Mohammed Ahmed reported. Eyewitness Khaled Sabeeh described the aftermath as civilians rushed to pull the wounded from the vehicle. “It’s clear that the war is not over—it’s all a lie,” Sabeeh told Drop Site, adding, “The attacks are increasing every day.” Israeli strike severs water line serving displaced Palestinians in Khan Younis: An Israeli strike severed a water line serving displaced Palestinians in eastern Khan Younis, Gaza on Tuesday, Reuters reported. “It was empty land. We don’t know why they bombed,” one displaced Palestinian told the wire service. FT: Israel seizes 1,000 sq km across Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria: Israel has occupied around 1,000 square kilometers of territory in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria since October 2023, according to the Financial Times. The land—roughly five per cent of Israel’s 1949 borders—includes large areas of southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces have established a “security zone,” almost two-thirds of Gaza now under Israeli occupation as it pushes past the agreed-upon “Yellow Line,” and positions inside Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. The moves have driven large-scale displacement, widespread destruction, and worsening humanitarian conditions—as Israeli strikes, artillery fire, raids and detentions continue across all three. The IDF declined to comment on the calculations, but said troops’ deployment “is carried out in line with the directives of the political echelon and ongoing operational situational assessments.” Israel intercepts all vessels in Gaza-bound flotilla in international waters: Israeli forces intercepted all vessels in the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters Tuesday, ending the convoy’s attempt to break Israel’s siege of Gaza, organizers reported. The 54 civilian boats carrying 428 participants had departed Marmaris, Turkey four days ago before being surrounded roughly 250 nautical miles off Gaza’s coast. All five Freedom Flotilla Coalition vessels were also intercepted. Israeli minister posts video showing abuse of detained flotilla members: Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted Wednesday on X a video showing mistreatment of detained flotilla activists in Ashdod Port alongside the caption “Welcome to Israel.” In the footage, Ben-Gvir is seen waving an Israeli flag while declaring, “Welcome to Israel! We are the owners of the house.” The footage also shows an activist who was shouting “Free, free Palestine,” being shoved to the ground and told to “Shut up.” Other clips show detainees forced to kneel on the floor with their faces lowered to the ground, and detainees roughly escorted with their heads bent and hands zip-tied. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani issued a statement demanding an apology, calling the handling of the detainees a “total disrespect” for Italy’s requests and the personal dignity of its citizens who are part of the flotilla. Adalah—a Palestinian-run legal center in Israel—said in a statement, “Israel is employing a criminal policy of abuse and humiliation against activists seeking to confront Israel’s ongoing crimes against the Palestinian people. These events come after Adalah documented similar patterns of ill-treatment against activists in previous flotilla missions, for which Israel faced zero accountability.” U.S. sanctions four flotilla organizers: The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned four activists Tuesday—two representatives of the Popular Conference for Palestinians Abroad and two from the Palestinian prisoners solidarity network Samidoun, based in Jordan, Spain, and Belgium—alleging without evidence that the Gaza-bound flotilla organizers were acting in support of Hamas, as Israeli forces simultaneously intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the flotilla a “pro-terror” effort, while organizer Huwaida Arraf rejected the characterization as “ridiculous,” and Samidoun called the sanctions “the latest manifestation of the ongoing U.S. genocidal war on the Palestinian people.” Musk announces Tesla autonomous driving rollout in Israel: Elon Musk announced plans to roll out Tesla’s autonomous driving technology in Israel “soon” while addressing the country’s International Smart Mobility Summit via video link from Texas on Sunday, praising Israel’s technology sector and describing artificial intelligence as the future of transport, according to The New Arab. Musk, who visited Israel in November 2023, reversed an earlier proposal last week to provide Starlink access to aid groups working in Gaza, after Israeli government officials threatened retaliation. U.S. News By Julian Andreone, with Ryan Grim. Have a tip on Capitol Hill? Email Andreone at [email protected]. Tuesday’s election results: AIPAC-backed challenger defeats Rep. Thomas Massie in most expensive House primary in history: Republican Rep. Thomas Massie lost his Kentucky primary Tuesday to former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein after AIPAC and allied pro-Israel groups poured more than $15.8 million into the race, making it the most expensive House primary in U.S. history at roughly $32 million in total spending—surpassing AIPAC’s 2024 spending to oust Rep. Jamaal Bowman. Massie, one of the few Republicans to vote against U.S. military support for Israel and a consistent critic of the Iran war, framed the race as a referendum on foreign influence in Congress, telling supporters in his concession speech that his opponents had tried to “buy the seat.” DSA member Chris Rabb wins Democratic primary in Philly: Penn. state Rep. Chris Rabb, a Democratic Socialists of America member endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, won the Democratic primary Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District—spanning parts of west and north Philadelphia—defeating state Sen. Shariff Street and pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford for the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Dwight Evans, Decision Desk HQ projected. With no Republican running in a district Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 77 percentage points in 2024, Rabb is the heavy favorite to win in November. American Priorities, a pro-Palestinian super PAC launched to counter AIPAC, also backed Rabb. Republican primary for Georgia governor heads to runoff: Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, endorsed by Trump, and healthcare billionaire Rick Jackson—who has spent $80 million of his own money on ads casting himself in Trump’s mold—will advance to a June 16 Republican runoff for governor after no candidate cleared 50% in Tuesday’s crowded primary, NBC News projected. The runoff winner will face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the Democratic nomination Tuesday. Trump-backed Rep. Andy Barr wins Kentucky Republican Senate primary for McConnell’s seat: Seven-term Rep. Andy Barr won the Kentucky Republican Senate primary Tuesday with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, defeating former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron and other candidates for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, NBC News projected. Barr is a heavy favorite in the general election against Democratic nominee Charles Booker in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1992. Senate advances bill forcing Trump to seek congressional approval for Iran war: The Senate advanced legislation Tuesday aimed at forcing President Donald Trump to end the war with Iran or seek congressional authorization, passing 50-47 after Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana flipped his vote days after losing his primary race, which Trump had declined to support. The measure exposed growing Republican fractures over the war, with Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.), Susan Collins (Maine), and Lisa Murkowski (Ala.) joining Cassidy in support, while Democratic Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) voted with most Republicans against the measure. DOJ permanently bars examination of Trump family returns: A one-page addendum posted to the Justice Department website Tuesday revealed that the IRS is now “forever barred and precluded” from pursuing tax examinations of President Donald Trump, his family members, affiliated individuals, and related businesses for all returns filed before Monday’s settlement—an expansion of the nearly $1.8 billion deal announced the previous day that made no mention of resolving Trump’s longstanding tax disputes. Two former IRS commissioners condemned the move, with John Koskinen calling it a “terrible precedent” that amounts to a government windfall for Trump. Acting AG Blanche says DOJ will not recommend pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell: Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee Tuesday that he will not recommend a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell, the convicted sex trafficker who aided Jeffrey Epstein’s abuse of underage girls. Trump has not ruled out a Maxwell pardon, saying last year he is “allowed” to do it. Hawley calls for universal stock trading ban: Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri called Tuesday for a universal ban on individual stock trading covering all federal officials—including the president, vice president, and Supreme Court justices—after a financial disclosure showed President Donald Trump or his investment managers made more than 3,700 stock trades in the first quarter of the year involving major corporations with business before his administration. Vice President JD Vance pushed back, saying Trump does not personally execute trades but has independent wealth advisers managing his money, and said the administration supports banning congressional stock trading. Trump endorses Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Republican runoff: President Donald Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in next week’s Texas Senate primary runoff, saying on Truth Social that Cornyn was not supportive of him “when times were tough.” Paxton, who has survived adultery allegations, felony securities fraud indictment charges, and an impeachment by members of his own party, holds a narrow lead in independent polls but trails Democratic candidate James Talarico in several general election matchups. Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm grows to $3.5 billion on “America First” pitch: Donald Trump Jr.’s Palm Beach-based venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has grown from roughly $200 million to $3.5 billion in assets by pitching an “America First” investment strategy centered on what it calls patriotic capitalism, the Financial Times reported. The firm, which has invested in artificial intelligence, defense, and technology companies, including Databricks, Groq, Elon Musk’s xAI, SpaceX, and Anduril, aims to reach $10 billion in assets, with one partner telling the FT the firm hopes to become a Carlyle Group-style powerhouse leveraging deep political connections in Washington to build influence and attract capital. Progressive Caucus backs Campa-Najjar in California’s 48th District: The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC endorsed Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar in California’s 48th District on Tuesday, backing the Palestinian American candidate over San Diego city council member Marni von Wilpert, who has the backing of the pro-Israel group Democratic Majority for Israel, Semafor reported. A recent SurveyUSA poll showing two Republicans leading the field has raised alarm about a Democratic lockout in a district Kamala Harris narrowly carried. Judge bars immigration arrests at Manhattan courthouses: A federal judge ruled Monday that immigration agents can no longer make arrests in and around three Manhattan buildings where immigration proceedings are held except in exceptional circumstances, finding that individuals have a serious interest in attending removal proceedings and pursuing asylum claims “without fear of arrest.” The judge had declined to ban the practice last year, but that Tuesday’s ruling was necessary to “correct a clear error and prevent a manifest injustice.” Other International News China hosts Putin for high-level summit after U.S. visit: Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Wednesday, days after hosting President Donald Trump for a U.S.-China summit. During the meeting, Xi described China-Russia ties as a force of “calm amid chaos” and criticized “unilateral hegemonic currents” running through international affairs. Xi also called for enhanced “comprehensive strategic coordination” between China and Russia. Putin and Xi signed a joint statement reaffirming their close ties and support for a “multipolar world.” NATO fighter jet shoots down Ukrainian drone over Estonia: A Romanian F-16 deployed with NATO shot down a Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia on Tuesday after authorities determined its trajectory was aimed at Russian targets. The apparently accidental intrusion by the drone came as Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that Ukraine had been advised to keep attack trajectories as far from NATO territory as possible. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service claimed, without providing evidence, that Ukraine is preparing to launch drone attacks against Russia from Baltic territory and warned Latvia of “just retribution” for any such attack. Strikes in Ukraine continue: At least six people in Ukraine were killed Tuesday in Russian strikes on Pryluky, Hlukhiv, and Buryn, including a 15-year-old boy. Peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow remain stalled following the collapse of a Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire earlier this month. 15,580 have died in Ukraine, UN says: 15,850 people have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since February 2022, including 791 children, the Europe and Central Asia director at the UN’s Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs told the Security Council on Tuesday. The “actual figures are likely significantly higher,” he said. Car bomb kills one soldier, wounds 21 near Syrian Defence Ministry in Damascus: A car bomb exploded near a Syrian Defence Ministry building in the Bab Sharqi district of Damascus on Tuesday, killing at least one soldier and wounding at least 21 people, Syrian state media reported. Army personnel had discovered an improvised explosive device planted near the site and were attempting to defuse it when the car bomb detonated. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Syria preserves ban on Israeli goods in new customs law: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa issued a new customs decree Monday updating much of the country’s trade regulations and maintaining the country’s longstanding ban on Israeli products. The decree also established financial penalties for importing from Israel or any country that “has been subject to an economic boycott,” with fines set at six to eight times the value of seized goods. Israeli forces have carried out near-daily incursions into southern Syria. Somaliland to open embassy in Jerusalem: Somaliland’s ambassador said on Tuesday that the breakaway region will open an embassy in Jerusalem and that Israel will open an embassy in Hargeisa “soon,” which the Israeli foreign minister confirmed in a post on X. Israel became the first country in the world to recognize Somaliland’s independence in December. Somaliland’s embassy would become the eighth located in Jerusalem—a city whose status as the capital of the country remains contested; 96 other embassies operate in Tel Aviv. Drone strike kills 28 at crowded Sudan market: A drone strike on a crowded market in the town of Ghubaysh in Sudan’s West Kordofan province killed 28 people and wounded dozens Tuesday morning, according to the Emergency Lawyers rights group. The attack was blamed on the Sudanese army, and claimed the attack struck two Rapid Support Forces combat vehicles near the market and killed only combatants. Drone attacks in the country killed at least 880 civilians between January and April, according to the UN. Smuggled mining explosives kill five: At least five people were killed Monday when a truck and box vehicle carrying smuggled explosives used in artisanal gold mining detonated in the Abu Talha area west of Kassala city in eastern Sudan, according to the Sudan Tribune. Smuggling is common in Sudan’s artisanal mining industry, the outlet claims, as a means of avoiding official inspections. UAE and France renew defense cooperation agreement: The United Arab Emirates and France renewed their bilateral defense cooperation agreement Tuesday in Toulouse, where French Armed Forces Minister Catherine Vautrin met with UAE Minister of State for Defense Affairs Mohamed bin Mubarak bin Fadhel Al Mazrouei. The renewal follows the UAE’s withdrawal from a proposal to jointly fund development of the next-generation Rafale F5 fighter jet—leaving France to shoulder the full projected cost of roughly $5.7 billion after Abu Dhabi had been expected to cover as much as $4 billion. France, which has an estimated 750 to 900 military personnel stationed at UAE bases and has been assisting the country in intercepting Iranian drones. Last Friday, France announced its Charles de Gaulle carrier strike group would soon arrive in the Strait of Hormuz. Nigeria military claims joint strikes with U.S. killed 175 Islamic State militants: The Nigerian military announced on Tuesday that it had killed 175 militants in recent days in its joint campaign with the United States against the Islamic State West African Province. The announcement came after the U.S. military’s Africa Command (AFRICOM) said it had carried out attacks on Sunday in coordination with the Nigerian government. Kenya suspends transport strike over fuel hikes: A Kenyan public transport strike over fuel price hikes triggered by the Iran war was suspended for one week on Tuesday after the government reached an interim agreement with the bus and minibus owner association. The government offered a 10-shilling-per-liter diesel reduction—far short of the 46-shilling cut operators demanded. More talks are expected in the interim. South African electrical utility threatens to cut power to Johannesburg: South Africa’s state electricity company Eskom warned Tuesday it may reduce or terminate power supply to Johannesburg—the country’s largest city—as a result of the city’s 5.26 billion rand ($315 million) debt. The city and its utility have a further 1.58 billion rand due June 5. Eskom claims that it has worked with the municipality for more than two years to resolve its unpaid debts, and that the city repeatedly defaulted. The announcement follows a recent comment from South Africa’s National Treasury expressing “serious concern” about the state of Johannesburg’s finances. U.S. expresses “concern” about protests in Bolivia: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said on Tuesday he is “very concerned” about escalating unrest in Bolivia after speaking with President Rodrigo Paz, calling nationwide protests against the eight-month-old government’s austerity measures a “coup financed by an unholy alliance between politics and organized crime.” Protests that began with strikes in early May have grown into a nationwide movement of labor unions, miners, transport workers, and rural groups pressing Paz—whose government ended nearly two decades of leftist rule in November—to roll back austerity measures and address the rising costs of living in the country. Venezuelan government to release 300 prisoners this week: Venezuela’s National Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez announced Tuesday that 300 prisoners would be released between Monday and Friday, including three police officers tied to events surrounding the 2002 coup that briefly ousted Hugo Chavez who have been held since 2003, people with medical conditions, and those over the age of 70, Reuters reported. China secretly trained Russian personnel who fought in Ukraine, Reuters finds: The Chinese military covertly trained approximately 200 Russian military personnel at facilities in Beijing, Nanjing, and Shijiazhuang in late 2025 under an agreement signed by senior officers from both countries in July of that year, Reuters reported on Tuesday. The training included education in drone warfare, electronic warfare, armored infantry operations, and counter-drone measures—and some of those trained subsequently returned to fight in Ukraine, according to three European intelligence agencies cited by the report and corroborated by documents seen by Reuters. Rwanda signs nuclear cooperation agreements with U.S.: Rwanda signed civil nuclear cooperation agreements with the United States and the U.S. company Holtec International on Tuesday, as part of a broader push by the U.S. to position American companies as global exporters of nuclear technology to “responsible partners.” The East African nation is expected to acquire and deploy the company’s Holtec’s SMR-300 small modular reactors, which are smaller than conventional nuclear reactors, by the early 2030s. South Africa currently has Africa’s only operational nuclear power plant. More from Drop Site Jihadist-separatist offensive pushes Mali’s military junta toward collapse: A coordinated April 25 offensive by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and Tuareg separatists from the Azwad Liberation Front killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara, briefly seized the military garrison town of Kati for 12 hours, forced Russia’s Africa Corps to retreat from Kidal, and triggered a blockade on the capital Bamako that has caused fuel and food shortages. “We can no longer go out to our fields, and hunger is beginning to set in. We are at our breaking point,” one Malian told Drop Site. Read more about Mali’s insurgency, the Russian mercenaries in the country, and the government response in Mamadou Diallo’s full report for Drop Site here. Drop Site’s Murtaza Hussain discusses our latest reporting on Pakistan—and particularly, the leaked cyphers we published in full—in a video here. The full report by Murtaza, Ryan Grim, and Waqas Ahmed is available here. In this week’s Drop Site’s livestream, Jeremy Scahill discusses the state of the war and ceasefire in Iran with Negar Mortazavi, fellow at the Center for International Policy and host of the “Iran Podcast.” Then Ryan Grim and Maysa Mustafa talk with photographer Misan Harriman and Yale researcher Nathaniel Raymond about the latest from Sudan. The stream concludes with Maysa, Ryan, and Drop Site Capitol Hill correspondent Julian Andreone outlining Tuesday’s primary elections. The full stream is available here: If you want to continue getting this newsletter, you don’t have to do anything. But if this is too much—we do try to be mindful of your inbox—you can unsubscribe from this newsletter while continuing to get the rest of our reporting. Just go into your account here at this link, scroll down, and toggle the button next to “Drop Site Daily“ to the off setting. It looks like this:

Perspectives

Iranian Official

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has affirmed Iran's sovereign right to defend its territorial integrity and regional interests against mounting US-Israeli aggression, warning that any imposed war risks spreading beyond the region. Transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled amid these threats, while US sanctions on over 50 Iranian-linked entities and reported secret plots to install a compliant leader expose foreign interference in Iran's affairs. Hezbollah's effective resistance continues to impede Israeli operations, underscoring the failure of external aggression to undermine Iran's steadfast position.

Israeli

Amid mounting existential threats from Iran's IRGC and its proxy networks—including Hezbollah drones impeding operations and Iraqi-launched strikes—Israel has conducted necessary defensive operations across Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria to secure its borders and neutralize imminent dangers. The doubling of Strait of Hormuz traffic reflects Tehran's readiness to escalate beyond the region, while flotilla interceptions and territorial buffers remain essential to counter arms flows and encirclement.

Neutral

Transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz more than doubled last week following warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of potential regional escalation, with U.S. Treasury sanctions imposed on over 50 Iran-linked entities. Israeli strikes were reported in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, including one that killed at least 11 civilians in a Lebanese town and another that severed a water line in Khan Younis; the New York Times reported that the U.S. and Israel had secretly planned to install former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s leader. An AIPAC-backed challenger defeated Rep. Thomas Massie in a House primary, while the Nigerian military stated that joint U.S. strikes had killed 175 people.

Western

Coalition forces have intensified monitoring of doubled Strait of Hormuz traffic amid Iranian threats to regional shipping, while U.S. sanctions target over 50 Iranian-linked entities to neutralize proliferation risks. Israeli operations have conducted precision strikes across Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria to dismantle terrorist networks, intercept Gaza-bound flotillas, and counter Hezbollah drone attacks, securing expanded defensive perimeters. Pro-Israel advocacy contributed to the primary defeat of Rep. Thomas Massie, aligning congressional support with strategic objectives against Iranian influence.

Sources

Drop Site NewsBy Drop Site News

Related events

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US

○ 1 source

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US This is ‘the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran’, said US Vice-President J.D. Vance Tehran has agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country, US Vice-President J.

D. Vance said on Monday, after a first round of US-Iran talks towards ending the Middle East war. “The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country,” Vance told reporters at Switzerland’s isolated Burgenstock resort, where his talks with Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf opened on Sunday.

“That is a major milestone for the American people and the first step in permanently denuclearising or permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme in Iran,” he said. The IAEA estimates that Iran had 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – close to the level needed for a bomb.

Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA after Israel and the US launched a previous wave of attacks in June 2025, and inspectors have not seen the material since.

Agence France-Presse

Jun 22, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyEUChina

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

○ 1 source

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Futures are modestly lower coming off the US holiday weekend, after equities finished higher last week with both Dow and Russell clocking new ATHs and SPX finishing in the green for the 11th time in the last 12 weeks. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts are higher by 0.1% with chips outperforming as usual while hyperscalers, aka "check payers" down as all Mag 7 are lower with TSLA (-1.4%) and GOOGL (-1.6%; Google’s DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic) being the biggest laggards. Overseas, Asian markets mostly higher overnight with China and Japan the big gainers, up over 1.5%. European markets higher, up ~0.3%. Big development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Donald Trump again threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, & US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the UK, PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. Bond yields are 2-4bp higher, while the USD is largely unchanged. WTI crude fell $-0.58 to $75.27 reversing all earlier gains while Brent traded around $79. Gold and silver are higher as is bitcoin. There is little on the corporate calendar and scant macro data, leaving traders with little direction until Micron’s earnings due Wednesday and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday take center stage. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

In premarket trading, SpaceX shares slid more than 5% in premarket trading, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. Meanwhile, the semi meltup continues: chipmakers including Intel rallied. Getty Images soared more than 300% after inking a display partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Here are the notable premarket movers:

Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.4% Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) climbs 48% after AbbVie agreed to buy the company for $10.9 billion to bolster its anti-inflammatory portfolio amid growing competition for its best-selling drug. Arcosa (ACA) gains 7% after CRH said it has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the provider of building materials in an all-cash transaction for $150 per share. Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) gains 32% after announcing positive topline results from a Phase 3 study evaluating a single dose of an orally disintegrating tablet in adults with major depressive disorder. Fervo Energy (FRVO) gains 8% after the geothermal-energy company agreed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Nvidia to develop a digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems technology. Getty Images (GETY) soars 156% after the company announced a display partnership With OpenAI. Regenxbio (RGNX) climbs 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA has agreed to reverse the rejection of the firm’s rare-disease drug. SpaceX (SPCX) is down 5%, putting the stock on pace for a third straight loss. A peppering of M&A and ECM news is spicing up an otherwise quiet Monday morning. Budget airline EasyJet has rejected three offers by US private credit giant Castlelake. AbbVie is closing in on a nearly $11 billion deal to buy inflammatory disease drug developer Apogee Therapeutics, according to the FT, which also reports that building materials group Arcosa could be close to a takeout by larger rival CRH. SpaceX kicked off its debut US dollar high-grade bond offering expected to be at least $25 billion.

The big geopolitical development over the weekend revolved around US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides ultimately highlighted progress following some earlier headline noise. Oil traders took comfort from evidence of progress in Middle East talks even as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Vance said the warring sides set up a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran agreed to invite nuclear inspectors.

“Even during the midst of the conflict in the Middle East, equities still priced a positive outcome,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “It seems logical that markets don’t rally too hard on something which they had already priced to a fair degree.”

Traders also followed the latest developments in UK politics as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation outside 10 Downing Street. The pound erased losses after briefly touching a 2026 low, while gilts rallied as an orderly leadership transition took shape. The departure of Starmer is putting Britain on course for its seventh premier in a decade and paving the way for Andy Burnham to replace him. The former mayor of Manchester announced his candidacy hours after Starmer’s resignation and received the backing of Wes Streeting, a potential rival. Starmer said nominations for a new Labour leader will open July 9 and that a contest will be finalized by Sept. 1. The question for investors is about the impact on the UK’s finances if Burnham were to become prime minister. A slew of all-but-forgotten niche option positions betting on an oil glut are coming back into play as crude cools.

“Markets would be watching for Burnham’s pick of Chancellor,” wrote Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The fear is that Burnham’s policies are left-leaning and if the new chancellor is not credible, it would raise concerns over deficits and borrowing.”

The AI trade still works and investors should keep it, say Goldman Sachs traders in charge of thematic investing, baskets and equity structuring.

In geopolitics, China has imposed export controls against US rare earth firms, in response to the Pentagon’s accusations against some of China’s biggest companies supporting the Chinese military.

Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. The rising cost of living, and corruption, are shaping up to be major campaign battlefronts in races that will determine control of the US Congress.

Bond traders, recently forced to reposition for the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, are looking to Thursday’s US personal consumption expenditures price index for a read on whether the market’s hawkish stance is warranted. Forecasters expect the index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak later on Monday. Bloomberg Economics’ head Anna Wong expects a hot PCE reading will likely reinforce the hawkish tilt by the Fed at its June meeting.

Ahead of Micron’s earnings, a leveraged ETF linked to rival SK Hynix is lifting an option cap. Rising leverage is also showing up in FINRA’s margin debt statistics, and the Roundhill DRAM ETF has recorded 19 straight days of inflows and AUM surpassed $20 billion. Micron’s fiscal 3Q revenue may exceed consensus by about 13% and guidance by 18%, notes BI.

European stocks struggled to derive much benefit with the Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, with construction and media stocks leading declines, while technology and energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

Infineon shares rise as much as 5.3%, after CFO Sven Schneider maintained his bullish stance on the chipmaker’s growth over the next few years, while Bernstein increased its price target for the stock EasyJet shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest level in almost a year after the British budget carrier rejected a third takeover proposal from US investment firm Castlelake BioArctic jumps as much as 10%, the most in more than four months, after the Swedish biopharma company signed a research and collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for its BrainTransporter technology LISI gains as much as 7.6%, reaching a record high, as Berenberg initiates on the component maker with a buy rating, citing entrenched positions in automotive and aerospace fasteners Sanofi shares slip as much as 2.1%, making them the biggest laggard by index points in the Stoxx 600’s healthcare subgroup on Monday morning Babcock shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since February, as the defense contractor posts full-year results UBS shares are slide as much as 0.6%, falling for a second straight session after being downgraded at Zuercher Kantonalbank on valuation grounds, with the Swiss bank having hit a fresh 2008-high last Thursday Asian stocks surged to a record as chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-linked firms rallied amid optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with information technology the top performing sector. Markets in Taiwan, mainland China and Japan led regional gains. Continued interest in AI and semiconductor plays drove Taiwan’s benchmark to a record high. South Korea’s memory maker SK Hynix also rose to an all-time high on expectations over its planned ADR listing, helping to erase earlier losses in the Kospi gauge. Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong underperformed, as weak consumption data weighed on sentiment and investors chased the AI rally elsewhere. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in the city was headed for a bear market before trimming some losses.

“We continue seeing liquidities leaving ‘old Techs’ in Hong Kong including Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu to chase AI-related stocks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian.

In FX, the pound is down a handful of pips near its year-to-date low. The yen is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, treasuries decline, pushing US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.48% as trading resumes after Friday’s US cash-market holiday. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher on the day with losses led by front-end tenors, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year around 4.48% is cheaper by 3bp with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 5bp and 6.5bp. European bonds outperform led by gilts after Wes Streeting backed Andy Burnham to be new UK Prime Minister, removing a key uncertainty after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Oil trades lower on signs of diplomatic headway between the US and Iran. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few items so far. Dealers forecast about $50 billion of US investment-grade bond sales this week, likely to include a jumbo bond offering from SpaceX. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $69 billion 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year note sales Wednesday and Thursday

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% after Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% near session lows after US Vice President Vance says Hormuz is open and talks with Iran have made progress. Precious metals advance, with spot silver rising 2%.

US event calendar: US economic data calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 9am; Williams, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Barkin speak later this week

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

The U.S. and Iran made progress during talks in Switzerland on Monday toward reaching a final deal within 60 days, including the agreement to establish a committee and a mechanism to end hostilities in Lebanon. CNBC The US and Iran set up a communication line to avoid incidents and ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BBG UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation and outlined plans for a successor to take office by September. The move clears the way for Andy Burnham to become Britain’s seventh PM in a decade. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he backed Burnham to become PM. The pound hovered near its weakest level of the year while gilts were little changed. BBG China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP South Korea’s exports jumped again in early June, thanks to AI fueling a sustained boom in the semiconductor sector. BBG Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply natural-gas fired power to a planned West Texas data center that may become one of the largest in the US. BBG Semis are on pace to finish as the most net bought global subsector for a second straight year, with net allocations now at record highs. GS Prime Brokerage Major investors warned that Fed Chair Warsh’s push to axe the Fed’s guidance on the direction of monetary policy could increase volatility in the Treasury market and drive borrowing costs higher: FT. Hong Kong is in talks with Chinese authorities to expand cross-border investment channels and grant mainland buyers access to local IPOs. BBG Colombia elected Trump ally Abelardo de la Espriella president by a razor-thin margin. The preliminary result was immediately challenged by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who backed rival candidate Senator Iván Cepeda. BBG US Secretary of State Rubio congratulates Colombia's presidential candidate De la Espriella who leads against leftist rival Cepeda following the Colombian election. Democrats are set to make corruption a major campaign battlefront in the midterms as polling suggests voters are eager to see lawmakers take on conflicts of interest and self-enrichment by leaders. BBG US Southern Command announces that Task Force Southern Spear has conducted a strike on a vessel operated by designated terrorist organisations in the Caribbean. US Secretary of State Rubio plans trip to the Middle East next week: Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain at the moment: Axios US President Trump told Axios that he doesn’t see Anthropic PBC as a national security threat, despite his administration recently taking steps to cut off foreign access to the tech company’s most advanced AI models. Furthermore, Trump said that it was seen as a threat last week, but relations have improved since with the AI giant. US Department of Agriculture announced three new cases of screwworm to take the total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iran Headlines: Latest News

US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks. Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators. US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox. US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US. UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden. Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat. Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days. "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources. Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon. "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source. US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya. US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open. Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators. Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries. Iranian Commentary:

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported. Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports. Lebanon/Israel:

Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon. Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.". Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported. Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.". Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance. Other:

Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU. Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy following the recent conflicting headlines concerning US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, as the Iranian delegation was said to have walked out of talks following Trump's renewed threats to resume bombing them if a deal is not reached and if they don't stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. However, the reports that gradually followed were more encouraging as mediators stated that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere and technical talks are to continue for the remainder of the week, with the US and Iran agreeing to a de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Furthermore, the parties agreed to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation and on a roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that mediation delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war, as well as stated that oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade is lifted, frozen assets released, and that a major reconstruction and development plan was launched for Iran. ASX 200 struggled for direction as strength in gold miners and financials was offset by weakness in tech, energy and defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on record highs and rallied firmly above the 72,000 level as exporters benefited from a weaker currency and a pullback in oil, although the index has pared some of the gains, but comfortably remained the outperformer. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid a divergence between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in which the latter took over the throne as South Korea’s largest Co. by market cap. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after China added 10 US firms to its export control list and announced to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities, while there was a lack of surprises from the announcement that the benchmark Loan Prime Rates were maintained for a 13th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

The Japanese Government is reportedly planning to deploy JPY 68tln in public and private funding for the semiconductor sector by FY 2040, TV Asahi reported citing sources. Australia's Agricultural Minister said testing has confirmed H5 bird flu detected in a second bird found in Western Australia. China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said risk of fragmented supply chains is growing and that some countries abuse use of export controls, adds China is anchor of stability and propeller of the global economy. said: Can work with all sides to build inclusive supply chains. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary, but declines to comment on particular forex rates. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) began the session on a muted footing, as markets digest the volatile geopolitical situation (see above). European sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning wrote “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is Construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model

Top European News

UK PM Starmer announces he will step down; nominations for Labour leader will open on 9th July, conclude by end-summer; will act as caretaker until new leader elected. Will fully support whoever takes over. UK PM's Chief of Staff resigns, New Statesman reported. UK Minister Smith said "I would have been very happy for him to continue", in reference to PM Starmer. UK Foreign Minister Cooper urges UK PM Starmer to resign, according to Sky News. Ireland said EU capital markets deal is possible by year end, according to FT. Italian PM Meloni called out US President Trump for “senseless”, “constant, unprovoked attacks”, while she said that Trump’s statements are completely made up and she doesn’t know why he behaves like this towards allies, after Trump told an Italian TV channel that Meloni begged him to take a picture with her and that he wouldn’t have taken it, but he felt sorry for her. Furthermore, Trump criticised Italy and its PM for not becoming involved with Iran and its nuclear threat. FX

DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open. USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark. UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains. JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials. South African Parliamentary Speaker Didiza plans to support President Ramaphosa’s bid to halt his impeachment proceedings. Central Banks

Japan's PM Takaichi said expect BoJ to closely coordinate with the government and conduct a monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price goal. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said takes some time for policy to have an impact on the economy. said:. Pass-through from oil prices to downstream goods has progressed somewhat rapidly. Recent easing of Middle East tensions doesn't deviate much from their April outlook. Accommodative conditions are expected to continue. Risks of price overshoot could materialise if there is a delay in the necessary adjustment in the degree of monetary easing. Will closely monitor impacts that raising policy interest rates may have on businesses and households. ECB's Escriva warns that rising oil and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are feeding into consumer prices and could cause wage spillovers. said energy cost increases are already transmitting through areas such as transport services. ECB must monitor possible second-round wage effects depending on inflation persistence. Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%). Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%). SNB adjusts remuneration of sight deposits; lowering threshold factor from 15 to 13.5; effective August 1st 2026. Fixed Income

Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five. USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs. USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller. Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing. Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point. Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor. Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably. Geopolitics

A very busy geopolitical weekend, which initially saw the Iranians shut the Strait of Hormuz, and it suggested that the US and Israel broke the interim ceasefire agreement amid the continued military strikes on southern Lebanon. This led Brent Aug’26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl, to a session peak of USD 82.30/bbl. Attention then turned to US-Iran talks in Switzerland. The outcome of the initial talks were positive. A Qatari and Pakistani joint statement stated that US and Iran agreed to set up a de-confliction cell over Lebanon and agreed to establish a high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. The high-level committee also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Following the positive mood music from the talks, Brent Aug’26 gradually moved off best levels and turned negative; currently lower by c. 1.1%, and at the bottom end of a USD 78.58-82.30/bbl range. Attention remains on further developments on the negotiation process, which is expected to continue throughout the week. For now, the heads of the delegation team have headed back to Iran, while technical teams will remain in Switzerland to follow up the implementation of the MoU. Spot gold (+0.8%) is in the green, benefiting from the disinflationary implications of the positive geopolitical mood music. XAU/USD is currently holding within a USD 4136-4221/oz range. On analyst commentary: Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40T a month in 2027. Base metals are broadly firmer this morning vs a mostly negative APAC session. Focus overnight remained on China adding US firms to its export control list and decided to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. 3M LME Copper currently resides within a USD 13,598.28-13,736.93/t range. "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reported. Goldman Sachs expects central bank Gold buying to slow slightly but remain a structural floor for prices. GS forecasts central bank buying at roughly 50 T a month in 2026, then slowing to around 40 T a month in 2027. US Department of Agriculture announces three new cases of screwworm to take total number of domestic detections to 15 cases. Iraq asked operators of five major oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, targeting output of more than 3mln bpd, while it was separately reported that Iraq intends to gradually increase oil production to between 4.2mln-4.3mln bpd, according to the deputy oil minister for upstream affairs. Qatar’s Interior Ministry reported an internal explosion at a factory in the Ras Laffan Industrial Area, although no injuries or leaks were reported. A fire occurred in Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery (631k bpd) but was extinguished. Guinea’s President Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, in an effort to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy. Trade/Tariffs

Iranian delegation is set to travel to Tehran after talks in Switzerland. India's Trade Minister said they intend to secure preferential market access via a trade agreement with the US. Signing of a US-India trade agreement will take longer than expected, because the US initially imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. China's MOFCOM issues action plan on strengthening foreign Investment; to support qualified key foreign firms listing on domestic exchanges. China added 10 US firms to its export control list including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announcing to take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities. USTR Greer is to travel to India and Uzbekistan, while he will discuss the US-India joint statement as part of bilateral trade agreement talks. US Event Calendar

9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Delivers Opening Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those in Europe and parts of the US this week I hope you can cope with the expected extreme heat. The UK is certainly not ready for what's about to hit us. I'm looking to exploit this and set up my own AI company. Aircon Installations. Please enquire for the best prices and for the IPO launching soon!

Talking of extreme heat, the latest developments out of the Middle East have turned more constructive after a highly volatile start to the weekend. Encouraging progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, has seen both sides agree overnight to a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, alongside the creation of technical working groups, a de conflict mechanism covering Lebanon, and a direct communication line aimed at avoiding incidents and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. This marks a notable shift from Saturday’s confusion, when Iran suggested the strait was now closed again after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and briefly stepped back from talks following renewed threats from President Trump, who reiterated that the US would strike again if Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon continue attacks on Israel. Despite that rhetoric, oil flows through Hormuz have continued and even picked up over the weekend, helping to calm markets, with Brent reversing earlier gains this morning before details of the talks came through. What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile.

However, for now Brent crude (-1.61%) is reversing its earlier gains, currently trading at $79.27 per barrel. Asian equities are not seeing a clear trend with the Nikkei (+1.56%) notably higher, but with the KOSPI fairly flat after being up +2% earlier in the session. The Shanghai Comp is +0.18%, while the Hang Seng is down -0.98%. China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the 13th consecutive month overnight.

10-year USTs have increased by +3.2 bps, trading at 4.49% as cash trading has resumed following Friday's US holiday. 2yr yields are +4.7bps. US equity futures are down around half a percentage point but that's roughly where they were for a lot of Friday when the cash market was closed.

The main data highlights this week are the global flash PMIs tomorrow, and the US core PCE on Thursday. Elsewhere, other data of interest include the Ifo survey in Germany (Wednesday), Tokyo CPI in Japan (Friday), and CPI reports in Canada (today) and Australia (Wednesday). Note there is much speculation around whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign this week after leadership rival Andy Burnham’s by-election win last week. The Observer newspaper yesterday reported that Starmer was preparing to set out a timetable for his departure, with an announcement possible today. If true it’s notable it's happening on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote tomorrow, something the UK still hasn’t come to terms with. Since then, the UK has revolved through six Prime Ministers which alongside Brexit, underlines the immense difficulties many incumbents have in the Western World today. Everyone arrives in the post with great hopes but then the lack of growth and the financial realities hit. Until you have stronger economic growth and are less constrained by debt it’s highly likely the conveyor belt of PMs will continue.

On this, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute will be pleased to welcome you to our London offices on Thursday (11:30 refreshments for a 12-1 presentation) for a look at “Brexit 10 years on: Whats’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?”. I’ll be introducing Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal in what looks set to be a fascinating week for the UK.

Moving over to the other side of the Atlantic, after a hawkish FOMC last week with a clear shift in style from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, our economists now have two 25bps hikes in their Fed forecast. They have warned that the US economy needed tighter policy but were waiting for the meeting to confirm the tightening view. The central scenario sees two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%, followed by a prolonged pause through 2027. Easing is then expected to resume in the first half of 2028, with around 50 basis points of cuts, potentially delivered in March and June, bringing policy back towards a neutral range of roughly 3.5–3.75%. See their piece explaining their view here.

In terms of the US week ahead, our economists expect appearances by Williams and Goolsbee on Thursday to be particularly informative. Williams, who also serves as Vice Chair of the FOMC, is seen as one of those not currently predicting a hike this year, while Goolsbee is viewed as leaning towards around 50 basis points of tightening.

Earlier that day, attention will centre on the data flow. US economists expect May personal income to rise by around 0.4% (from flat previously) and consumption to increase by 0.6% (from 0.5%). The core PCE deflator is projected to rise by around 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.24%. On this basis, the year-on-year rate would move higher to approximately 3.44%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the narrative of persistent underlying inflation. The Fed will also release its bank stress test results on Wednesday and there is other second tier data.

Over in Europe, in addition to the PMIs, sentiment indicators in Germany will include the Ifo survey (Wednesday) and the July GfK consumer confidence print (Thursday). In France, there will be business confidence tomorrow and consumer confidence on Thursday. Finally, the ECB will release its May consumer expectations survey on Friday, with inflation expectations in focus. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde amongst others.

In Asia, inflation prints due include the Tokyo CPI for June on Friday in Japan (see our Chief Japan’s economist week-ahead here) and Australia’s May CPI due Wednesday (DB forecast for headline CPI is -0.4% MoM / 4.3% YoY). Other notable data features BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its June meeting (Wednesday), Australia’s labour force survey (Thursday) and the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates in China (Monday).

Finally, there will be a few notable earnings reports out next week, including FedEx, Cerebras and Carnival tomorrow as well as Micron and Jefferies on Wednesday. Micron is up around 830% over the last year and around 250% since the end of March with a market cap of nearly $1.3tn. So it’s becoming one to follow from the macro side.

Recapping last week, oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

But even as inflation expectations fell, the Fed’s latest decision on Wednesday led to a clear hawkish repricing for markets. Notably, 9 of the 18 officials in the dot plot signalled there should be a rate hike this year, although new Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a dot himself. But Warsh did reiterate the Fed’s inflation target, pledging to return inflation to target after five years above. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate to a post-1995 high of 1%.

That backdrop meant markets brought forward their expectations for a Fed rate hike. So by the end of the week, 39bps of Fed hikes were priced in by December, up from 21bps at the start of the week. In turn, that led to a flattening in the Treasury yield curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +9.6bps to 4.18%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.45%. A similar pattern was evident globally, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+2.7bps) up to 2.64%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.0ps) fell to 2.98%.

Whilst equities saw a pullback after the Fed decision, they still ended the week higher as concern about a stagflationary shock faded. So the S&P 500 was up +0.93%, Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by +7.92%, marking its biggest weekly jump since August 2024. The moves were supported by the ongoing rebound in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.26% to a new record.

Recapping last week now and oil prices kept falling as they reacted to the news that the US and Iran had reached an interim deal. So that meant Brent crude fell -7.74% last week (+0.90% Friday) to $80.57/bbl. So that considerably eased fears about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, particularly as data showed more traffic was starting to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Indeed, near-term inflation expectations plummeted, with the 1yr US inflation swap down -30.8bps last week to 2.44%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap was down -23.7bps to 2.60%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 08:26

Tyler Durden

Summary

Perspectives

Actors involved

Sources

Community Notes

Community Notes

Related events

Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back, says US

Stocks Drift As Chips Extend Gains, Oil Slides On Positive US-Iran Talks

Iran Declares Renewed Closure of Strait of Hormuz

Iran live updates: US and Iran agree to roadmap for 'final deal' within 60 days