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strikeMar 25, 2026

How the war in Iran could most affect Europe

Summary

In the early hours of September 2, 2015, 3-year-old Aylan Kurdi, his 5-year-old brother Galip and their mother Rihan drowned when their overcrowded boat capsized during the 12-mile journey from Bodrum, Turkey, to the Greek island of Kos. They were fleeing the siege of Kobane, a Syrian-Kurdish border town under assault by the Islamic State group. The photograph of Aylan’s lifeless body, face-down on a Turkish beach, shocked the world and became a defining symbol of the human cost of the Syrian civil war—a single child representing the millions fleeing conflict and persecution. Now, as a new war engulfs Iran, history may be repeating itself, but on an even more catastrophic scale. “Even before the current war in the Middle East there were more than 20 million forcibly displaced people in the whole region,” said Gerald Knaus, founder and director of the European Stability Initiative. “The latest fighting is producing further displacement, with no end in sight.” A Stark Warning Since late February, between 600,000 and one million Iranian households—up to 3.2 million people—have fled their homes, according to UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency. Most are fleeing from Tehran and other major urban areas toward the rural north, escaping strikes that began on February 28. The human toll has been severe. Thousands of people have been killed across the Middle East. As of March 22, 3,231 people had been killed in Iran, of which 1,407 were civilians including 214 children, according to U.S.-based rights group HRANA. Thirteen U.S. service members had been killed. Strikes have been reported in more than a dozen countries, and in Lebanon nearly 1 million people have been displaced after Israel escalated hostilities with Hezbollah. The European Union Agency for Asylum has issued a stark warning: with Iran’s population of approximately 90 million, even partial destabilization could generate refugee movements of an “unprecedented magnitude.” The agency noted that displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades. To understand what Europe might face, one need only look back at the Syrian civil war—a conflict that fundamentally reshaped the continent’s politics and societies. By July 2015, more than four million Syrian refugees had fled to neighboring countries. The breakdown was staggering: Turkey hosted 1,805,255 Syrian refugees, Lebanon took in 1,172,753, Jordan absorbed 629,128, Iraq sheltered 249,726 and Egypt received 132,375, per UNHCR. Lebanon’s refugee population represented approximately one in five people in the country, while Jordan’s constituted roughly 10 percent of its population, according to Amnesty International. Turkey became the crucial gateway to Europe. Over 800,000 refugees and migrants came via the Aegean Sea from Turkey into Greece in 2015, accounting for 80 percent of the people arriving irregularly in Europe by sea that year. The geographic proximity and established migration networks made Turkey the natural corridor for refugees seeking to reach the continent—a role it would likely play again if Iran’s conflict drives similar westward movement. “The main reason for the extraordinary refugee year 2015 in the Aegean was loss of hope among many refugees,” Knaus told Newsweek. “The second reason is as important, however: Turkey allowed Syrians in. Today and for many years already this is no longer true.” Over one million refugees and migrants reached Europe by sea in 2015 alone. Of these, some 972,500 had crossed the Mediterranean Sea, with an additional 34,000 crossing from Turkey into Bulgaria and Greece by land. Half of those crossing the Mediterranean that year—500,000 people—were Syrians escaping their country’s brutal civil war. The human cost was devastating: some 3,735 people were reported missing and believed drowned in 2015. By the time Aylan Kurdi’s body washed ashore, more than 300,000 people had risked their lives to reach Europe, and over 2,600 had perished in the attempt. Gateway to Tragedy The Syrian exodus wasn’t Europe’s only migration crisis. After the NATO-backed fall of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya fell into chaos and became a major transit hub for African and Middle Eastern migrants. That year alone, more than 1,500 people drowned or went missing in the Mediterranean—the deadliest year since UNHCR began tracking such data. A record 58,000 irregular migrants, asylum seekers and refugees reached Europe by sea in 2011, and by 2015, the central Mediterranean route saw 150,000 crossings. Libya’s collapse created a humanitarian catastrophe. Migrants faced horrific abuses in detention centers and were often forced onto boats by traffickers, risking death at sea. The resulting influx of refugees fundamentally reshaped European politics. Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, erected a border fence along its frontier with Serbia in September 2015 after recording over 411,000 irregular crossings that year. Orbán’s hard-line stance against migration became a blueprint for nationalist leaders across the continent. The crisis shattered the Schengen ideal of open borders and fueled the rise of far-right, anti-immigration parties. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party, known as AfD, surged in popularity, capitalizing on public anxiety over Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to welcome over one million asylum seekers. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly National Front) gained ground with anti-immigration rhetoric. The Netherlands saw Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom become a major political force, while in Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy—which would eventually lead her to the prime minister’s office in 2022—gained traction on a platform that included strict migration controls. In the U.K., the refugee crisis became a flash point in the Brexit referendum. Immigration was weaponized by pro-Leave campaigners, infamously through the “Breaking Point” poster, which showed a line of refugees under the slogan “The EU has failed us all.” The image, widely condemned as inflammatory, became a symbol of how migration fears were exploited to sway public opinion. A decade later, the political aftershocks endure. Anti-immigrant sentiment remains potent and far-right parties have cemented their influence across Europe. Meloni now governs Italy, Wilders’ party recently won Dutch elections, and the AfD has become the second-largest party in several German states. A Crisis of Much Greater Scale Iran’s population of approximately 90 million dwarfs Syria’s prewar population of 22 million. With 3.2 million Iranians already internally displaced, humanitarian agencies warn that even a modest escalation could trigger refugee flows on a scale never before seen. A displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population—9 million people—would far outnumber Syrians who fled their country during the entire civil war, potentially overwhelming both neighboring host countries and Europe’s already strained asylum systems. “So far, relatively few people have left Iran—the vast majority of those displaced remain in the country. But as the war continues and the situation becomes more tenuous—in addition to the strikes themselves, things like the destruction of civilian infrastructure—more and more people will assess whether to leave,” Kelsey P. Norman, a fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute and director of the Women’s Rights, Human Rights and Refugees Program, told Newsweek. Europe is still grappling with the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which triggered the continent’s largest refugee crisis since World War II, displacing more than 8 million people across borders and placing immense strain on national asylum systems. Around 8,000 Iranians applied for asylum in the EU in 2025. Even a modest increase in displacement would represent a dramatic surge from current levels. The International Organization for Migration has called for immediate de-escalation, warning that “military escalation would force more families from their homes and hit civilians hard.” Iraq, which already hosts more than 280,000 refugees from other countries and has nearly 1.2 million internally displaced people, finds itself bracing for a potential influx from neighboring Iran. The country’s refugee infrastructure, already strained from years of internal conflict and the ISIS insurgency, faces the prospect of absorbing potentially hundreds of thousands more displaced persons. Turkey—already hosting roughly 1.8–1.9 million Syrian refugees in 2015—faces a daunting prospect. If Iran’s conflict drives mass displacement, Turkey could again become the primary Aegean corridor to Europe, forced to choose between hardening its borders or allowing large numbers to transit. “Approximately 1,500 Iranians per day have been permitted to cross from Iran into Turkey so far, but Turkey is preparing for the possibility of large arrivals, weighing options like creating a buffer zone, setting up camps along the border or permitting certain groups of individuals to enter the country,” Norman added. “Turkey will not accept a mass number; the ruling AKP party is still contending with the politics of allowing more than 3 million Syrian refugees to remain for so long. But even if it does allow camps along the border or the creation of a buffer zone, it will absolutely seek financial assistance to do so from Europe. The infamous 6 billion euro deal with Europe from 10 years ago taught Turkey that it can effectively leverage the politics of refugee hosting to demand—or sometimes blackmail—Europe into providing financial assistance. If needed, we can expect that Turkey will employ the same tactics again,” Norman said. Knaus added that if Turkey does not allow large numbers of refugees in, they will not be able to reach the EU and remain trapped. Germany and Sweden, which absorbed the largest numbers of Syrian asylum applicants during the 2015 crisis, would again find themselves on the front lines. In 2015, EU+ countries (EU‑28 plus Norway and Switzerland) recorded 1,349,638 asylum applications—more than twice the level recorded in 2014. Syrians were the largest group of asylum applicants, accounting for 27 percent of applications in the EU+, with 369,871 applications registered that year. Germany and Sweden together received 47 percent of Syrian asylum applications in the EU between April 2011 and July 2015. Germany alone pledged 35,000 places for Syrian refugees through its humanitarian admission program in 2015. Europe Divided The Iran conflict has exposed deep divisions within Europe over migration policy. In January 2026, Spain announced it would grant legal status to potentially 500,000 undocumented migrants already in the country. While Spain’s move came before the Iran war began, European officials fear that any offer of sanctuary could create a pull factor if Iranian refugees begin fleeing en masse. The decision has created tensions with France, which shares a border with Spain and fears an influx of migrants taking advantage of Spain’s more permissive policies. This tension echoes the fractures that emerged during the 2015 crisis, when disagreements over burden-sharing and border control threatened EU unity. The difference now is that Europe’s political landscape has shifted significantly rightward, with anti-immigration leaders like Meloni, Orbán and Wilders holding substantial power. In Knaus’ view, those political dynamics cannot be separated from the forces that he said produced Europe’s largest refugee movements in the first place. “It is worth recalling that the two largest refugee crises affecting Europe in the past decade were closely linked to the actions of one man, Vladimir Putin,” he said. “First through Russia’s military intervention that helped keep [Bashar al-] Assad in power during the Syrian war, and then through the invasion of Ukraine that forced millions of Ukrainians to flee. The political effect is striking: Many of the same far-right parties in Europe that warn most loudly about refugees and fantasize about the chimera of the ‘Great Replacement’ openly sympathize with the very leader whose wars produced the largest refugee crises in Europe since the Second World War.” As the war in Iran enters its fifth week, humanitarian workers fear that Aylan Kurdi’s story—and those of thousands like him—will repeat themselves on European beaches. The 2015 crisis transformed European politics, fueled the rise of far-right movements and led to renewed debate over open borders within the EU. A new wave of displacement from Iran would test European unity, humanitarian commitments and political stability in ways the continent has not experienced in generations.

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  • Jennifer WignallBy Jennifer Wignall

    In the early hours of September 2, 2015, 3-year-old Aylan Kurdi, his 5-year-old brother Galip and their mother Rihan drowned when their overcrowded boat capsized during the 12-mile journey from Bodrum, Turkey, to the Greek island of Kos. They were fleeing the siege of Kobane, a S…

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Something Changed in a Single Day: Trump Claimed Backchannel Talks With the IRGC, Then Said No Talks Were Happening at All

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President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Location: Tehran
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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says

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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

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Trump says no talks planned with Iran, Tehran says Strait of Hormuz still shut

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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

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Iran’s gutted ranks leave loyalists filling critical posts — with one glaring problem

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Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran
Efrat Lachter