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diplomacyMar 31, 2026

Jim Cramer: Three ways the stock market will flip if the U.S.-Iran war ends

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- Jim Cramer explained three ways the market will react once the war in the Middle East is over. - "Today we saw what would happen when you give peace a chance," Cramer said, pointing to Tuesday's rally in growth stocks. Want to know how the market will react when the U.S.-Iran war finally ends? CNBC's Jim Cramer said Tuesday's session gives investors the answer. The "Mad Money" host said that the market "tipped its hand" during Tuesday trading as stocks finally rallied and rates went lower, describing the day as "a dry run of what will ultimately occur." The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.91% and 3.83%, respectively, after a slew of headlines that gave traders hope of a de-escalation in the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday that President Trump told aides that the U.S. is willing to end military hostilities with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. He also told the New York Post that the Iran war will probably end soon. Both follow an unconfirmed report that the Iranian President reiterated he is open to ending the conflict with security guarantees. "Today we saw what would happen when you give peace a chance," Cramer said. "Maybe this dialogue with Iran is really nothing more than an exchange of messages. Maybe it's meaningless. So, consider today a dry run of what will ultimately occur when the war winds down." But Cramer predicted the market will shift in three ways once the war really is over. First, he noted that rates are set to fall, marking a major reversal for the 10-year Treasury since the war began a month ago. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which influences borrowing costs across the economy, has jumped on concerns of inflation risks from higher energy costs and lower odds of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026. "They [will] go down noticeably," Cramer said of rates. "They go down because we now realize that there's a huge amount of inflation stemming from the war. Not just from oil going higher – we saw that at the pump – but from the ancillary products that came out of the Gulf: fertilizer, polyethylene and aluminum." He continued, "We didn't know going into the war that our farmers were gonna need to raise prices to us because the price of fertilizer would go much higher. You allow the fertilizer to come back down, you stop the pernicious food inflation." There's also going to be a huge comeback in growth stocks, according to Cramer, who pointed to Tuesday's gains in Nvidia and Marvell. Nvidia and Marvell jumped 5.5% and nearly 13%, respectively, during the session. Cramer said as rates go down investors can focus on what high-growth companies like these are actually doing right without getting distracted by conflict in the Middle East. He pointed to a new strategic partnership between the artificial intelligence giants, including Nvidia's $2 billion stake in Marvell. "Money managers believe that price-to-earnings multiples — how much we'll pay for a company's earnings – have been horribly compressed by the war," Cramer added. "If the war's over, we'll start paying more for the stocks of companies that were never gonna skip a beat to begin with." Finally, Cramer expects a rally in big bank stocks. The war has raised concerns that Wall Street dealmaking will freeze. The financials cohort, in turn, should benefit from the conflict ending and the possibility of more deals. Case in point: Big Tuesday winners were major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which advanced nearly 5% and 4%, respectively. Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer's every move in the market. Questions for Cramer? Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC Want to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up! Mad Money Twitter - Jim Cramer Twitter - Facebook - Instagram Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? [email protected]

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Key points: Bitcoin diverges from US stocks as Trump says Strait of Hormuz “open” Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD building on the week’s gains as the S&P 500 bounced from 7,696, its lowest level since Aug. 4. BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView This came after US president Donald Trump posted a map of the closed Strait of Hormuz oil route to Truth Social where it was labeled “new US territory.

” Both the US and Iran lay claim to control of Hormuz, with Trump threatening US ally Oman with military action over its plans to work with Iran on charging tolls to shipping traffic. In a subsequent post, Trump confirmed that further diplomacy with Iran was not on the agenda.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he wrote. S&P 500 one-day chart.

Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView As on Monday, oil avoided major volatility, with WTI crude down 1% at the time of writing at $84 per barrel. US government bonds continued to show strain, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.34%, its highest since January 2007.

“Bond prices are sending warnings,” BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu wrote in a research note quoted by the New York Times. Yu said that the surge came as “investors demand more compensation for inflation risk,” while also attributing the upside to government borrowing.

US 30-year bond yields one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView BTC price faces crunch rebound test Updating X followers on BTC/USD, trader and analyst Aksel Kibar eyed the culmination of a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $62,300.

Related: Bitcoin price spike to $64.5K was ‘low-volume liquidity trap’: Analysis “If $BTCUSD is going to rebound, it has to come from here,” he argued on Monday. Kibar offered a $53,000 target in the event of the head-and-shoulders structure failing, with $76,000 a potential upside target should the rebound sustain.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com Previously, Cointelegraph reported that underwater investors were contributing to Bitcoin’s inability to break higher. Its rebound to $64,500 also stopped short of an overhead trend line, the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA).

This moving average is now in place as resistance at $65,827.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Trump says no talks underway with Iran, Hormuz blockade remains in place US president says no discussions are taking place or planned with Tehran and reiterates that the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains fully operational Washington: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks are taking place with Iran and that no discussions are currently scheduled between the two countries.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump also said the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains "in full force and effect." The president did not provide further details regarding US policy towards Iran or any potential future diplomatic engagement.

Trump's comments come amid continued tensions between Washington and Tehran and renewed focus on security and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes.

Location: Tehran
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Iran had “won both the war and diplomacy,” claiming those who initially sought Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” later sought negotiations. Speaking at an event, Araghchi said Iran resisted for days against what he described as “the world’s largest apparent military,” alongside another army claiming military power and with the support of nearly all Western countries and some other states inside and outside the region, according to the Tasnim news agency.

“Those who were seeking unconditional surrender, shortly after the war began, begged for negotiations,” Araghchi said. He claimed Tehran initially rejected a ceasefire and continued fighting until reaching a point where the other side accepted a ceasefire and negotiations “on Iran’s terms.

” “We fought with strength, and we negotiated with strength,” he said, adding that many foreign ministers had told him: “You won both the war and diplomacy.” Araghchi’s remarks came after US President Donald Trump called on Iran on Monday to give up and “raise the white flag.

Location: Tehran
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- Iran demands US lift sanctions and return frozen assets to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Iran's Parliament Speaker warns closure of Strait continues until US ends military threats - Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait, impacting energy security Iran has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets a set of conditions, including the release of frozen Iranian assets, an end to oil sanctions and what Tehran describes as a US blockade and military threats.

Al-Arabiya English reported that Iran's Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Trump administration must meet the conditions before Tehran considers reopening the strategic waterway. “Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Ghalibaf said.

Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. pic.twitter.com/fl2RrKnT1R— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) August 18, 2026 Ghalibaf also warned that Iran was prepared to respond more forcefully depending on the actions of its adversaries.

ALSO READ: 'We Control Hormuz': Trump To Declare Strait As US Territory? Here's What President Says The comments add a new condition to an already fragile diplomatic environment, with the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of concerns over global energy supplies.

Around one-fifth of global oil supply typically passes through the waterway, making any prolonged disruption a major risk for crude markets, shipping and energy security. Earlier, Press TV reported that Ghalibaf is scheduled to travel to Baghdad on Wednesday at the head of a high-level Iranian delegation for discussions with Iraqi leaders.

The talks are expected to cover regional developments and bilateral cooperation, including border security, counterterrorism, economic ties and implementation of existing agreements. Iraqi media have also reported that the agenda could include a proposal concerning Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The visit comes as regional governments grapple with the implications of continued disruption in one of the world's most important energy corridors. ALSO READ: Hormuz Tensions: Another Ship Hit By Unknown Projectile, Says UKMTO Centre The security situation in the waterway has also remained tense.

The UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency, or UKMTO, said a vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. “The Company Security Officer has reported that the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz,” UKMTO said.

The impact damaged the vessel's engine room and resulted in a crew casualty, the agency said. The remaining crew was being assisted by the Omani coastguard. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.

Location: Tehran