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strikeMay 6, 2026

Keep quiet ‘so we don’t go to jail’: Israeli suspects charged with bribery after suspicious bets placed on Iran strikes

Summary

Since users of the leading prediction market Polymarket have been able to wager on the outcomes of war, fears have been raised that those betting on bombs falling from the sky may be privy to non-public information about military strikes. There has been much reported about suspicions of insider trading on war, but who exactly is believed to be placing these bets has remained unclear. In February, Israeli authorities charged two suspects with committing security offences, bribery and obstruction of justice, alleging they used classified information to bet on the timing of military operations on Polymarket. The claims in the indictment follow reporting in the Guardian in January, which revealed a cluster of jointly funded Polymarket accounts wagering on strikes involving Iran and Israel between June 2025 and January 2026, generating profits of about $156,000, according to publicly available blockchain data. Since then, there have been growing reports of possible insider trading on prediction markets – where traders can bet using crypto wallets, particularly around the Iran war, with suspicious accounts racking up millions of dollars in profits. Now, after local journalists successfully appealed to narrow a gag order, Tel Aviv court documents allege more about the people who prosecutors say have profited by betting on lethal military strikes and how they received their information. The documents reveal that one suspect is Omer Ziv, 30, from Tel Aviv. Social media accounts belonging to Omer Ziv – that match details from the indictment and blockchain data, including photos, date of birth and interests – say that Ziv has worked as an affiliate marketing manager in the online gambling industry for eight years, according to LinkedIn. Account activity also suggests he’s a fan of prediction markets; Ziv frequently responded to Kalshi company announcements and was recommended by other users for a chief of staff position at the firm. Days before the arrest, a Kalshi executive unveiled new markets allowing traders to bet on whether crypto prices would rise or fall within 15 minutes. Ziv commented asking when they might shrink to one-minute intervals – “asking for a degen friend”. (“Degen” is internet slang for a person who engages in high-risk and speculative trading.) The account has been inactive since. It is not known whether the transactions on the accounts linked to Ziv are, as prosecutors allege, the result of any illegality. The second defendant is a major in the Israeli air force reserves, whose identity, including details relating to his position, will remain undisclosed on national security grounds, the judge ruled. Prosecutors have summoned 45 witnesses to testify before court. Both defendants have been ordered to remain in custody until the end of the trial. Besides the indictment and the gag order decision, no further court documents have been released as of yet – standard for classified trials, experts in Israeli law told the Guardian. Ziv’s lawyer did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The major’s lawyers declined to comment. The defendants’ pleas are not yet publicly known. Other reservists were also arrested on suspicion of similar crimes, but were released according to a February statement by Israeli authorities. Both defendants have argued this amounts to selective enforcement – defences they seek to assert in court, according to the decision document. In a statement shared with NBC News at the time of arrest, the major’s lawyers said their client has made “significant contributions to the security of the state”, adding they have “strong allegations” about the indictment – including the improper conduct of the investigative authorities, which led to a violation of security. “We are convinced that after these are presented, the case will end in a completely different way than when it was opened,” Ran Cohen Rochverger and Naor Alon Sosnosky said. There’s been just one other arrest over suspected betting using classified information: federal authorities charged a US soldier on Thursday with insider trading relating to the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro from office. The differing charges – one state alleging fraud, the other espionage – underscores the lack of legal precedent when it comes to war gambling. The cases offer a rare window into how these platforms might be used to leverage the secrets of war to turn a profit. In June 2025, a market on Polymarket caught Ziv’s attention, the indictment alleges. “Israeli military action against Iran before July?” Ziv had previously been acquainted with a major in the Israeli air force, according to the indictment. A reservist since 2009, he is the unnamed defendant also being prosecuted. The pair allegedly met while working at a gaming tech company. Ziv brought the Polymarket question to the major’s attention, prosecutors say. The following day, 10 June, the major began active emergency service. The pair allegedly agreed that the major would share confidential information about the timing of military action, while Ziv would place bets using his own funds across multiple newly created Polymarket accounts with vague usernames. Three of the four Polymarket accounts attributed to Ziv in the indictment match the Guardian’s earlier reporting, with corresponding usernames, dates and profits. The Guardian identified a crypto wallet that funded the Polymarket accounts that also contains five video clips, in NFT format, that appear to show Ziv. On 12 June, at an air force base in southern Israel, the major was allegedly briefed that “Operation Roaring Lion” would begin before midnight. He relayed the information to Ziv via WhatsApp, urging him to increase his bets, according to the indictment. In a separate group chat, prosecutors say Ziv told five friends that a strike was imminent, but warned them to keep quiet, “so we don’t go to jail”. Allegations about what role, if any, the major played in the operation remain under seal, but he is a senior ranked official. That evening, as the jets took off, he allegedly typed to Ziv: “It’s already happening.” Shortly after midnight, Tehran awoke to explosions. About 200 Israeli jets struck more than 100 targets across the city. The indictment alleges that Ziv sent the major a screenshot over WhatsApp showing the bets had paid off: roughly $128,000 in gains, split between them. It marked the beginning of the Twelve Day war, during which the pair allegedly placed three further bets tied to the timing of Israeli and US military actions. The conflict killed more than 1,000 people and injured more than 7,000. The pair’s total profits allegedly reached just over $152,000 that month, according to the indictment. This aligns with the username, dates and profits of bets reported by the Guardian. Within a day of the major returning from base, the two met, according to the indictment. Prosecutors said Ziv helped him set up a crypto wallet to receive his share, which was later converted into cash. They then returned to their separate lives, the indictment says. They allegedly reconnected in September, when the major was again summoned for “operational activities”, this time during Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen. These bets were placed using a new account titled “Methuselah”, named after the oldest human in the Bible, who lived for 969 years. Next, in early January 2026, he allegedly told Ziv that tensions were “heating up” and believed strikes on Iran would happen that month. But this time, suspicion spread. Polymarket users began speculating on social media that these bets appeared to be informed by insider knowledge. Alarmed, Ziv cancelled positions and changed usernames, prosecutors allege. The pair deleted WhatsApp messages and wiped photos, fearing an investigation, according to the indictment. Later that month, Ziv travelled to Barcelona for an online gambling conference, according to his social media. In one photo, he stands with colleagues, arms slung around shoulders, all smiling. Then his account went silent. Two days after that photo was shared, Ziv was arrested. The major was detained shortly afterwards. Blockchains, which allow users to remain anonymous, are also permanent ledgers. Every transaction is recorded, timestamped and publicly accessible. When those transactions intersect with centralized exchanges such as Coinbase or Binance, which require identity verification, authorities can subpoena user details. Israeli prosecutors have charged both men with bribery, security offences and obstruction of justice. Ziv faces an additional charge of aggravated espionage – the unauthorized collection of secret information with intent to harm national security – which carries a potential life sentence. Only a handful of Israelis have ever been convicted of aggravated espionage. In 1988, a nuclear technician leaked details of Israel’s weapons programme to the Sunday Times and was sentenced to 18 years in prison, much of it in solitary confinement. During the cold war, two academics were convicted of spying for the Soviet Union. The press was initially restricted in reporting Ziv’s identity but the judge ruled on 27 March that “public hearings are the lifeblood of the democratic regime” suspended only in “exceptional circumstances”, lifting a publication ban on Ziv’s identity. The major’s identity remains anonymous. “Due to his alleged knowledge of military secrets and role in attacks, naming the major would put him in grave danger,” said Prof Zohar Goshen, co-director of Columbia University’s Center for Israeli Legal Studies. The case raises broader security and ethical concerns about the rise of bets tied to military action on Polymarket, which did not respond to requests for comment. Unlike the political motivations of spies and whistleblowers, war markets risk incentivizing sensitive intelligence to be divulged anonymously for profit. It also underscores how these markets blur the line between speculation and exploitation – turning death and destruction into financial derivatives. All quotations from court documents have been translated from Hebrew by the Guardian.

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  • Niamh RoweBy Niamh Rowe

    Since users of the leading prediction market Polymarket have been able to wager on the outcomes of war, fears have been raised that those betting on bombs falling from the sky may be privy to non-public information about military strikes. There has been much reported about suspic

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President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

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On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

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Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran