ConflictClarifier

2026 Iran-Gulf Crisis Tracker
CC
Events Archive
strikeAug 16, 2026

Michael Mazza on Taiwan: The US Coast Guard to the rescue

Summary

For the last 15 years, China has relied on gray zone operations to advance its territorial ambitions across Asia. And for 15 years, the US has struggled to respond. But the open door on which China has been pushing may finally be closing. Gray zone operations involve the assertive use of a variety of tools in ways that create conditions that can be described as neither peace nor war. Military forces might act provocatively — even dangerously — while carefully avoiding violence, whereas law enforcement employs nonlethal violence as a first resort. Such an approach creates difficult calculations for its targets. If Chinese coast guard vessels, for example, far outclass their Philippine counterparts, should the Philippines respond with warships? Can Taiwan stop Chinese fighter jets from crossing the Taiwan Strait median line without shooting them down? Such steps could be construed as escalations, invite Chinese escalation in turn, and put allies and partners like the US in a difficult position: whether to engage in military confrontation with China or let a friend blow in the wind. Beijing has used this approach to great effect. Since 2013, the People’s Republic of China has literally built a string of islands across the South China Sea, used “fishing boats” to enforce sovereignty claims, continually pushed boundaries in deploying military forces near Taiwan, and engaged in “law enforcement” activities in far distant waters. It can now project power far from its southern shores and claim effective control of numerous contested reefs and islets, and it has normalized the daily military coercion of Taiwan. The US has had no real answer for this slow-motion onslaught. It has used freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs), in an attempt to uphold broadly held views of international maritime law. It has also maintained and further invested in its forward presence in the Western Pacific, which plays an important role in deterring outright aggression. But the fact is that the American approach has done little to change facts on the ground: operating in the interstitial space between peace and war, China continues its creeping advance. The US’ approach may now be changing. In an incident near Second Thomas Shoal last month, a Philippine sailor was injured after a Chinese coastguardsman struck him with a wooden baton. Help, it turned out, was not far off. “In fact, there was a US Coast Guard vessel in the region at the time this happened,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed a few days later, “and it actually helped stand between the two sides and allowed the injured individual to be rescued and brought back for medical treatment.” The following week, the American Institute in Taiwan published a photo of US and Taiwan Coast Guard vessels sailing side by side. According to AIT, the two agencies are closely coordinating on multiple joint maritime objectives. In mid-July, the US Coast Guard announced that its Expeditionary Cutter Squadron, historically known as Patrol Forces Southwest Asia, an expeditionary cutter squadron of six fast response cutters, was in the process of relocating from Bahrain to Guam and the Pacific Islands. This marks a significant boost to Coast Guard capabilities in the Western Pacific. “Coast Guard forces have always adapted to meet urgent national needs,” said the Commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Kevin Lunday. “Our expeditionary cutter forces provide Combatant Commands with uniquely capable maritime assets, leveraging the Coast Guard’s military and law enforcement authorities to advance US national security objectives in the Western Pacific and Western Hemisphere.” This new deployment gives Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of Pacific Command, new tools he can use in creative ways to complicate life for China. When an American cutter interposed itself between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, it acted proactively to put the onus for further escalation on the Chinese baton-wielders. And when Taiwanese and American cutters linked up in unspecified waters, though presumably near Taiwan, it sent a powerful signal: Taiwan’s exercise of maritime legal authority is legitimate. The operation also conveyed a message narrowly targeted at China: next time your Coast Guard shows up in the Western Pacific for a “special maritime traffic law enforcement operation,” the US Coast Guard may be there, too. Put simply, these activities constrain China’s freedom of action and limit the effectiveness of its gray zone operations. Where there is contestation, advances are harder to secure. If effectively integrated with other tools — including military forces, legal argumentation, diplomacy, and public messaging — American cutters could finally turn the tide on China’s insidious gains in Asia. Michael Mazza is senior director for research at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security (formerly the Project 2049 Institute) and a senior non-resident fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute. China’s new exit and entry regulations might signal an increase in the risk that Taiwanese travelers will face, an analyst said on Tuesday last week. The new rules, which take effect on Sept. 15, expand the power of authorities to restrict travel on national, industrial and technological security grounds, question travelers about their reasons for leaving and inspect electronic data. Taiwanese who do not support the ruling party should not dismiss the warnings as fearmongering or propaganda. Beijing applies its “anti-secession” laws indiscriminately, an official said recently while presenting a report on proposed amendments to combat China’s efforts at transnational repression. Chinese New large language models (LLM) like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 have dominated the debate about China’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions. Yet the clearest evidence of the country’s prowess might be in video and the stakes could extend far beyond just shaking up Hollywood. Outside of Alphabet Inc’s Google, nearly all of the leading video-generation models are Chinese, making up nine of the top 10 text-to-video systems on benchmarking platform Artificial Analysis’ leaderboard. ByteDance Ltd and MiniMax Group Inc recently released back-to-back updates to their rival video-generation models. That followed the surprise emergence of Happy Horse, a secretive video system that rattled the industry It was shocking to hear Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) say that the legislative branch is somehow now under the control of “dark forces.” Frustrated at the glacial pace of the passage of the government’s annual budget for this year — it was finally passed at 6:08pm on Friday after a record delay of 266 days — Han had lost his temper during a cross-caucus negotiation meeting on Tuesday. The target of his ire was Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁), who was absent that day. Fu had failed to attend the cross-caucus negotiations on a total of China’s State Council on July 31 announced the Regulations on Exit and Entry Administration. Set to take effect from Sept. 15, the regulation expands the People’s Republic of China’s powers to restrict people from leaving the country in the name of “safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests.” International observers widely regard it as another step back to a closed China. Given Beijing’s insistence that Taiwan is “a part of China,” experts warn Taiwanese traveling to China of increasing risk of indefinite detainment. Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) has likewise warned that China has repeatedly revised

Actors involved

USChinaTaiwan

Sources

  • CurrentsAPI

    For the last 15 years, China has relied on gray zone operations to advance its territorial ambitions across Asia. And for 15 years, the US has struggled to respond. But the open door on which China has been pushing may finally be closing. Gray zone operations involve the assertiv

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
1 source

Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
1 source

Middle East: No talks or conversations with Iran, Trump saysPublished August 18, 2026last updated August 18, 2026 What you need to know - Trump says 'no talks or conversations' between the US and Iran are held or scheduled - Syria, US, Turkey condemn Israeli strikes in Idlib - HRW says UN peacekeepers must remain in Lebanon Read below for a roundup of the latest headlines on the Iran war and other developments in the Middle East region on Tuesday, August 18, 2026.

Tired of missing our real-time updates? Click here to add us as a Preferred Source on Google. Then tap the "Star" or "Preferred" to keep DW News at the top of your feed. Syria, US condemn Israeli strikes on military base Eight Israeli airstrikes hit an unused airbase in northwestern Syria's Idlib province early on Tuesday, Syrian state media reported, in attacks widely condemned by Damascus and Washington.

The attacks struck the runway and storage facilities at Abu al-Duhur base, Syrian state-run broadcaster Al-Ikhbariya reported, some 70 kilometers (43.5 miles) from the Turkish border. Turkey is a key ally of Syria's interim government, in power since ousting former President Bashar Assad in a December 2024 lightning offensive.

Read our full report on the Israeli strikes here. 'No talks or conversations' with Iran, Trump says US President Donald Trump stressed on Tuesday that no talks or conversations between Washington and Tehran were being held or were scheduled. "The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, claiming that the strategic Strait of Hormuz is "open and operating," in contradiction to Iranian reports.

"All water mines have been removed or detonated," Trump said of the strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil transited before the war began in late February. Trump's latest statement came after a 60-day negotiating period between the US and Iran ended with no clear resolution, causing stock markets to largely fall and interest rates to spike on Tuesday.

Earlier on Tuesday, the British military's UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a projectile hit a ship as it sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz. Welcome to our coverage Thank you for joining us as we bring you the latest on the situation in the Middle East, where US President Donald Trump has once again dismissed any potential breakthrough in negotiations with Iran, saying no talks or conversations are currently going on.

This comes a day after his son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner was in Israel, discussing with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ways to advance Trump's peace plan in Gaza. On Tuesday, Israel struck a military airbase in Syria, drawing condemnation from Washington.

Elsewhere in the region, Human Rights Watch is warning of the planned withdrawal of UN peacekeeping troops from Lebanon after their mandate expires this year.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

President Trump stated that no talks with Iran are taking place or scheduled and asserted that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, contradicting reports from his envoy, Jared Kushner, who indicated that conversations were ongoing. Meanwhile, Iranian officials claim the strait will stay closed until the U.

S. lifts sanctions and releases frozen assets, conditions that remain unmet.

Location: Iran