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strikeApr 14, 2026

Oil Pulls Back as IEA Cuts Demand Outlook | OilPrice.com

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Oil prices have dipped below $100 as weaker demand outlooks and a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions shift market focus to upcoming diplomatic talks and potential escalation risks. Calm Seas, High Stakes: Hormuz Traffic Crawls as Gulf Freight Costs Surge - The first days of the US blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports have so far been largely uneventful as several Iran-linked tankers managed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz without any interference. - At the same time, most of tankers were moving into the Persian Gulf and so far only two ships managed to move out of the Gulf since Monday afternoon, with no Iranian crude shipments seen so far. - Tehran might be wary of sending crude tankers through the Hormuz, potentially to be intercepted by the US Navy, claiming they’ll temporarily pause shipments before the next round of talks. - Pakistani sources indicate that this weekend could see another round of US-Iranian negotiations after the first round of Islamabad talks on April 11-12 yielded no results. - Average daily transits through the Hormuz before the war averaged 135 per day, falling to 8-10 transits per day in April so far. - The lack of diplomatic progress and Trump’s declared counter-blockade have started to push freight rates up again, with Gulf-China VLCC charter rates now rebounding above $80/tonne, the equivalent of $11/barrel. Market Movers - Italy's oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has announced the discovery of commercial reserves of natural gas with its 1-4/16 exploration well offshore Libya, some 95 km from the country's coast in the Pelagian Basin. - UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has agreed to purchase stakes in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia, marking its entry to the nascent oil producer, farming into plays operated by frontier driller Eco Atlantic. - US oil services giant Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) said it would sell its unit, Waygate Technologies, to Sweden-based Hexagon for $1.45 billion in cash, continuing its strategy of divesting non-core assets. - French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has signed a preliminary agreement with Turkey's TPAO to explore the country's Black Sea waters for oil, only three years after pulling out of gas exploration in adjacent Bulgaria's offshore. - Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported another deepwater discovery in the Campos Basin some 200 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, finding commercial reserves of oil within Block-C-M-477. Tuesday, April 14, 2026 The IEA’s drastic slashing of 2026 global demand growth and the awkward lull in US-Iran confrontation have pushed oil prices lower so far this week, with ICE Brent back at trading several dollars below the $100 per barrel mark. Unless the US blockade of the Arabian Sea turns to a kinetic phase over the upcoming days, the second round of Islamabad talks will shape the futures curve of crude oil. Chevron Expands Its Footprint in Venezuela. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will increase its stake in Venezuela's Petroindependencia project from 34% to 49%, whilst also getting an unspecified stake in the newly formed Ayacucho joint venture with PDVSA, boosting its outlook profile in the country. IEA Warns of a Giant Wave of Demand Destruction. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will contract this year by 80,000 b/d, the first annual decline in consumption since the COVID-19 peak year of 2020, down more than 700,000 b/d compared to last month's forecast. China's Appetite for Saudi Oil Wanes. Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has received the lowest volume of monthly nominations from Chinese term buyers in history, with only 18 million barrels of China-bound oil expected to load in May, dropping by 750,000 b/d from April. Oman Offers New Exploration Blocks. Benefitting from a reputation boost after the US-Iran war has largely left its upstream industry unscathed, the government of Oman is now offering 5 concession areas in the eastern and central parts of the Middle Eastern country, covering a total of 53,275 km2. China Continues to Import Oil, Despite Iran War. China's crude oil imports averaged 11.77 million b/d in March, only 2.8% lower year-over-year despite the loss of most Middle Eastern supplies, even though refinery utilization rates have dipped below 70% Related: Trump Signals High Gas Prices Through November Midterms Philippines Seeks US Waiver on Russian Imports. The Philippines' Ministry of Energy has asked the US Treasury Department for a waiver to continue importing Russian crude oil and petroleum products, claiming that the country needs more 'options' to maintain stable energy supplies. India Hints at Further Hormuz Passages Ahead. The Indian government said that it had ‘good contacts' with Iranian authorities on potential passage of Indian ships via the Strait of Hormuz, after at least 8 India-flagged vessels have managed to leave the Persian Gulf since the US-Iran war started. BP's New CEO Eyes Splitting of Company into Two. BP's new chief executive Meg O'Neill is considering splitting the UK-based energy giant into two units, creating a business focused solely on oil and gas exploration and another covering refining, distribution and retail operations. Methanol Tanker Breaks Trump's Hormuz Blockade. An Iran-linked but Chinese-owned tanker carrying methanol to China became the first ship moving out of the Persian Gulf to breach the Trump administration's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, lowering risks of immediate escalation in the seas. Financial Organizations Warn Against Energy Hoarding. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank launched a joint call against hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls on commodities, claiming protectionist measures exacerbate the impact of the Hormuz Strait closure. Brazil Wants Its Refinery Back. Brazil's state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) is reportedly in initial talks with Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala to repurchase the 300,000 b/d Mataripe refinery, sold five years ago for $1.7 billion, claiming it is running at only 60% of its capacity. India Buys Its 1st Iranian Cargoes Since 2019. India's largest state-owned refiner IOC purchased the country's first Iranian oil cargo in seven years, with the Curacao-flagged Jaya tanker delivering 2 million barrels of oil to the port of Odisha, with privately owned Reliance taking a similar VLCC cargo to Sikka. Russia Imposes Export Controls on Helium. Following the loss of Qatari helium supply for the next 1-2 years, the global chipmaking industry is facing shortages of a key component for chip lithography as Russia has imposed export controls, potentially taking 10% of global supply off the market. Dr. Copper Hopes for a Quick End to War. Copper prices climbed to their highest in more than a month after Iran confirmed its readiness for second-round negotiations with the United States, with the benchmark three-month ME contract trading above $13,180/tonne on hopes of a potential deal. By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com - Oil Soars 7%, OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast As Trump Moves to Block Iran Ports - EU Considers Lower Energy Taxes as Hormuz Crisis Drives Costs Higher - BP Joins Shell and TotalEnergies in Namibia's Offshore Rush

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  • Tom KoolBy Tom Kool

    Oil prices have dipped below $100 as weaker demand outlooks and a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions shift market focus to upcoming diplomatic talks and potential escalation risks. Calm Seas, High Stakes: Hormuz Traffic Crawls as Gulf Freight Costs Surge - The first days of the US block

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President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Location: Tehran
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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

Location: Tehran
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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

Location: Tehran
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Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran