The United States has succeeded in loosening Iran's grip over the Strait of Hormuz while virtually shutting down Iran's own exports. But the conflict is far from over and remains costly for both sides. The economic pressure on Iran has yet to spark an uprising.

And its leaders may choose military escalation instead of backing down. The price of Brent crude surged above $100 on Wednesday. The U.S. military deployment to maintain a blockade and help ships through the strait is costly. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are meanwhile stepping up attacks on Saudi Arabia.

That injects even more uncertainty into global oil markets.

U.S. and Israeli military operations initiated in February have remained ongoing, with an apparent lack of diplomatic progress since a June agreement collapsed, resulting in a stalemate characterized by low-level combat and economic strain on Iran. While U.

S. actions have reportedly disrupted Iran’s oil exports and its influence in the Strait of Hormuz, these measures have not precipitated an internal uprising, and escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have contributed to Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel.

Analysts and U.S. officials have noted the absence of a clear exit strategy, with domestic concerns rising over sustained high fuel prices leading up to midterm elections.

Some authors have characterized recent geopolitical tensions as a broader conflict initiated by the People's Republic of China rather than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. They cite allegations including a 2019 "People's War" declaration, disputed narratives regarding the origins of the pandemic, and claims of foreign interference in the 2020 U.

S. presidential election. These assertions involve significant unverified claims and controversial interpretations of historical events that remain subjects of debate among analysts.

Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan over the weekend, with the Pentagon confirming light material damage though initially withholding specific casualty or loss details. While unverified social media footage suggested significant impacts, CBS News reported based on anonymous officials that several US military aircraft were damaged, including at least one A-10 Thunderbolt potentially being knocked out of commission.