Summary

Sudan’s War Explained 2026: Army, RSF and Their Backers Horn of Africa · Explainer Key Facts - Who is fighting The Sudanese Armed Forces under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, since April 2023. - The map The army holds Khartoum and most of the centre and east. The RSF holds El Fasher, taken in October 2025, and the fighting centres on Kordofan and Blue Nile. - The toll About 8.6 million people are displaced inside Sudan, and about 3.8 million Sudanese are refugees or asylum seekers abroad. - Hunger Nearly 19.5 million people face crisis-level hunger or worse, and a UN-backed alert on 12 October 2026 warned of rising famine risk in Darfur and Kordofan. - The backers Outside powers back both sides, and the UAE, named as the RSF’s main sponsor by Crisis Group, denies it. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Eritrea favour the army. - The talks Washington has proposed a 90-day humanitarian truce, and Burhan said on 15 October 2026 that Sudan backs US peace efforts. - Prediction markets Polymarket gives an 11.5% chance of a Sudan civil war ceasefire by 31 December 2026 (16 October, 5:17 a.m. ET). Sudan war explained: since April 2023 the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have fought for control of the country. The RSF is a paramilitary force led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. The UN calls the result the world’s worst hunger and displacement crisis. Washington has proposed a 90-day humanitarian truce, but the army has resisted it. How the War Began in April 2023 The army is the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Its rival, the RSF, is a paramilitary force that answers to Hemedti. The two men co-led a military takeover in October 2021 that ended Sudan’s civilian-led transition, the US Treasury said in January 2025. They turned on each other in April 2023, and the UN calls the RSF the army’s former ally. A UN Panel of Experts report of April 2025 found that, by July 2024, Burhan still refused to engage with the RSF. It added that the RSF had not met the withdrawal protocols of the Jeddah Declaration of May 2023. This Sudan war explained guide sits beside our Sudan in the Horn of Africa profile of the country. Sudan has about 51.7 million people, the World Bank estimated for 2025, and a coast on the Red Sea. Who Controls What in 2026 Crisis Group wrote in February 2026 that the army controls Khartoum and most of Sudan’s centre and east, which includes Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. Security Council Report said in October 2026 that the army also holds the reopened corridor between Khartoum and El Obeid. The RSF took El Fasher, the army’s last major stronghold in Darfur, on 26 October 2025 after an 18-month siege, UN News reported. In a report of 3 September 2026, UN investigators said conduct during the takeover displayed hallmarks of genocide. Fighting has since moved to Kordofan, which the UN-backed hunger monitor IPC calls the epicentre of Sudan’s conflict. More than 300,000 people have been forced from their homes there since October 2025, it said on 12 October 2026. El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, lives under siege-like conditions, Security Council Report said in October 2026. The RSF keeps striking the city with drones while the army holds the road to Khartoum. In Blue Nile, the RSF and an allied armed group, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, recaptured Kurmuk and Geissan in mid-August 2026. Ed Damazin, the state capital, came under assault on 4 September, Security Council Report said. Army (SAF) Leader: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan Holds: Khartoum, the Khartoum to El Obeid corridor, and most of the centre and east Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Leader: Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti Holds: El Fasher in North Darfur and parts of West Kordofan Contested Fronts: El Obeid and North Kordofan, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile The Human Toll The International Organization for Migration counts 8.6 million people displaced inside Sudan, UN News reported in September 2026. Darfur hosts 65 percent of them, and more than 700,000 shelter in Tawila alone. The UN refugee agency’s statistics show about 3.8 million Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers abroad at the end of 2025. Chad hosted about 1.33 million of them, Egypt about 834,000, Libya about 639,000 and South Sudan about 571,000. The IPC found in May 2026 that nearly 19.5 million people, about 41 percent of Sudan, faced crisis-level hunger or worse. Nearly 135,000 were in Catastrophe, its worst phase, and 14 areas of Darfur and South Kordofan faced a risk of famine. On 12 October 2026 the IPC warned of rising famine risk in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan, where drought now covers more than half of Sudan. Surveys of two camps in Eastern Jebel Marra found acute malnutrition among children at 38 and 30.8 percent, above the famine threshold. On 9 October 2026 a drone strike near a displacement camp in Blue Nile killed at least 30 people, Sudan Tribune reported. Local authorities blamed the RSF, which did not immediately respond. As of 8 October 2026, less than half of the humanitarian appeal for Sudan had been funded, UN News said. The IPC’s Famine Review Committee called the situation a humanitarian catastrophe of historic proportions. The Outside Backers Outside support keeps both sides supplied, the UN’s independent Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan said on 3 September 2026. It found reasonable grounds to believe that the army used foreign-supplied drones in operations that harmed civilians. It found reasonable grounds to believe recruiters in Colombia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) supplied the RSF through Chad, southeastern Libya and Bosaso, Somalia. It documented up to 2,000 former Colombian military contractors working with RSF drones and artillery. Human Rights Watch alleged in May 2026 that the UAE played a role in deploying Colombian fighters to the RSF. The UAE has said it categorically rejects any claims of providing any form of support to either warring party. Crisis Group wrote in February 2026 that the UAE is the RSF’s chief sponsor, and that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Eritrea favour the army. It added that the army accuses Ethiopia of helping the RSF, including through an alleged RSF training camp in Benishangul-Gumuz. On 4 October 2026 the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia adopted the El Alamein Joint Declaration on Red Sea governance, Security Council Report said. Our guides to Eritrea and Somalia cover two of those capitals. Russia, China, Pakistan and the three African members of the Security Council wanted the Darfur arms embargo renewed without widening it. The United States wanted it extended to all of Sudan, and on 8 October 2026 the Council adopted a two-month rollover. Backing the army Egypt: Close wartime ally, reported by Crisis Group (2026) Saudi Arabia: Favours the army, reported by Crisis Group (2026) Eritrea: Sided with the army and trained allied militias, reported by Crisis Group (2026) Backing the RSF UAE: Called the RSF’s chief sponsor by Crisis Group (2026); alleged, and the UAE denies it Colombia and UAE networks: Reasonable grounds to believe they supplied fighters and weapons, documented by the UN mission (2026) Ethiopia: Military and logistical help alleged by the army (2025 and 2026); no independent finding Why It Matters for the Red Sea Sudan’s coast and its main port, Port Sudan, sit on the shipping lane that our Bab el-Mandeb analysis describes. Russia and Sudan signed a preliminary naval base deal in late 2020, but a military source told Sudan Tribune in December 2025 that Sudan had frozen it. Egypt hosts about 834,000 Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers by the UN refugee agency’s end-2025 count. Human Rights Watch reported in July 2026 that Egypt arrested and deported some of them, while our guide to Ethiopia shows how that neighbour is pulled in. Chad hosts the most refugees, and Crisis Group wrote on 28 August 2026 that Chad blames Sudan’s army for strikes on a convoy. On 10 October 2026 a strike near the Ethiopian border reportedly killed 41 displaced people. Our report on the Blue Nile drone strike covers the 9 October attack. Burhan’s ties with Eritrea are the subject of our report on his visit to Asmara. Peace Efforts The Geneva talks of 16 to 23 August 2024, organised by Saudi Arabia and the United States, did not end the fighting. The army declined to attend, the UN Panel of Experts reported. The main diplomatic track is the Quad, made up of the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Security Council Report expects it to meet the Quintet, a group of African, European, Arab and UN bodies, in Switzerland on 20 and 21 October 2026. Washington has proposed a 90-day humanitarian truce to be agreed without preconditions, Sudan Tribune reported on 15 October 2026. The army has resisted it, and on the same day Burhan sent a message to President Donald Trump saying Sudan is committed to US-sponsored peace efforts. The army wants the RSF to leave the cities it occupies before or alongside any truce, a Sudan Tribune analysis wrote on 21 September 2026. The RSF backs a humanitarian truce but objects to parts of the withdrawal plan. The US reportedly withheld a visa for Burhan ahead of his address to the UN General Assembly in September 2026, Security Council Report said. The Secretary-General said he was deeply concerned that it had not been issued. What the Markets Say Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them. Polymarket’s market on a Sudan civil war ceasefire gives an 11.5% chance of one by 31 December 2026 (16 October, 5:17 a.m. ET). The event has drawn about US$120,000 in bets, and the December contract alone about US$15,000. A separate Polymarket market gives a 12.0% chance that Eritrea invades Ethiopia by 31 December 2026, with about US$99,000 wagered. Crisis Group warned in February 2026 that such a war would overlap with Sudan’s, as our pillar guide to Horn of Africa geopolitics explains. What It Means for US Readers For US readers the Sudan war explained here matters first as a sanctions story. The Treasury sanctioned Hemedti on 7 January 2025 and Burhan on 16 January 2025, and Human Rights Watch notes it targeted the Colombian recruitment network in December 2025. Washington leads the drafting of the Sudan sanctions text at the Security Council. Companies and banks with Gulf, Egyptian or Red Sea exposure should watch the sanctions lists, because the network the UN describes crosses the UAE, Chad, Libya and Colombia. Sudan once held 12 to 13 percent of the global sesame market, a UN Development Programme official said in September 2026. Its share has since fallen to six percent. For shippers, Sudan’s war adds a second unstable shore to a strait that is already under pressure. Our Horn of Africa hub follows each of these threads across the region. What Is Not Known Even a Sudan war explained in detail leaves gaps, and no verified death toll for the war has been published. The UN human rights office counted at least 269 civilian deaths in Kordofan between 25 October and early December 2025 and said the real figure is likely higher. The full chain of arms supply is not public. The UAE denies backing the RSF, and the public summary of the UN mission’s report does not say who supplied the army’s drones. Whether Ethiopia is helping the RSF is not established. Security Council Report describes the claims only as allegations. Whether the army will accept the 90-day truce is open, as is whether the RSF will agree to leave the cities it holds. Whether El Obeid holds against the RSF drone campaign is the most immediate military question. Frequently Asked Questions What is the Sudan war about? The Sudan war explained in one line is a fight since April 2023 between two former allies, the army under General Burhan and the RSF under Hemedti. Both men face US sanctions. Who backs the RSF and the Sudanese army? Crisis Group names the UAE as the RSF’s chief sponsor, which the UAE denies, and Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Eritrea as backers of the army. UN investigators said in September 2026 that foreign suppliers strengthened the drone forces of both sides. How many people have fled the war in Sudan? The International Organization for Migration counts 8.6 million people displaced inside Sudan, as reported in September 2026. The UN refugee agency counted about 3.8 million Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers abroad at the end of 2025. Is there a ceasefire in Sudan? No ceasefire is in force, and Washington has proposed a 90-day humanitarian truce that the army has resisted. Burhan sent a message to President Trump on 15 October 2026 saying Sudan is committed to US-sponsored peace efforts. Sources: UN News, Outside forces fuel Sudan war, new report finds, 3 September 2026; UN News, Human rights chief Türk renews call for end to spiralling Sudan war, 7 September 2026; UN News, UN agencies warn humanitarian system in Sudan could collapse, 14 September 2026; UN News, Darfur: Healthcare needs outstrip resources as Security Council extends Sudan sanctions, 8 October 2026; UN News, Sudan: Drought and war push Darfur and Kordofan towards famine, 12 October 2026; UN News, Mass displacement, trafficking fears deepen crisis in Sudan’s El Fasher, 27 November 2025; UN News, Kordofan cannot become another El Fasher, Türk warns, 4 December 2025; UN News, Sudan: Rights chief alarmed after at least 57 killed in drone attacks in two days, 18 February 2026; Security Council Report, Sudan: October 2026 Monthly Forecast, October 2026; Security Council Report, Sudan: Briefing and Consultations, 15 October 2026; Security Council Report, Horn of Africa: Closed Consultations, 12 October 2026; IPC, Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation, February to May 2026 and projections, 14 May 2026; UN Panel of Experts on the Sudan, final report of April 2025, 17 April 2025; UNHCR, Refugee Data Finder, Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers by country of asylum, end of 2025; Crisis Group, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa, 18 February 2026; Crisis Group, Sudan: latest analysis and CrisisWatch, October 2026; Human Rights Watch, From Bogotá to El Fasher, 25 May 2026; Human Rights Watch, Egypt: Refugees, Asylum Seekers Arrested, Deported, 7 July 2026; US Treasury, Treasury Sanctions Leader of Sudanese Armed Forces and Weapons Supplier, 16 January 2025; Sudan Tribune, Sudan’s Burhan affirms commitment to US-backed peace efforts, 15 October 2026; Sudan Tribune, Sudan Mediation: New York push to align international positions, 21 September 2026; Sudan Tribune, Drone strike kills 30 at displacement camp in Sudan’s Blue Nile, 9 October 2026; World Bank, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), 2025 estimate; Sudan Tribune, Sudan freezes plans for Russian naval base on Red Sea, 6 December 2025. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error Horn of Africa and the Red Sea - Horn of Africa 2026: Why It Matters and Who Backs Whom - Ethiopia’s Neighbors Explained, Ports, Eritrea, Somalia - Eritrea Explained 2026, a Red Sea Country Guide - Somalia Explained: Al-Shabaab, Somaliland, the Ports and the Fight Over a 2026 Vote Rotate for Best Experience This report is optimized for landscape viewing. Rotate your phone for the full experience.