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diplomacyApr 14, 2026

The Hormuz blockade is as much about China as Iran

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On Monday, the US said vessels in Iranian waters would be subject to “interception, diversion and capture.” If its navy enforces a blockade on ships entering and departing Iranian ports and coastal areas east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, Tehran won’t be able to export a single barrel of oil. The calculus in Washington appears twofold: First, impose an intolerable economic cost on Iran; second, force China to share some of the pain. If Beijing has more at stake, perhaps it will put pressure on Tehran to negotiate, or so the theory goes. The oil math, however, is daunting. Also Read| 'Don't meddle in our affairs': China backs Iran, warns US against interference after Hormuz blockade Tehran must surely have assumed its oil exports would be halted during a war with the US, especially if it closed the Strait of Hormuz. But seven weeks into the war, and despite having closed the waterway, Iran has enjoyed a windfall instead of economic pain. During more than 40 days of fighting, Washington has let Tehran load as many oil tankers as it wished, profiting from rising prices. An even bigger gift was the White House temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian barrels; rather than having to sell crude at a discount, the Islamic Republic was able to charge a premium. According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations, Iran was making about $100 million a day selling its crude before the war. Since Feb. 27, that’s risen to around $175 million a day. Sure, Iran has struggled to repatriate some of the windfall due to banking sanctions. But the extra cash has been large enough to allow Iran to create a cushion. How large? On my math, the additional funds accumulated during the conflict equal about a month’s worth of pre-war oil revenue. If the US enforces the blockade, the Iranian economy will suffer an enormous blow on top of the war destruction; Tehran will need to start shuttering oil wells in the next few days and weeks as its storage tanks fill up. But whether that economic hit translates into a softer negotiation approach remains to be seen. Targeting Iranian oil revenue has been tried before — and it failed. In 2020-2021, when Trump launched a maximum pressure campaign of sanctions, Iranian crude exports dropped to fewer than 250,000 daily barrels for several months just as oil prices were depressed due to the impact of the pandemic. Even allowing for some exports slipping under the radar, Iran was earning no more than $10 million a day selling crude — and it still didn’t buckle. Soon, Beijing would face a greater shortfall. Its only option would be to tap its strategic petroleum reserve, something it’s far avoided so far. Over the past decade, China has built the world’s largest oil emergency stockpile — a multi-layered cache of strategic and commercial reserves with more than one billion barrels. Also Read| The Hormuz blockade is a throwdown the US can't win Washington probably hopes that Beijing will convince Iran to soften its demands at the negotiating table, as it has done previously: In 2023, it brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But most of the leverage Beijing had over Tehran rested on the money it was paying for oil — which will end if the blockade halts exports. “The current ceasefire is highly fragile, with the region at a critical turning point,” China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Monday. “The immediate priority is to prevent a resumption of hostilities and sustain the hard-won truce.” Rather than feel compelled to help achieve a lasting ceasefire, the Chinese Communist Party can take a wait-and-see position by relying on its reserves. Considering the amount of crude it has stockpiled — perhaps preparing for a rainy-day crisis around Taiwan — Beijing can afford to go without Iranian supplies for several weeks. Even a two-month embargo would only see China depleting its emergency reserves by about 10%. In short, the oil math is skewed against the White House. The blockade has a slim chance of working. With apologies to John Maynard Keynes, Iran can remain defiant — and China unconcerned — longer than Trump can remain solvent. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Explore More Stories

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  • SECTIONS The Hormuz blockade is as much about China as Iran Javier Blas; BloombergBy SECTIONS The Hormuz blockade is as much about China as Iran Javier Blas; Bloomberg

    On Monday, the US said vessels in Iranian waters would be subject to “interception, diversion and capture.” If its navy enforces a blockade on ships entering and departing Iranian ports and coastal areas east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, Tehran won

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Key points: Bitcoin diverges from US stocks as Trump says Strait of Hormuz “open” Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD building on the week’s gains as the S&P 500 bounced from 7,696, its lowest level since Aug. 4. BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView This came after US president Donald Trump posted a map of the closed Strait of Hormuz oil route to Truth Social where it was labeled “new US territory.

” Both the US and Iran lay claim to control of Hormuz, with Trump threatening US ally Oman with military action over its plans to work with Iran on charging tolls to shipping traffic. In a subsequent post, Trump confirmed that further diplomacy with Iran was not on the agenda.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he wrote. S&P 500 one-day chart.

Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView As on Monday, oil avoided major volatility, with WTI crude down 1% at the time of writing at $84 per barrel. US government bonds continued to show strain, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.34%, its highest since January 2007.

“Bond prices are sending warnings,” BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu wrote in a research note quoted by the New York Times. Yu said that the surge came as “investors demand more compensation for inflation risk,” while also attributing the upside to government borrowing.

US 30-year bond yields one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView BTC price faces crunch rebound test Updating X followers on BTC/USD, trader and analyst Aksel Kibar eyed the culmination of a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $62,300.

Related: Bitcoin price spike to $64.5K was ‘low-volume liquidity trap’: Analysis “If $BTCUSD is going to rebound, it has to come from here,” he argued on Monday. Kibar offered a $53,000 target in the event of the head-and-shoulders structure failing, with $76,000 a potential upside target should the rebound sustain.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com Previously, Cointelegraph reported that underwater investors were contributing to Bitcoin’s inability to break higher. Its rebound to $64,500 also stopped short of an overhead trend line, the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA).

This moving average is now in place as resistance at $65,827.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Trump says no talks underway with Iran, Hormuz blockade remains in place US president says no discussions are taking place or planned with Tehran and reiterates that the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains fully operational Washington: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks are taking place with Iran and that no discussions are currently scheduled between the two countries.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump also said the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains "in full force and effect." The president did not provide further details regarding US policy towards Iran or any potential future diplomatic engagement.

Trump's comments come amid continued tensions between Washington and Tehran and renewed focus on security and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes.

Location: Tehran
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Iran had “won both the war and diplomacy,” claiming those who initially sought Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” later sought negotiations. Speaking at an event, Araghchi said Iran resisted for days against what he described as “the world’s largest apparent military,” alongside another army claiming military power and with the support of nearly all Western countries and some other states inside and outside the region, according to the Tasnim news agency.

“Those who were seeking unconditional surrender, shortly after the war began, begged for negotiations,” Araghchi said. He claimed Tehran initially rejected a ceasefire and continued fighting until reaching a point where the other side accepted a ceasefire and negotiations “on Iran’s terms.

” “We fought with strength, and we negotiated with strength,” he said, adding that many foreign ministers had told him: “You won both the war and diplomacy.” Araghchi’s remarks came after US President Donald Trump called on Iran on Monday to give up and “raise the white flag.

Location: Tehran
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- Iran demands US lift sanctions and return frozen assets to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Iran's Parliament Speaker warns closure of Strait continues until US ends military threats - Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait, impacting energy security Iran has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets a set of conditions, including the release of frozen Iranian assets, an end to oil sanctions and what Tehran describes as a US blockade and military threats.

Al-Arabiya English reported that Iran's Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Trump administration must meet the conditions before Tehran considers reopening the strategic waterway. “Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Ghalibaf said.

Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. pic.twitter.com/fl2RrKnT1R— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) August 18, 2026 Ghalibaf also warned that Iran was prepared to respond more forcefully depending on the actions of its adversaries.

ALSO READ: 'We Control Hormuz': Trump To Declare Strait As US Territory? Here's What President Says The comments add a new condition to an already fragile diplomatic environment, with the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of concerns over global energy supplies.

Around one-fifth of global oil supply typically passes through the waterway, making any prolonged disruption a major risk for crude markets, shipping and energy security. Earlier, Press TV reported that Ghalibaf is scheduled to travel to Baghdad on Wednesday at the head of a high-level Iranian delegation for discussions with Iraqi leaders.

The talks are expected to cover regional developments and bilateral cooperation, including border security, counterterrorism, economic ties and implementation of existing agreements. Iraqi media have also reported that the agenda could include a proposal concerning Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The visit comes as regional governments grapple with the implications of continued disruption in one of the world's most important energy corridors. ALSO READ: Hormuz Tensions: Another Ship Hit By Unknown Projectile, Says UKMTO Centre The security situation in the waterway has also remained tense.

The UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency, or UKMTO, said a vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. “The Company Security Officer has reported that the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz,” UKMTO said.

The impact damaged the vessel's engine room and resulted in a crew casualty, the agency said. The remaining crew was being assisted by the Omani coastguard. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.

Location: Tehran