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strikeMay 12, 2026

Trump Ready To Raise "Core Of China's Core Interests" In Xi Summit: Daily Schedule & What To Expect

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Trump Ready To Raise "Core Of China's Core Interests" In Xi Summit: Daily Schedule & What To Expect Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to raise the issue of increasingly costly US arms transfers to Taiwan during their bilateral summit at the end of this week, spanning Thursday through Friday. Taiwan of course remains the "core of China's core interests" - as Beijing has in the recent past characterized the issue. While Trump officials have previewed that it will be focused on trade and investment, the White House too is reportedly placing Taiwan and regional geopolitical hot button issues on the agenda. "I'm going to have that discussion with President Xi," Trump told reporters at the White House, specifically on the question of weapons sales. "President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion. That's one of the many things I’ll be talking about." via Reuters Also there's the looming question of the future of the Iran war and blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Currently there's a stalemated situation and supposed ceasefire which is barely holding. By many accounts, Trump was hopeful that the Iran 'excursion' would be wrapped up by now, but it now seems to be sliding into protracted quagmire - critics point out. The WSJ says that Beijing is feeling confident as it prepares to receive Trump and what's looking to be a rather large entourage: But behind the scenes, Beijing feels more emboldened, and more insistent on defending areas it regards as vital to its long-term strategic interests. These include resisting U.S. pressure to relax its grip over global supply chains and fundamentally rebalance trade between the two countries. They also include urging Washington to look the other way as it pressures Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own, and as it projects military power across Asia. “They feel very well about how last year played out,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution and a former U.S. intelligence officer focused on China. “They showed they could weather the storm and the administration had to climb down from the tariffs and spend most of the past year trying to mollify China.” As for more implications of the Iran war dragging on as Trump goes to Beijing, CNBC writes: Iran’s ambassador to China Reza Rahmani Fazli in a Tuesday post on X pressed Tehran's case with Beijing, saying that the relationship between the two is too strong for the U.S. to overcome. The bottom line is that higher energy prices are baked in for the foreseeable future. The price of crude oil makes up about half of the cost of a gallon of gas, according to the Energy Information Administration.  And U.S. elections are less than six months away. The 2026 midterm elections will be a crucial referendum on Trump and the Republican Party as they seek to retain a lock on both chambers in Congress. Trump early Tuesday put out the following message on Truth Social, teasing that the next regime change operations could be unleashed on China's small island-nation ally in America's immediate backyard... For some further big picture analysis on how the Iran gambit has raised the stakes, and made the Beijing summit more unpredictable, the below is some fresh Rabobank commentary outlining related developments to watch: In a case of curious timing, the US just imposed fresh sanctions on individuals and firms involved in facilitating Iranian oil sales to China, and Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao yesterday released a new 30-year shipbuilding plan. That plan anticipates the acquisition of 11 nuclear-powered Trump class battleships, new underwater drones, and an ongoing review to the Ford class aircraft carrier design to increase lethality and reliability while reducing unit costs and production lead times. The planned expansion of the US fleet and shipbuilding industrial base is undoubtedly a reaction to China’s growing naval strength and substantial advantage in production capacity. The message to Xi is an unsubtle one. The FT’s Gideon Rachman characterises Trump as arriving at Xi’s court in a state of supplication, having effectively lost the trade war vs China and the shooting war vs Iran. This perhaps overstates the weakness of Trump’s position by ignoring the fact that the US has tightened its grip on global energy supply chains and has shown that is has the power to put its foot on the hosepipe of Chinese energy imports whenever it likes. In the flurry of commentary over China’s bumper trade surplus in April, it seems to have been missed that import volumes for crude oil were down sharply, but values were higher. Yesterday’s April PPI figures for China also underscored the uncomfortable effects that the Iran war is having on the Chinese industrial economy. Xi will be acutely aware of this, and he will also be aware that the US holds similar power to disrupt Chinese food imports if it was of a mind to do so. Seapower IS power, as the shipbuilding plan should remind us all. In this respect, Trump holds better cards than the FT is giving him credit for. Perhaps it is no coincidence that China bought more soybeans in April than it had done for months. Some more of Trump's latest commentary amid his hope for a 'good' Xi meeting: Trump: If you have the right president, I don't think Taiwan invasion will happen. I have a very good relationship with President Xi. We're 9,500 miles away. He's 67 miles away. But there’s a lot of support for Taiwan from Japan and countries in that area. 2X pic.twitter.com/8ipHIKy4pM — Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) May 12, 2026 Below is a preview of the day-by-day schedule and what to expect, via Newsquawk. *  *  * PREVIEW: Trump-Xi Summit to take place in Beijing on May 14th-15th US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are set to meet in Beijing for the first time since October 2025. The public tone is expected to be warm and friendly, while the substance of the meeting will cover a range of topics. No breakthrough is expected in US-China relations, with attention instead focused on implications for Iran and Taiwan.The situation in Iran will likely be one of the core topics, with some fearing an Iran-for-Taiwan bargain. SCHEDULE Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on the evening of Wednesday, 13th May. The main Trump-Xi talks are expected across Thursday, 14th May and Friday, 15th May. THURSDAY The White House said Trump will meet Xi on Thursday at 10:15 Beijing time / 03:15BST / 22:15EDT. Thursday is expected to be the main ceremonial and diplomatic day, including a welcome ceremony, Temple of Heaven visit, formal bilateral meeting and state banquet. The banquet is scheduled for Thursday at 18:00 Beijing time / 11:00BST / 06:00EDT. FRIDAY Discussions are expected to continue on Friday, including extended talks and a working lunch before Trump’s departure later in the day. AGENDA Iran: A primary focus will be the war in Iran, with the US pressing China to use its influence over Tehran to support de-escalation, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and curb oil-funded escalation. Taiwan: Taiwan is expected to be one of the most sensitive issues, with concern focused on whether Xi pushes Trump for softer US language on Taiwan independence or restraint on arms sales. Russia: The US is expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including revenue flows, dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons-related support. Strategic guardrails: The leaders are expected to discuss a possible formal AI communication channel to manage military and cyber risks, alongside nuclear arms-control issues, although Beijing remains cautious on nuclear arsenal transparency. Commercial: The summit could produce major “big win” announcements, including Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, agricultural products such as soybeans and beef, and energy. Board of Trade/Investment: Proposals are on the table for a bilateral Board of Trade and Board of Investment, designed to manage trade and investment flows through formal channels rather than relying mainly on tariff escalation. DETAILS Iran/Strait of Hormuz Primary summit focus: The war in Iran, which began after US and Israeli strikes on 28th February, is expected to be one of the dominant geopolitical issues at the meeting. US pressure on Beijing: Washington is said to be pressing China to use its influence over Tehran, given China’s role as a major buyer of Iranian oil, to push Iran towards a deal and support efforts to end the conflict. Strait of Hormuz: The US is expected to press China to help secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. China’s position: Beijing has so far avoided joining a US-led pressure campaign against Tehran, while continuing to call for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution. China’s exposure: China’s dependence on Gulf energy flows gives it a direct interest in ending the Hormuz disruption. Sanctions: Days before the summit, on May 11th, the US issued new sanctions against three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China. Taiwan Arms sales: Trump said he will discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, alongside other sensitive issues, including Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai. The Trump admin announced a more than USD 11bln weapons package for Taiwan in December, the largest-ever US weapons package for Taiwan. No policy change: US officials have said the Trump-Xi summit signals no change in longstanding US policy toward Taiwan. China’s position: China said its stance against US arms sales to Taiwan is “consistent and clear.” Beijing continues to frame Taiwan as a core issue and a red line in US-China relations. Semiconductor angle: Taiwan’s strategic importance is also tied to the US technology supply chain, particularly semiconductors and advanced manufacturing. South China Sea: Regional security is likely to come up alongside Taiwan, military communication and wider US-China strategic competition. The South China Sea remains a persistent flashpoint, with US concerns around Chinese military activity and Chinese objections to US regional deployments and alliances in the region, such as the AUKUS security pact. Iran-for-Taiwan Risk Linkage: There has been reporting and speculation that Beijing could seek to trade help on Iran or the Strait of Hormuz for US restraint on Taiwan, including softer language on Taiwan independence or reduced pressure around arms sales. Concerns: The concern is that Beijing may offer help on Iran or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in return for softer US language on Taiwan or restraint on arms sales. Politico reported that diplomats from Asian and European countries are worried Trump could make an off-script statement that appears to shift US policy on Taiwan. Taiwanese officials have expressed concern about being “on the menu” during the Trump-Xi talks. Shift in Language: The key wording risk is a shift from the current US formulation of “we do not support Taiwan independence” to Beijing’s preferred wording of “we oppose Taiwan independence.” Desks suggest that a shift would be significant as Beijing could use it to challenge routine US-Taiwan engagement, including arms sales, lawmaker visits and other political contacts. US Position: Despite the speculation, US officials have publicly stated that US policy toward Taiwan will not change at the summit. China's Backing of Iran and Russia Direct confrontation: Trump is expected to press Xi over China’s economic and material support for Iran and Russia. Iranian oil: China remains a major buyer of Iranian oil, and Washington views those flows as helping Tehran withstand US pressure and finance military activity. Russia links: The US is also expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including whether Chinese trade is helping Moscow sustain its war effort. Dual-use goods: Officials cited concerns around Chinese dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons exports to Iran and Russia. Iran weapons sanctions: On 8th May, the US imposed sanctions on individuals and companies, including China- and Hong Kong-based entities, accused of helping Iran obtain materials for Shahed drones and ballistic missiles. Iran oil sanctions: On 11 May, the US imposed separate sanctions on three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China. 50% tariff threat: Trump previously threatened 50% tariffs on imports from countries supplying military weapons to Iran, with no exemptions. Trade Trump tariff stance: Trump commented that the US needs more tariffs, keeping tariff risk firmly on the table. Trade-truce extension: The two sides are expected to discuss whether to extend the existing trade-war truce. Unclear timing: A US official said it is not yet clear whether the agreement will be extended this week, but expressed confidence that it will eventually be extended. October meeting: Trump and Xi's last meeting in October in South Korea resulted in a pause to a trade war that had seen the US impose triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threaten rare earth restrictions. Tariff Legality: Trump has vowed to reimpose some tariffs through alternative legal avenues after the Supreme Court said in February. Investments Trade and investment forums: Reports suggested that the US and China are expected to agree on forums to facilitate mutual trade and investment. Board of Trade / Board of Investment: A Board of Trade and Board of Investment may be formally announced, although officials said these mechanisms may require further work before implementation. Chinese purchase announcements: China is expected to announce purchases related to Boeing (BA) aircraft, US agriculture and energy. Sectors to watch: The main areas to watch are aircraft, agriculture, energy, trade flows, investment access, market-opening commitments, payments access, technology restrictions and regulatory approvals. Delegation: Executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) are part of, or linked to, the US business delegation. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending due to earnings, while NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is not attending. AI AI channel: Trump and Xi are expected to discuss creating a formal US-China communication channel on AI-related security risks. US concern: US officials are increasingly concerned about advanced Chinese AI models and their potential military, cyber and intelligence uses. Military risk: Talks are expected to cover AI risks in autonomous weapons, cyber operations and military decision-making. Nuclear guardrails: AI may also be discussed alongside nuclear stability, including keeping AI out of nuclear launch decisions. Export controls: Any AI dialogue will sit against the backdrop of US chip controls and wider tech restrictions on China. Nuclear arms-control US stance: Washington has long sought nuclear arms-control talks with Beijing. China's stance: China has privately told the US it has no current interest in sitting down for nuclear arms-control discussions. No breakthrough: Expectations for a breakthrough on nuclear arms control remain low, but even agreement to continue dialogue would be net constructive. Fentanyl US stance: The US is expected to press China on precursor chemicals and enforcement against supply chains linked to the opioid crisis. Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 15:00

Perspectives

Iranian Official

From the Iranian government's perspective, the US continues its pattern of foreign aggression by prolonging the conflict in Iran and attempting to dominate the Strait of Hormuz, yet faces resolute resistance in defense of national sovereignty. As Trump engages Xi on Taiwan amid this regional quagmire, Tehran affirms that such interventions will not erode Iran's core interests or control over vital waterways.

Israeli

As Israel confronts an existential threat from Iran's proxy network—including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi forces blockading the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire—Beijing's emboldened stance on Taiwan signals deeper Chinese support for Tehran's axis, complicating US arms flows vital to regional deterrence. Defensive necessity demands that Washington prioritize countering this interconnected challenge during the Trump-Xi summit, lest proxy escalation and energy strangulation endanger Israel's survival.

Neutral

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold bilateral talks Thursday through Friday, with Taiwan and trade issues expected on the agenda according to officials. Trump stated he plans to discuss US arms transfers to Taiwan, which Beijing has described as a core interest. Reports also reference the status of a ceasefire involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz as a potential topic.

Western

Trump is set to press Xi on curbing Chinese coercion over Taiwan during this week’s summit, underscoring U.S. resolve to sustain precision arms transfers that neutralize Beijing’s military threats and safeguard regional stability. While trade and investment remain priorities, the agenda will also target China’s support for Iran amid the stalled Hormuz blockade, aiming to restore secure maritime access and prevent a prolonged quagmire. Washington views the talks as an opportunity to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness with clear strategic objectives.

Pro-Peace

At the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, planned talks on US arms transfers to Taiwan and the stalled Iran conflict risk fueling dangerous escalations, threatening catastrophic civilian casualties across the Taiwan Strait and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz where millions already face economic ruin and supply shortages. These geopolitical maneuvers prolong human suffering and quagmires that critics say could have been avoided. Renewed diplomatic engagement, rather than arms deals or military posturing, offers the only path to de-escalation and protecting vulnerable populations.

Global South

From a Global South vantage, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit underscores Beijing’s insistence on sovereignty over Taiwan as a core interest long undermined by US arms transfers, reflecting persistent neo-colonial patterns of external powers dictating regional outcomes. Parallel US entanglements in the Iran stalemate and Hormuz blockade further expose institutional failures in multilateral bodies, prolonging disruptions to energy flows vital for non-aligned economies. Beijing’s reported confidence signals a pushback against such dynamics, prioritizing non-interference over Western geopolitical agendas.

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Trump Ready To Raise "Core Of China's Core Interests" In Xi Summit: Daily Schedule & What To Expect Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to raise the issue of increasingly costly US arms transfers to Taiwan during their bilateral summit at the end of this week, s…

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President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Location: Tehran
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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

Location: Tehran
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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

Location: Tehran
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Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran