Summary

Trump's Iran strategy mixes sanctions and war threats as deadlock deepens Donald Trump has settled on a two-track Iran strategy of sanctions and military pressure. Domestic politics, Hormuz disruptions and Israel-linked regional tensions are keeping both sides locked in place. US President Donald Trump appears to have settled on a two-track strategy on Iran, combining economic pressure with the threat of a sharp military escalation, as the conflict shows little sign of easing more than six months after it began. The approach has not forced Tehran to back down, even as recent US strikes and Iranian retaliation have again raised fears of a wider regional war. At the same time, the Trump administration's new sanctions drive, called "Operation Economic Outcast", has made only limited progress so far. With energy prices rising, the global economy under strain and the administration's poll numbers slipping before November's midterm elections, the stand-off remains unresolved, with both Washington and Tehran seen as unwilling to give ground because of pressures at home. Trump said on Wednesday that he did not think the conflict would last "much longer", but dismissed suggestions that its unpopularity and high petrol prices linked to Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz would hurt Republicans in the elections. "It doesn't matter. And I'm not affected by the election," he told reporters. "I'm not running. But my party is running, and I'm going to help my party. But I think my party respects the fact that we're not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon." A regional diplomat briefed on the matter said the current deadlock reflected the domestic priorities of both countries, with the midterm elections weighing on Trump and Republicans and Iran dealing with its own internal crises. The diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said neither side was willing to blink first. The diplomat also said talks, including those between Iran and Oman or even Iran and the US, would not move forward without addressing Israel, which was described as the initial catalyst for the war. The diplomat was also sceptical of the administration's new sanctions plan, saying the threats needed more explanation than Washington had provided so far. The administration announced its latest push to isolate Iran economically last week, warning countries still trading with Tehran that they could face US retaliation, but the effort has started slowly. So far, only one branch of an Egyptian bank in the United Arab Emirates has been targeted. Experts say the sanctions would have to hit Iran's main trading partners, chiefly China, as well as India and Russia, to have real impact. But Trump is reluctant to target China as he prepares to host President Xi Jinping later this month. Trump has also insisted that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz, though shipping through the waterway remains well below pre-war levels because of the risk of attack unless vessels comply with an Iranian vetting system near its coast. Lloyd's List Intelligence said there were 102 transits last week and 126 the week before, compared with 130 or more a day before the war. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said on Thursday, "As President Trump said, the strait is open, and all mines have been cleared. The naval blockade remains in full force and effect, and Operation Economic Outcast is underway to sever every remaining economic lifeline sustaining the regime." The White House has repeatedly highlighted the economic damage already done to Iran, pointing to high inflation and the steep fall in the value of its currency. US officials have described Iran's financial system as "one big house of cards". Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the main cost for Iran would be economic, but added, "we reserve the right ... to take military action when necessary -- not just to protect ourselves but to prevent them from being able to threaten others as well." He also said, "They're going to continue to feel the squeeze." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used even harsher language this week, saying, "We are burying the head of the Iranian snake. The snake doesn't know it's dead yet, but it will stop wiggling when the sun goes down. And so the Iranian regime -- they are in demise, and they will figure it out." For the US, the situation is further complicated by signs of divisions within Iran's leadership between moderates who are more open to diplomacy and hardliners who favour a more confrontational path. President Masoud Pezeshkian remains one of the most prominent voices calling for a negotiated solution, but hardliners appear to have gained the upper hand, and Tehran has continued to target US interests and allies in the region in response to military strikes. Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group said, "This kind of a hybrid approach -- the combination of military force, blockade and economic pressure -- that is the only option that seems to be available to the United States at this moment." He added that it remained "a battle of endurance between the two sides". Amr Hamzawy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said the situation was worsening because neither side was satisfied with the current outcome and because both were concerned about how they would be viewed at home. "The Trump administration is afraid of being portrayed in the US as an administration that failed to end a military campaign successfully, and that's going to impact the midterm elections," he said. "And the Iranians, especially the Revolutionary Guard, are quite afraid of appearing as if they are submitting to US sanctions with no actions on their side, which might hurt them domestically." Overall, the conflict remains stuck between military pressure and economic coercion, with Washington and Tehran both showing little sign of stepping back. The US says the sanctions and blockade will tighten further, while analysts and diplomats say domestic politics, the Strait of Hormuz and the unresolved regional issues continue to stand in the way of any clear end to the crisis. With PTI Inputs