Analysts suggest the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in February, has stalled with low-level fighting persisting and no diplomatic progress following the collapse of a June agreement. While U.S. actions have reportedly restricted Iranian oil exports and increased economic pressure, these measures have not triggered an internal uprising, raising concerns about potential military escalation.

Meanwhile, renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, with President Trump acknowledging that high fuel costs are likely to persist through the upcoming midterm elections.

The United States has succeeded in loosening Iran's grip over the Strait of Hormuz while virtually shutting down Iran's own exports. But the conflict is far from over and remains costly for both sides. The economic pressure on Iran has yet to spark an uprising.

And its leaders may choose military escalation instead of backing down. The price of Brent crude surged above $100 on Wednesday. The U.S. military deployment to maintain a blockade and help ships through the strait is costly. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are meanwhile stepping up attacks on Saudi Arabia.

That injects even more uncertainty into global oil markets.

Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan over the weekend, with the Pentagon confirming light material damage though initially withholding specific casualty or loss details. While unverified social media footage suggested significant impacts, CBS News reported based on anonymous officials that several US military aircraft were damaged, including at least one A-10 Thunderbolt potentially being knocked out of commission.

The IMF stated it is closely monitoring the potential economic impacts of proposed US measures to tighten restrictions on Iran and enforce secondary sanctions, with a fuller assessment planned for upcoming reports. This economic pressure follows a shift from large-scale military strikes to sanctions, occurring after both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June that included an immediate cessation of hostilities.