ConflictClarifier

2026 Iran-Gulf Crisis Tracker
CC
Events Archive
strikeSep 3, 2026

Ukraine's Drone Warfare Devouring 4% Of Global Germanium Demand As China Chokes Supplies

Summary

Ukraine's Drone Warfare Devouring 4% Of Global Germanium Demand As China Chokes Supplies Our coverage of rare earths dates back to President Trump's first trade war, when we warned that "Rare Earths Are China's Most Potent Weapon In A Trade War." What followed was predictable. During the 2025 trade war, Beijing steadily tightened its control over exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten and a growing list of other critical industrial metals to the West and its allies. These restrictions represent another weapon in Beijing's economic-warfare toolkit, aimed squarely at the most vulnerable chokepoints in Western defense, semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing supply chains. The latest signals suggest that bilateral tensions are once again deteriorating. China was the sole G20 holdout on language addressing trade imbalances and an unsustainable export-oriented economic model, while Treasury has widened its Iran sanctions campaign to include Chinese entities, refiners and shipping networks. The response from the Trump administration and other Western governments has been to accelerate efforts to restart dormant mines, expand processing capacity and build critical minerals supply chains outside Beijing's control. Our coverage of this trade began with an April 2024 note titled "Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed By Morgan Stanley," which identified MP Materials as one of the miners best positioned to benefit from the Trump-era push to restore domestic critical material supply chains. By early July 2025, we again highlighted MP Materials as one of the clearest stocks for positioning around this decoupling theme. Just weeks later, shares of the rare earth miner surged from around $30 toward triple-digit territory. Wall Street may not fully recognize the decoupling theme until regulatory restrictions translate into physical shortages. Some analysts are beginning to understand the grim outlook facing the West. But Beijing does not need to announce a formal trade embargo to shock markets into a crisis. Slowing export approvals, restricting volumes, or denying shipments to select end users have already made it clear that the West must rebuild critical supply chains outside China, either domestically or through friend-shoring. Another indication that Western critical material supply chains could become a major decoupling theme for Wall Street is the emerging global rearmament cycle. BMO analyst George Heppel noted that the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to account for more than 4% of global germanium demand this year, with an estimated 15 million drones set to be deployed in an environment where China has weaponized critical materials supply chains, given its control of much of the space.  "With a staggering 15 million drones estimated to be deployed in the Russia-Ukraine war this year, it is safe to say that the world has entered the era of mass drone warfare," Heppel said. Heppel explained: "Our analysis suggests that gallium, germanium and NdFeB magnets are the most important enablers of drone warfare, with gallium and germanium (alongside heavy rare earths) also being vital components required for counterdrone systems." "Consequently, we expect gallium, germanium and rare earth supply security to continue to be a major priority in the West in the face of this growing threat," he added. Heppel said the massive deployment of drones has opened a new front in the global scramble for germanium, gallium and rare earth magnets. These critical materials are used throughout the drone and counter-drone parts ecosystem, including in systems designed to detect, track, jam and destroy one-way attack drones. The numbers surrounding drone-driven demand for critical materials are staggering: Drones now account for more than 80% of enemy targets destroyed by Ukrainian forces. Governments and military alliances have pledged roughly $150 billion for drone and counter-drone capabilities since 2025. About one-third of that planned spending is directed toward counter-drone systems. Drone warfare could consume 4.3% of global germanium demand this year. Heppel said this is only the beginning of a "high-volume, high-precision" era of warfare that combines industrial-scale drone production with precision-strike capabilities. The transition in warfare technology is making militaries increasingly dependent on these obscure metals, much of whose production and processing is controlled by China. That represents a major vulnerability for the West. Heppel estimates that the average FPV drone contains 46 grams of neodymium-iron-boron magnet material, 0.1 gram of gallium and 1 gram of germanium. Across 15 million drones, this translates into annual battlefield demand of roughly: 690 metric tons of NdFeB magnets 1.5 tons of gallium 15 tons of germanium Global germanium demand was estimated at just 343 tons in 2025, meaning the Russia-Ukraine battlefield could consume more than 4% of worldwide supply this year. That source of demand did not exist before the war.  The Squeeze On Prices... Germanium is used in thermal-imaging lenses and in the fiber-optic cables attached to tethered one-way attack drones. China's grip on germanium supply is becoming increasingly alarming (read here) as the US and allied governments commit an estimated $150 billion to drone and counter-drone capabilities. Heppel told clients that several publicly traded companies offer exposure to the critical minerals theme: MP Materials (MP-NYSE; $54.75; Outperform rated by Max Yerrill and Raj Ray) stands out for its NdPr magnet materials business, production of strategic rare earths such as samarium and gadolinium, and efforts to support drone manufacturing through Project Swarm. Neo Performance Materials (NEO-TSX; $31.38; Outperform rated) provides downstream exposure through rare earth separation, magnet production and refined gallium products. Energy Fuels (UUUU-NYSE; $14.75; Outperform rated) offers leverage to the redevelopment of a domestic US rare earth supply chain. For gallium, Rio Tinto (RIO-LSE; £76.74; Outperform rated) and Alcoa (AA-NYSE; $49.95; Market Perform rated) are emerging as prospective Western suppliers, although gallium is unlikely to become a major revenue driver for either company. For germanium, Teck Resources (TECK.B-TSX; $94.51; Restricted) remains a key non-Chinese producer and is evaluating a capacity expansion. Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-TSX; $12.11; Outperform rated) provides indirect exposure through the germanium- and gallium-bearing Kipushi deposit and its potential role in future US critical-mineral supply chains. "As a result, we expect drone and counterdrone technologies to become another important driver of government efforts to secure domestic production, strengthen processing capacity, and reduce dependence on vulnerable foreign supply chains," Heppel explained. We have already highlighted Piper Sandler's coverage of LightPath Technologies, whose germanium-free infrared materials offer a synthetic alternative for the West as Chinese export restrictions tighten the global germanium market. Beyond the critical materials covered by Heppel, Jefferies analysts initiated coverage on several critical minerals companies earlier Wednesday, including Almonty Industries. Jefferies assigned Almonty a "Buy" rating, highlighting the miner's direct public-market exposure to Western tungsten supply.  Jefferies initiates critical mineral companies Almonty, Materion, USA Rare Earth and Neo Performance with Buy; the firms are expected to benefit from increased demand for supply outside of China. Almonty (buy, PT $26.25) Sees Almonty offering public exposure to Western tungsten… — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2026 Read more here. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/03/2026 - 05:45

Actors involved

USIranRussiaChinaUkraine

Sources

  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Ukraine's Drone Warfare Devouring 4% Of Global Germanium Demand As China Chokes Supplies Our coverage of rare earths dates back to President Trump's first trade war, when we warned that "Rare Earths Are China's Most Potent Weapon In A Trade War." What followed was p…

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyEURussiaChinaUkraineTaiwan
○ 1 source

US stock futures remained largely flat ahead of the weekly jobs report, with technology contracts slightly lower while small caps lagged, despite a rise in crude oil prices. Bond yields edged down 1 basis point, seemingly disconnected from energy market movements, as market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike stood at approximately 64%.

In Asia, the Japanese yen strengthened on speculation regarding more hawkish policy from the Bank of Japan, while US economic data releases and Fed officials' speeches were scheduled for the day.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
○ 1 source

This is an entry from: Live: Iran warns US that Israeli attack in southern Lebanon could restart full-scale war Iran confirms missile and drone attacks on US bases in UAE and Kuwait 3 September 2026 12:12 BST Iran’s army says it launched missiles and suicide drones at US military bases in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait early today.

The strikes hit satellite communications systems, equipment warehouses and hangars housing American fighter jets at Kuwait’s Ahmed Al Jaber Air Base, the army said. Iranian forces also targeted US positions and radar systems at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE.

The army warned that its ground forces would answer any further American attack with a “harsh and devastating response” and continue their operations until they secured victory and punished the aggressor.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranRussiaUkraine
○ 1 source

According to US officials, American forces reportedly struck approximately 60 Iranian military targets in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday while defending commercial vessels from drone and missile attacks. These actions follow a broader US strategy, including a naval blockade, aimed at securing the waterway and exerting economic pressure on Iran since the conflict began on February 28, 2026.

The recent escalation follows a series of incidents, including US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers earlier in the week.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranRussiaChina
○ 1 source

Asia looks to store oil, gas closer to home after Strait of Hormuz crisis Asian economies are racing to build up storage capacity to reduce their exposure to conflict in the Middle East. Asia suffered some of the worst economic fallout when the United States and Israel went to war with Iran six months ago.

The region is heavily reliant on Gulf oil and gas that normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has been reduced to a trickle by Iranian attacks and a US naval blockade. Recommended Storieslist of 4 items - list 1 of 4Russia, China leaders to meet at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit - list 2 of 4People return to their flood-ravaged homes in Nepal - list 3 of 4Global coral reef coverage risks irreversible decline, new report warns - list 4 of 4Djokovic suffers shock first round exit at US Open amid tears and pain Asian countries quickly imposed fuel conservation measures as oil and gas prices surged, ranging from price caps to alternate driving days and work-from-home mandates for civil servants.

In the months since, Asia has begun seeking a more permanent solution to the biggest energy disruption in history – keeping the oil and gas it needs much closer to home. “The crisis is producing two very different kinds of investment: infrastructure that bypasses geopolitical risk, and infrastructure that eliminates exposure to imported fuel altogether,” said Parul Bakshi, a visiting research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

One of the most ambitious proposals to emerge from the crisis has come from Japan. Though highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy, Japan has weathered the crisis better than many other economies because it holds one of the world’s largest strategic oil reserves.

Tokyo wants its neighbours in Southeast Asia to follow its lead. In April, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced the $10bn POWERR Asia initiative, aimed at helping Southeast Asian economies procure oil and petroleum products and, in the long-term, build up strategic stockpiles.

At the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, Vietnam only held enough oil in its national reserves to meet the country’s needs for five to seven days, according to state media, although commercial inventories and other sources extended supplies for up to another 65 days.

Thailand held about 61 days of reserves across the public and private sectors against a 25-day mandated minimum in early March, while the Philippines was estimated to have 50-60 days of supplies in private commercial inventories. All figures were below the International Energy Agency’s 90-day minimum benchmark.

In Bangkok and Manila, the war has revived a push to establish comprehensive state-held strategic oil reserves. Last month, a parliamentary panel in the Philippines approved a bill to create a 60-day government-held reserve. Thai officials are moving forward with plans for new “cross-peninsula crude pipelines and tank farms, positioning Thailand against Singapore for Gulf crude storage”, said Ben Kiatkwankul at Maverick Consulting Group, a Bangkok-based public affairs consultancy.

In South Asia, the war has also pushed India to rethink its strategic stockpile. India had about 74 days’ worth of oil stocks as of May, more than 90 percent of which was held by state-owned enterprises, according to S&P Global. In July, India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation announced that it would build a reserve of 1.

75 million metric tonnes, or 13 million barrels, in the country’s south, adding to the company’s plans to expand existing stockpiles by 6.5 million metric tonnes. Asia’s biggest economies, meanwhile, have been exploring storage deals directly with Gulf suppliers.

“Japan, South Korea, and Singapore have longstanding relationships and partnerships with a number of Middle Eastern countries to locate storage supplies closer to their shores,” said Clara Gillispie, a senior fellow for climate and energy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“For each of those three, we’ve heard some interest in expanding the existing capacity, as well as potentially signing new understandings,” Gillispie said. “There’s also been conversations touching upon expanded relationships with India.” The United Arab Emirates and its Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) already store oil in Singapore, India, South Korea, and Japan, while Kuwait and Saudi Arabia also have stockpiles in South Korea and Japan, according to the Observer Research Foundation, a public policy think tank based in New Delhi.

ADNOC is aiming to raise its crude oil storage capacity in India to 30 million barrels, while New Delhi is considering a proposal to store some of its strategic reserves at the UAE port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, beyond the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck.

South Korean media have reported that Seoul is mulling whether to expand its oil reserves of some 146 million barrels by an additional 30-40 million barrels, up from initial plans for an extra 20 million barrels. In China, the world’s second-biggest consumer of oil after the United States, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has reinforced a belief that the country must invest in its energy security, said David Fishman, a Chinese energy policy expert at the Hong Kong-based Lantau Group.

Beijing’s latest five-year plan (FYP) for oil and gas development, which sets policy for 2026 to 2030, included provisions for more pipelines and expanded LNG storage, among other measures such as expanded deep-water drilling. State-owned pipeline operator PipeChina said in May that it was accelerating construction on some of its nearly 40 oil and gas projects, including 9,000 kilometres (5,590 miles) of domestic pipeline.

While these plans were drafted before the Iran war began, Fishman said the conflict has reinforced the rationale for such investments. “So, while Hormuz couldn’t have been the direct driver of this language appearing in the 15th FYP drafts, it certainly underlines for policymakers that this line of thinking is clearly correct, and their assumptions about chronic instability are well-founded,” Fishman said.

“Whatever internal uncertainty there might have been around the costs or effort associated with building up potentially superfluous national energy reserves will certainly have evaporated,” he said. Oxford’s Bakshi said the common thread across the region is reducing exposure to a “single fuel, supplier or chokepoint”.

“It is no longer enough to ask where the next barrel comes from,” Bakshi said. “We also have to ask how it gets there, how long we can operate without it, and whether we can reduce our need for that barrel altogether.