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strikeApr 29, 2026

US in tough spot as it tries to avoid deal that highlights its failures in Iran

Summary

Donald Trump is learning first-hand about the perils of mission creep. The US-Israel war in Iran has just passed its eighth week – twice as long as the president predicted it would take when US warplanes launched their joint attack with Israeli forces to decapitate the Iranian leadership and paralyse its military. The military attacks were successful. The predictions about the political cause-and-effect to follow were not. Iran has survived the initial strikes and remains defiant, closing the strait of Hormuz in a move that has blocked off a fifth of the global oil trade. The US has responded with its own blockade to lock in Iranian oil, inflicting losses of an estimated $500m daily on Tehran and threatening the country’s long-term energy production – but negotiations have stalled and it is not clear if the White House is willing to withstand the pain of a sustained economic war or the risk of a military operation to open the strait. “This has gone from being a war of choice to a war of necessity,” said Aaron David Miller, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment and a former US diplomat and Middle East negotiator. The war had transformed from a conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel to a “global economic crisis which shows no signs of abating”. Just this week, petrol prices in the US approached a four-year high, and they are expected to continue to rise before a crucial midterm election that could allow the Democrats to retake congress. “The status quo is not tolerable … there has to be a fix to it,” Miller said. “It strikes me that the administration is in a very tough spot.” But the solution remains elusive. One option would be to negotiate a temporary reopening of the strait of Hormuz but to delay nuclear talks on the fate of the more than 400kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) – as well as the country’s right to enrich uranium in the future. But the New York Times has reported that Trump is “unsatisfied” with Iran’s most recent proposals to open the strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic: Tehran has indicated it is unwilling to negotiate on its nuclear programme and is ready to reopen the waterway only if it is paid for transit – a concession that could set an unwelcome precedent at key conduits for shipping freight around the world. Trump has remained bullish in public, claiming on social media on Tuesday that Iran admitted to being in a “state of collapse” and that “they want us to ‘Open the Hormuz Strait,’ as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!).” But previous rounds of negotiations have ended inconclusively, and the latest attempts to dispatch his Middle East envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were cut off abruptly by the president. At heart, the Trump administration wants to avoid signing a deal that would lay bare the fact that the White House has fallen short of its goals in Iran – a measure that could be made clear by comparisons to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an Obama-era deal signed in 2015 that limited but did not eliminate Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018. Former negotiators of the JCPOA have told the Guardian that Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz, a line it was not previously willing to cross, had fundamentally altered the negotiations: Iran now has a weapon that one said was far more convenient than a nuclear weapon itself. Trump’s other options are equally unsavoury. One is to escalate with a mission to open the strait militarily. That would probably be far more difficult than the escort operations during the tanker war of the mid-1980s, when US warships convoyed with neutral shipping to run a gauntlet of Iranian and Iraqi attacks that killed more than 440 sailors, as well as dozens of US service members, and damaged 400 ships. Dennis Blair, a former head of US Pacific Command and director of national intelligence, argued in a recent article that opening the strait would be possible by placing detachments of sailors onboard an initial convoy of about 20 oil tankers, then deploying six to 10 destroyers to intercept small boats, missiles and drones, other ships and submarines to disable mines and then jets, attack helicopters, and raiding parties to counterattack against IRGC firing positions. A “small number of the weapons fired by IRGC forces would penetrate the layered convoy defenses, inflicting damage and some casualties,” he wrote. “But the navy combatants are tough, with good damage-control capabilities, and many of the tankers are huge, up to four times the size of an aircraft carrier. They do not sink from a few missiles, drones, and mines.” The other, even less palatable option is a full assault on Iran’s civilian infrastructure or an invasion force, but there are no guarantees that would coerce the government into bending to Trump’s will. The vacuum of leadership in Iran is a problem largely of the US and Israel’s own making. The targeted strikes that killed Ali Khamenei – and injured his son, the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei – removed a leader who was capable of uniting the clerical, political and military circles, including the IRGC. In a recent Truth Social post, Trump admitted as much, saying: “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know!” “The infighting is between the ‘Hardliners,’ who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the ‘Moderates,’ who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY!” But Trump has his own advisers taking a hard line on Iran – and he has also shown that he is ready to follow Benjamin Netanyahu’s lead on Iran policy. As they push increasingly for Iran to agree to no nuclear enrichment and to open the strait of Hormuz, the Iranian position appears to be hardening as well. And voices of criticism on the left and right are growing louder, especially as the war exacerbates the US’s affordability crisis just months before the midterms. “This is the outcome that Trump and Netanyahu have created,” said Matt Duss, the executive vice-president at the Center for International Policy and a former foreign policy adviser to Bernie Sanders. “Many of us warned about exactly this, but these people have this kind of weird, completely unjustified religious belief in the capacity of military force to produce magical outcomes. And once again, they’ve been shown to be completely full of crap.”

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  • Andrew RothBy Andrew Roth

    Donald Trump is learning first-hand about the perils of mission creep. The US-Israel war in Iran has just passed its eighth week – twice as long as the president predicted it would take when US warplanes launched their joint attack with Israeli forces to decapitate the Iranian le

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Advertisement Middle East Crisis US-Iran War Live: US weighs troop pullback from Gulf following damage in Iran war, report says New Delhi,UPDATED: Aug 19, 2026 02:00 IST US-Iran War Live Updates: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks with Iran were taking place or scheduled, while insisting that the Strait of Hormuz remained open.

"There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated," Trump said on Truth Social.

Iran, however, maintained that the waterway would remain closed until Washington met conditions under an interim deal signed in June, including lifting the blockade on Iranian ports, removing oil sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets and ending military operations.

The conflicting claims came as Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and special envoy, said on Monday that US-Iran contacts were "probably more robust than it's maybe ever been". Meanwhile, the UAE said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, which it assessed were targeting "maritime traffic".

Both missiles fell into the sea, according to the UAE Defence Ministry. Iran did not immediately comment. The incident was reported as a 60-day window for US-Iran peace talks expired without a breakthrough, raising fears of renewed escalation and further disruption to shipping through Hormuz.

The UAE had also recently accused Iran of attacking ADNOC vessels transiting the strait, although Tehran has not claimed responsibility. Follow indiatoday.in for live updates....Read More (Photo: X/@CENTCOM) 2 Aug 19, 2026 02:00 IST US Iran war: US weighs troop pullback from Gulf after Iran war damage, report says The US Defense Department is considering reducing its military presence in the Persian Gulf after its bases and facilities sustained damage during the war with Iran, The Washington Post reports.

The conflict has given Washington a “once-in-a-generation chance” to reassess its long-term military footprint in the Gulf, according to the report. One option under consideration is moving some US troops and military facilities further west, including to Jordan and Israel.

American refuelling aircraft have been stationed in Israel during the war. Aug 19, 2026 01:59 IST Middle East crisis: Here's what happened so far - US-Iran talks: Trump said no talks with Iran are underway or scheduled. - Trump on Hormuz: He said the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating, while the US naval blockade remains in force.

- Iran’s position: Top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Hormuz will remain closed until US demands under the June interim deal are met. - Iran’s demands: Tehran wants the US to lift the blockade on its ports, remove oil sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets and end military operations.

- Kushner’s account: Jared Kushner said on Monday that US-Iran contacts were “probably more robust than it’s maybe ever been.” - Talks stalled: A senior Iranian official said Tehran would shift to a “fully offensive” military posture as efforts to reach a permanent deal have stalled.

- UAE missile alert: The UAE said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran. - Missiles fell at sea: The UAE Defence Ministry said both missiles fell into the sea and were assessed to have been targeting “maritime traffic.” - No Iranian claim: Iran has not immediately commented on the UAE's missile allegation.

- 60-day window expires: The missile incident followed the expiry of a 60-day window for US-Iran peace talks on Monday without a breakthrough. - UAE all-clear: The UAE earlier told residents the situation was safe and asked them to resume normal activities after the missile warning.

- ADNOC vessels: The UAE has accused Iran of attacking its state-owned ADNOC vessels transiting Hormuz. Iran has not claimed responsibility for those attacks.

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President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Location: Tehran
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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

Location: Tehran
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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

Location: Tehran