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diplomacyMay 1, 2026

Why are oil prices down today while gas rates are witnessing a rise? Oil and natural gas markets move in opposite directions. Here's Brent, US WTI crude, Waha Hub prices

Summary

Why are oil prices down today while gas rates are witnessing a rise?Oil prices moved lower after news that Iran sent a proposal for new talks with the United States through Pakistan. Markets reacted because any progress in talks may reduce tensions and improve oil supply. When traders expect more oil supply in the future, prices often fall. Even though the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, the possibility of diplomacy reduced some supply fears for investors. At the same time, natural gas prices rose due to falling production in the United States. Energy companies reduced output after low spot prices in recent months. When production falls, supply becomes tighter. This supports higher prices in futures markets. Gas markets respond quickly to changes in output because storage and daily production play a large role in supply balance. Another key factor is the rise in liquefied natural gas exports. LNG exports reached record levels, which means more gas is being shipped overseas instead of staying in the domestic market. When exports increase, domestic supply falls. This pushes prices upward even if weather demand remains moderate. Pipeline limits in the Permian region also created local shortages. Gas became trapped in West Texas, which kept regional prices negative for a long period. This imbalance shows how infrastructure affects gas markets differently from oil markets. Oil prices depend more on global supply routes, while gas prices depend more on domestic production, transport, and exports. Oil prices fall after Iran sends new message for talksOil prices fell after Iranian media reported that Iran proposed new talks with the United States. The proposal was sent through Pakistan. The IRNA news agency shared the update but did not give details. West Texas Intermediate fell more than five percent and dropped below $100 per barrel. It later recovered to $101.7 by 1530 GMT. Brent crude also fell more than three percent to $106.98 before rising again to $108.4. Earlier in the year, when the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, Brent was near $73 per barrel and WTI was near $67. Investors reacted to the possibility of talks because it could lead to improved supply. Markets respond quickly to signals that conflict may ease. Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to shape supply fearsOil markets also remain influenced by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade continues to block oil exports from the Gulf. Strategic crude reserves are declining, so investors are watching supply closely. Analyst Ole Hvalbye said each week of delay before the strait reopens adds about $5 per barrel to average prices. This shows how sensitive prices remain to supply routes. Even with falling prices on Friday, long-term supply concerns still remain in the background. OPEC and OPEC+ production decision expected soonSeven members of OPEC and OPEC+ will decide production quotas on Sunday. This will be the first meeting since the United Arab Emirates left the cartel. The group is expected to increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day. However, analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen said the meeting may not change prices much. Some members such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq are unable to produce more oil due to the conflict. This means supply increases may not reach the market soon. Supply drops and LNG exports push gas higherWhile oil fell, US natural gas futures rose to a three-week high. June futures increased to $2.780 per million British thermal units. Weekly prices climbed about 10% after a fall the previous week. Gas output dropped as firms reduced production due to low spot prices. EQT, the second-largest US gas producer, cut output temporarily. Average production in the Lower 48 states fell to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day in April. This was down from 110.4 bcfd in March and 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. LNG exports reach new record levelsLiquefied natural gas exports increased demand. Gas flows to nine US LNG export plants reached a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April. This was higher than 18.6 bcfd in March and the earlier record of 18.7 bcfd in February. Rising exports increased demand even as mild weather reduced domestic usage. High exports often support prices because they remove supply from the domestic market. Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline limitsIn the cash market, Waha Hub prices in West Texas stayed negative for 60 days in a row. Pipeline limits trapped gas in the Permian region. Waha prices averaged negative $2.17 per mmBtu in 2026. In 2025 they averaged positive $1.15, and over five years they averaged $2.88. Negative prices mean producers sometimes pay to move gas due to transport limits. This shows regional market imbalance even when national prices rise. Storage levels and weather forecasts shape demand outlookMild spring weather allowed more gas to be stored earlier in the season. Analysts say the inventory surplus fell to about 7% above normal for the week ending May 1. Forecasts show near-normal weather through mid-May. Demand is expected to fall from 103.2 bcfd this week to 99.4 bcfd in two weeks. Despite lower demand forecasts, falling output and high exports keep prices supported. US supply and demand outlook for coming weeksUS dry production is expected to remain near 108 bcfd in the coming weeks. Imports from Canada remain steady near 6.8 bcfd. Exports to Mexico and LNG feedgas demand remain strong. US total demand is forecast near 103 bcfd this week. Power generation data shows natural gas provides 39% of US electricity. Coal, nuclear, wind, and solar make up the rest of the mix. This shows natural gas remains a major energy source even as renewable generation grows. FAQs Q1: Why do oil and natural gas prices often move in different directions? Oil and gas markets depend on different supply chains. Oil reacts to global politics and shipping routes, while gas depends on domestic production, storage, weather forecasts, and LNG export demand. Q2: How do LNG exports affect natural gas prices? When LNG exports rise, more gas leaves the domestic market. This reduces local supply. Lower supply can push futures prices higher even if weather demand stays near normal levels. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (Catch all the US News, UK News, Canada News, International Breaking News Events, and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily International News Updates. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (Catch all the US News, UK News, Canada News, International Breaking News Events, and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) 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  • Gandharv WaliaBy Gandharv Walia

    Why are oil prices down today while gas rates are witnessing a rise?Oil prices moved lower after news that Iran sent a proposal for new talks with the United States through Pakistan. Markets reacted because any progress in talks may reduce tensions and improve oil supply. When tr…

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Key points: Bitcoin diverges from US stocks as Trump says Strait of Hormuz “open” Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD building on the week’s gains as the S&P 500 bounced from 7,696, its lowest level since Aug. 4. BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView This came after US president Donald Trump posted a map of the closed Strait of Hormuz oil route to Truth Social where it was labeled “new US territory.

” Both the US and Iran lay claim to control of Hormuz, with Trump threatening US ally Oman with military action over its plans to work with Iran on charging tolls to shipping traffic. In a subsequent post, Trump confirmed that further diplomacy with Iran was not on the agenda.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he wrote. S&P 500 one-day chart.

Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView As on Monday, oil avoided major volatility, with WTI crude down 1% at the time of writing at $84 per barrel. US government bonds continued to show strain, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.34%, its highest since January 2007.

“Bond prices are sending warnings,” BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu wrote in a research note quoted by the New York Times. Yu said that the surge came as “investors demand more compensation for inflation risk,” while also attributing the upside to government borrowing.

US 30-year bond yields one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView BTC price faces crunch rebound test Updating X followers on BTC/USD, trader and analyst Aksel Kibar eyed the culmination of a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $62,300.

Related: Bitcoin price spike to $64.5K was ‘low-volume liquidity trap’: Analysis “If $BTCUSD is going to rebound, it has to come from here,” he argued on Monday. Kibar offered a $53,000 target in the event of the head-and-shoulders structure failing, with $76,000 a potential upside target should the rebound sustain.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com Previously, Cointelegraph reported that underwater investors were contributing to Bitcoin’s inability to break higher. Its rebound to $64,500 also stopped short of an overhead trend line, the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA).

This moving average is now in place as resistance at $65,827.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Trump says no talks underway with Iran, Hormuz blockade remains in place US president says no discussions are taking place or planned with Tehran and reiterates that the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains fully operational Washington: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks are taking place with Iran and that no discussions are currently scheduled between the two countries.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump also said the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains "in full force and effect." The president did not provide further details regarding US policy towards Iran or any potential future diplomatic engagement.

Trump's comments come amid continued tensions between Washington and Tehran and renewed focus on security and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes.

Location: Tehran
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Iran had “won both the war and diplomacy,” claiming those who initially sought Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” later sought negotiations. Speaking at an event, Araghchi said Iran resisted for days against what he described as “the world’s largest apparent military,” alongside another army claiming military power and with the support of nearly all Western countries and some other states inside and outside the region, according to the Tasnim news agency.

“Those who were seeking unconditional surrender, shortly after the war began, begged for negotiations,” Araghchi said. He claimed Tehran initially rejected a ceasefire and continued fighting until reaching a point where the other side accepted a ceasefire and negotiations “on Iran’s terms.

” “We fought with strength, and we negotiated with strength,” he said, adding that many foreign ministers had told him: “You won both the war and diplomacy.” Araghchi’s remarks came after US President Donald Trump called on Iran on Monday to give up and “raise the white flag.

Location: Tehran
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- Iran demands US lift sanctions and return frozen assets to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Iran's Parliament Speaker warns closure of Strait continues until US ends military threats - Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait, impacting energy security Iran has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets a set of conditions, including the release of frozen Iranian assets, an end to oil sanctions and what Tehran describes as a US blockade and military threats.

Al-Arabiya English reported that Iran's Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Trump administration must meet the conditions before Tehran considers reopening the strategic waterway. “Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Ghalibaf said.

Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. pic.twitter.com/fl2RrKnT1R— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) August 18, 2026 Ghalibaf also warned that Iran was prepared to respond more forcefully depending on the actions of its adversaries.

ALSO READ: 'We Control Hormuz': Trump To Declare Strait As US Territory? Here's What President Says The comments add a new condition to an already fragile diplomatic environment, with the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of concerns over global energy supplies.

Around one-fifth of global oil supply typically passes through the waterway, making any prolonged disruption a major risk for crude markets, shipping and energy security. Earlier, Press TV reported that Ghalibaf is scheduled to travel to Baghdad on Wednesday at the head of a high-level Iranian delegation for discussions with Iraqi leaders.

The talks are expected to cover regional developments and bilateral cooperation, including border security, counterterrorism, economic ties and implementation of existing agreements. Iraqi media have also reported that the agenda could include a proposal concerning Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The visit comes as regional governments grapple with the implications of continued disruption in one of the world's most important energy corridors. ALSO READ: Hormuz Tensions: Another Ship Hit By Unknown Projectile, Says UKMTO Centre The security situation in the waterway has also remained tense.

The UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency, or UKMTO, said a vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. “The Company Security Officer has reported that the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz,” UKMTO said.

The impact damaged the vessel's engine room and resulted in a crew casualty, the agency said. The remaining crew was being assisted by the Omani coastguard. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.

Location: Tehran